I'm back! Did you miss me?
Sally, you voted for me! Now how can I get scried multiple times if you go and get me lynched! It was most inconsiderate of you. And aren't you even from the same state as I am? Where's your sense of regional brotherhood?
Oh, and as far as deciding who we should try and lynch, the EW or WWs, does it really matter much who we gun for?
In my opinion we're just as likely to lynch a WW gunning for the EW as we are if we were actually trying to lynch a WW. It's not like we have any concrete knowledge to work with. On Day 1 in particular we're just taking a blind shot in the dark. Heck, if we'd purposefully try and lynch the Seer we'd probably have just as good a chance of lynching a WW.
Here are the lynching odds for today-
Ordo- 71%
Gifted- 11%
WW- 11%
Wizard- 7%
If everything today and tonight go according to the odds, tomorrow we will have 2 Wizards, 4 WWs, 3 gifteds, and 16 Ordos. So that would make the lynch odds tomorrow-
Ordo- 64%
WW- 16%
Gifted- 12%
Wizard- 8%
Just something to chew on.
And I have been seeing some of you saying that the scenario I outlined earlier was overly pessimistic. All right then. I'll run a different scenario.
This time, let us assume that the village and the GW, after Day 1, have 50% success at finding WWs- in other words, in
every single Night/Day cycle a WW is either lynched or scried by the GW. If you ask me that would be quite an accomplishment. But let's suppose we actually pull it off. What would that mean for our numbers?
(I'm not counting the Wizards in these tallies)
Day 2- 19-4
Day 3- 16-4
Day 4- 15-4
Day 5- 12-4
Day 6- 9-4
Day 7- 6-4
Day 8- LOSE
So, as we can see, even if we have 50% WW-finding success, by the time we are at Day 5 the village will already have a worse villager-WW ratio than other villages start with. Day 6 we'd be in trouble, Day 7 we'd need a miracle, and Day 8 the game would be over.
So, even if we find a WW in every single cycle, we're still probably dead if we haven't found the EW by Day 6. But before that would be very nice.
This is the point I'm trying to make on the issue of finding WWs as opposed to finding the EW. If we find the EW early, we probably win. If we don't find the EW, it doesn't matter how many WWs we find, we'll still lose.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ka
I thought tp always wants attention?
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Ah, I see that
Ka has me figured out.
Yes, yes, I
do want attention. I'm thinking it will increase my odds of being scried. I did the same thing in the last Dueling Wizard village. It only partly worked though- the GW did indeed scry me, but the EW instead of scrying me elected to send the WWs after me the very same night.
I'll never forgive you for that
Roa!