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phantom's analysis of wolf/bear dynamics seems mostly sound. Which doesn't mean anything.
The huge thing about phantom is that he sounds basically the same whether he's innocent or not. He always sounds smart and reasonable, which makes him really really dangerous to whatever side is opposite him. So he often gets Night-killed fairly early in the game. If he doesn't, he's usually evil: (phantom: "I don't understand why I haven't gotten killed yet! Probably they're hoping to waste a day-lynch on me..." *cackles madly*).
So if phantom is still alive, especially with this double-kill system we've got, by Day 4 I say we lynch him.
Other Old Player dynamics: if everyone suspects Fea, she's innocent.
If nobody suspects Fea, she's guilty.
Now, these theories were based on when these were all still young and callow players like me (though I don't think phantom has changed much), so they ought to be taken with a grain of salt.
But I'm still going to keep them in mind as the game goes on.
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