[Brinniel]

Deciding to kill Shasta...

Originally Posted by Brinn

As tempted as I am to kill Boromir, I would really just rather find the seer and I don't think it's him. Because if it was, he would've dreamt of Noggie by now and instead he actually dropped suspicions of him. I doubt tp is the seer either, and I think it's also less likely he'll be suspected...though he still won't look totally innocent.

Shasta's another who is probably gonna be labeled as a guaranteed innocent. But what are the chances that he's the seer?

tp seemed so sure the seer already dreamt of him...if that's true, there weren't exactly many people who were certain of his innocence and we could pick them out. But then again, I think this is just another ploy of tp's.

From now on, I'm just gonna stop trusting my vibes...

Originally Posted by morm

Who would you think the more likely of the two is? Tummy seems to have some trust in me know but it could be a bluff...I think Boro is the most likely and I've got a good idea of what I can say tomorrow if he is. I would say that I figured him to be the seer and was helping him along so that he could have a very vocal attack on somebody that is not a wolf and at the same time make him a suspect using fairly lame accusations in an attempt to keep the wolves off of him.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I'll just let you know I'm having an in depth look at the village and trying to narrow the list down for possible seers. Considering how long the thread is, this may take awhile...

tp and Boro will take especially long. I still don't think they look terribly seerish, but I still need to have a better look at them. It could be a good idea just to kill Boro regardless...he could be quite dangerous as an almost known innocent...

Originally Posted by Shasta

I need to read the thread later but I thought Shasta was so rushed to get tp saved... I had tried to pretend I'm getting a seer hint from him and went for tp and he runs in...? Could it be he actually is the seer?

He is very high on my list of toNight's kill.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Most Likely Not the Seer:

Gil: I think his inactivity says it all; he'd probably be around if he were one. And even if he was, it doesn't matter since he's not around.

Greenie: She was very helpful in providing lists. But her thoughts on people aren't consistent enough from Day to Day for a seer (such as going back and forth, and also suspecting innocent players she previously did think innocent).

Gwath: If he is the seer, he hasn't done a very good job (and after seeing him as the ranger, I think he'd make a good seer). He's just been very submarine-ish and hasn't really given any clear indication of innocence or guilt towards anyone.

Kath: Like Greenie, her lists and thoughts aren't consistent for a seer.

Not sure:

Nerwen: Looking at her posts, I don't see any indication of possible seerness, but I don't want to eliminate the possibility.

Rune: I'm doubtful that he is, but I can't be sure. The one person he's been consistent with is suspecting me, but that's quiet typical. And if he were a seer who dreamt of me, I think he'd go after me much more viciously.

Sally: Has been relatively quiet for herself, and I'm not sure which way that points to. Her comment toDay about "If I were the seer..." made me wonder. But then again, I would think a Sally seer wouldn't miss the opportunity to vote for a rep.

Boromir: He doesn't make lists, which makes it so much more difficult. If he were the seer, I'd say he dreamt of tp on Night 1 and Aganzir on Night 2. Or perhaps that's what he wants us to think. But what throws me off are his comments about Nogrod. On Day 2, he kept saying, "I would feel uncomfortable lynching Nogrod today, I need more time on him." So if he were a seer, it'd be logical for him to dream Nogrod. But then the next Day he finds Nogrod innocent and votes him as rep. The odds are either 1) Boro set up a ploy to make us think he's the seer, but by assuming Noggie's innocent, it has backfired, or 2) Boro is the seer and he's lying about Nogrod's innocence so that we don't think he is the seer (though that is a bit risky because if he dies at Night and the others are left to trace his steps, they'll assume Nogrod's innocent). So I think option one is more likely, but we can't be sure.

Possible seers:

Ilya: She's in the category simply because her suspicions towards innocence has been pretty consistent. If she were the seer, her dreams would possibly be: Greenie, Lommy, Boromir, or Rune. The only thing that makes me doubt seerness is that she's a newbie and I don't know how likely it'd be for Fea to assign her such an important role.

Lommy: Again, she's consistent. Based on her posts, her dreams would be something like: Night 1: Legate. Night 2: Ka Night 3: Sally or Kath. I think the first two dreams would make sense for Lommy to choose based on meta-reasons.

tp: Okay, it's possible he's the seer as there are some seerish qualities in his posts. Though I think he could be just as easily setting up his posts to have us think he's the seer (as he said himself). If he were the seer, his dreams would be: Night 1: Boromir. Night 2: Aganzir. Night 3: Not as sure...possibly Kath or Sally. He plays so risky and makes things so obviously, I still think he's not the seer and trying to set us up. But still, we can't eliminate him as a possibility.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I'd be happiest with killing Lommy or Shasta. Lommy looked pretty innocent by most toDay and Shasta will be another practically known innocent with his decisive vote. And these two look like the most likely seers to me.

If it's between tp and Boro, I would want to kill Boro. Not because of the possibility of him being a seer, but because I'm guessing that toMorrow a lot of people will see him as innocent and that could make it dangerous for us.

Originally Posted by morm

I would like to hear Nogrod's take on Lommy the Seer. I think those quotes you provided would indicate that she early on dreampt of Ka and was just waiting to be able to lynch her without arousing our suspicion...still I want to kill Boro

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The thing I have with Shasta is his rapid jump to save tp (it really looked he was in a terrible hurry). I mean, I don't think he has been that positive about tp on the earlier Days. Him being the seer would explain those things.

