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Occam's razor applies here, I think. To make the Arkenstone a Silmaril means assuming a complex chain of improbabilities, starting with a physical explanation as to how the Dwarves could have shaped the unmarrable to begin with, not to mention how the devil it made it from a fiery chasm in drowned Beleriand to Erebor.
Whereas positing that they are two different jewels requires no assumptions at all.
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The entire plot of The Lord of the Rings could be said to turn on what Sauron didn’t know, and when he didn’t know it.
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