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Old 05-15-2020, 12:23 AM   #1303
Eönwë
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Ok, let's analyse the votes day-by-day:

Day 1
We can only tell anything if Brinn turns out to be evil, otherwise it's three (as far as the wolves knew at least) innocents.

If Brinn is evil, then THE Ka could theoretically be trying a kind-of-dangerous-but-not-too-dangerous wolf-on-wolf. All non-Brinn voters other than Brinn herself (Boro, Kath, Shasta, Lottie, Greenie, me, Lommy) could also theoretically be suspicious too. So if Brinn is evil, only Rune really looks good.

Summary: if Brinn is evil, Rune looks good.




Day 2

Lhuna's relatively safe vote for Lommy could be wolf-on-wolf.

Greenie's vote for Mac could've been a way to protect Lommy or Brinn if Greenie and at least one of them is evil.

If Lottie is evil, Rune and THE Ka's votes could be safe 'throwaway' wolf-on-wolf votes to come back to later. If she's good and Mac interest seemed to be waning (I seem to remember Sally's at least came suddenly), it could have been a late attempt to start a counterwaggon to Hui's

Boro's vote directly allowed for a chance to save Hui.

Lottie's Hui vote could have been semi-dangerous wolf-on-wolf, but is admittedly a bit risky.


Probably the only really suspicious vote this Day was Boro's, and to a lesser extent the Lottie-voters (Rune and THE Ka) - the rest are a lot more speculative.


Summary: Bad vote from Boro, kind-of-bad votes from Rune and THE Ka.




Day 3
Hard to tell disentangle this mess. Wolves could easily hide among Sally voters. Sally voters after the reveal (Lottie, Shasta, Brinn, Boro) are more suspicious than before (THE Ka, me, Greenie, Lommy). Rune's late vote looks kind of throwaway, and may have been planted as a way to bring back Zil suspicion in future (as a I mentioned previously, it looked like the Zil vote was semi-planned). Kath's was earlier, so it was still possible to quarantine him at that point.

Summary: Lottie, Shasta, Brinn, Boro, and Rune are a little suspicious based on this.





Day 4
Non-Lhuna voters after the QT vote are generally more suspicious: Lottie, Greenie, Rune, Boro , with Rune and Boro looking the worst of these (really trying to keep Lhuna from being quarantined). The only Lhuna-voter that could have been hiding is Brinn - that's the first Lhuna vote where her fate was already sealed.

Summary: Rune and Boro especially bad, followed by Lottie, Greenie, and Brinn.





Day 5
Hard to analyze. I'm still pretty suspicious of anyone who didn't vote Rune, but we know at least one innocent did that so (and clearly there aren't 5 wolves left), so I'll have to think about it.
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