I haven't thought of Lommy as a seer but this is for the lack of personal insight into it rather than not thinking it perfectly possible.

Boro then? I understand your points morm but I still think he is bluffing that seer thing (or then double-bluffing us). His wishing to have me around might be genuine but it doesn't mean he thinks I'm innocent. Quite on the contrary I'd say. The more Days those two stay around the harder it will for them to be believable - unless the seer comes forwards.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I think it's not so much that Shasta went through the effort of saving tp, but that he condemned Ka that looks seerish. Because all Day he kept talking about how he wanted to lynch tp and if he had dreamt him as innocent, I don't think he would've done that. Meanwhile in previous Days, he kept saying he wanted a closer look at Ka. As soon as Ka came into the picture as a lynching candidate, he started to back off on tp then said he would be interested in voting Ka. So I think he dreamt of her, not tp. Also, I want to point out this:

In the WW game I modded, Shasta was the ranger and successfully protected Kath. He wasn't allowed to protect her the next Night, so of course she died. Shasta was incredibly frustrated about this. I even have a quote from that game:

Plus he PMed me, stating that he really thought Kath deserved an explanation for her death.

The reason I bring this up is because his frustrations towards tp's claims that he "sacrificed" Aganzir remind me of that other game. Which makes me think it even more likely that he was a seer who dreamt of Aganzir and is upset that a known innocent is dead.

As for Lommy, the main reasons I suspect her of seerness is that her thoughts of players I mentioned as possible dreams match up from Day to Day....and those dreams are of players I can imagine her choosing. There's also this:

I could imagine Lommy the seer getting frustrated at tp for his certainty that he and Boro were dreamt because she in fact hadn't dreamt of either of them.

Originally Posted by Brinn

So in order, who I'd like to kill:

1) Shasta. He looks the most seerish out of everyone in my opinion. And I can see it amusing Fea greatly to give him such a role to test him after everyone called him psychic (and if she hadn't given him the seer role, I think she would've made him a wolf which he obviously is not). Also, if we kill Shasta, even if he's not the seer Nogrod can try to defend his vote saying he thought Shasta was giving a seer hint pointing towards tp's guilt. If Shasta's alive, it won't be as easy to use that defense since bringing up the possibility of Shasta as the seer may look suspicious in itself.

2) Lommy. If I'm horribly wrong and Shasta's not the seer, then I think she is. Because compared to other players, she looks most likely.

3) Boromir. He's a dangerous fellow, but probably not the seer. I'd like to see him dead sometime soon, but not until after we get the seer. I also worry that his death could possibly lead some negative trails back to us.

Perhaps we should ask Fea if we can have one kill per wolf. That would make life much easier. But then again, she denied our request to kill the seer so she probably wouldn't grant this request either.

The problem is I was so sure Boro was an ordo pretending to be a seer pretending to be an ordo pretending to be a seer. So very complicated...

Originally Posted by morm

Okay Shasta or Lommy are fine with me but if tummy or Boro turn out to be the seer, you both should eat a shoe. However if Shasta or Lommy are I will eat one.

Nogrod, I'm going between Shasta and Lommy. Obviously Brinn prefers Shasta...what is you take?

Originally Posted by morm

Okay, I've thought about it and I think it's more strange that Lommy has moderately suspected Ka the whole time but not with any real gusto but she started the lynch against her. My vote is to go for her tonight. I don't think we will hear from Noggie in time so what do you say Brinn, Shasta or Lommy?

Originally Posted by Brinn

Hmm...it's a tough choice as either of them could easily be the seer. But I think I'd rather go for Shasta toNight...because even if he doesn't turn out to be the seer, he's basically gonna be a known innocent toMorrow for that vote...even more so than Lommy. Plus, his death could give Nogrod the opportunity to defend himself, as I mentioned earlier.

So my vote is for Shasta. If he isn't the seer, we can go after Lommy the next Night...unless something big happens toMorrow

Originally Posted by morm

I've asked myself this, of our two candidates who is more likely the seer and I think I am now persuaded to Shasta and here is why. Based on the voting who is more likely to be the seer. I looked at it this way; what are the odds that Lommy would have dreampt of Ka, her vote was not made to save phantom so it's not an issue of her dreaming of him. I don't think it's very likely that she would have dreampt of Ka because Ka was more or less a non-entity and not a big player, she doesn't strike me as an early dream candidate. Shasta on the other hand seemed to want to save tummy who is a much more likely candidate for a dream, although the same could and should be said about Boro, but like you said he could be bluffing. Shasta is far more likely to vote Ka to save phantom because he knows tummy is innocent and he knows that Ka is not the seer so why not take a chance...however in his case this turned against him becasue while he bagged a wolf he exposed himself. I will send off the vote to Fea.

It would be nice to kill off Lommy if for no other reason than to free up computer time for Noggie.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Apparently we're allowed to PM for seven more minutes...

So let me say gosh darn....I was really hoping to be right. But oh well, at least killing him wasn't the worst idea. But I'm all for getting Lommy toMorrow Night unless something major occurs toDay.

I won't only eat a shoe, I'll eat an entire boot.