Group A
Code:
Valimar 4 3-1
Armenelos 4 3-2
The Havens 1 3-4
Barrow-Downs 1 2-4
Valimar and Armenelos seem to dominate the group and the most likely outcome would be that they will qualify leaving The Havens and The Barrow-Downs to the group-phase. But it is also possible all teams end up with four points each and it will be up to comparing the goal differences. But that would require a sort of a double-surprise as both Armenelos and Valimar can secure their qualification with a draw.
The numbers would also side with Valimar and Armenelos qualifying. Their goal keepers Manwë and Tar-Atanamir are way on another level than Amandil and Alien. Also Valimar is the superbly defending team and Armenelos attacks the best (at the moment the stats say The Havens attacks slightly more and with similar percentages than Armenelos but they haven’t played against the defencive powerhouse of Valimar unlike Armenelos – so that stat will change after the last games).
Armenelos vs. Barrow-Downs
Armenelos should win the Barrow-Downs quite confidently were it not for Bombadil who can change games almost single-handedly - well depending on the opponent. Facing a strong Valar-defence even Bombadil was made look more like a mortal – and Eriador beat then 3-0 in the friendlies (whether Bombadil was playing for real in that game remains in obscurity though).
It is very improbable Armenelos loses the game but a draw is a possibility – even if the AKM actually thinks the wise way to put one’s money is betting on an Armenelos win.
The AKM predicts: Armenelos wins 2-1 (or 3-1).
Valimar vs. The Havens
Arien is far from her glorious radiance with the new team but everyone is looking at her to start to deliver and she did score a goal on the last round. Meanwhile Lórien has risen up to answer the fans’ call with Ingwë, the High King of all Elves also finding his pace. So even if Arien still finds herself unsecure with her new team, it seems Valimar can score also without her – even if her awakening would finally make the team really dangerous also offensively.
Whatever, Valimar’s defences are just, well one of the best in the tournament – if not the best. And even if Eärendil would be “just the guy” to score against them – and a great striker in his own right – it just doesn’t seem like enough. and it is just because of Eärendil that the AKM will predict The Havens will score one.
The AKM predicts: Valimar wins 2-1.
An added factor: Now it wouldn’t be Arda Cup if there weren’t these hidden agendas… so whether Manwê’s dislike of Ar-Pharazôn and his likes crowding the Armenelos-team is enough for them to purposefully lose to their friends with the Havens allowing them a chance to qualify instead of Armenelos is a question worth asking oneself. Do they have any influence on Bombadil is another matter – for the Barrow-Downs would also need to win to make that possible… and that sounds unlikely without some divine intervention – which again, as the question begs, isn’t out of the question.
Group B
Code:
AC Beleriand 6 5-2
Inter Beleriand 3 3-3
Dwarves Utd. 3 2-3
Gondolin 0 2-4
AC Beleriand has practically secured their qulification already while the hosts Gondolin is almost certainly out – and thus it would seem to be a fight for the second qualification between Inter Belelriand and Dwarves United – with Inter the heavy favourites to qualify as they play Gondolin when Dwarves need to meet AC Beleriand. And that’s what the AKM will predict - but not without some reservations.
If Dwarves Utd. loses to AC Beleriand (which is more likely than not) and Gondolin wins Inter with one goal all three teams end up with the same points having cross-won each other – but Inter and Gondolin have similar and better goal-differentials than Dwarves Utd. dropping them off. And then we’d be seeing some penalty shoot-outs. If Gondolin wins with two goals or more they will qualify.
Dwarves Utd. has a chance of qualifying if they win. They can also qualify with a draw if Gondolin beats Inter Beleriand. Then again Inter Beleriand willl strongly disagree with both these scenariois – and the AKM believes their will shall actually prevail.
AC Beleriand vs. The Dwarves United
Now AC Beleriand is both the most active attacker and the most dangerous one in this group – actually one of the best in the whole tournament. At the same time Marach has turned out the coolest goalie of the group and AC Beleriand’s defences the hardest to break through. So even if Dwarves Utd’s more offensive playing style of this year has surprised and delighted many, with AC Beleriand they are having just a level too tough an opponent.
Celebrimbor is a mighty player but hardly match for his grandpa and uncles – and Aulë can take in only as much – but maybe Galadriel will prove the secret weapon messing with Fëanor’s head?
Well if that, then others than Fëanor will score the goals needed – and they, especially Aegnor and Eöl, have showed it in the last games they can do it.
The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins 3-1 (or 2-0).
Inter Beleriand vs. Gondolin
One could say team Gondolin is the prodigal son of this group: they attack and shoot as actively as AC Beleriand but have scored only two goals while AC Bel has scored five with the same amount of shots…But the wasted opportunities are not their only problem – Rôg is. That sounds like being rude but it is also true: while all the other keepers of the group have saving-percentages from 73-78%, Rôg’s is a disappointing 63,6%.
Inter Beleriand on the other hand has shown efficient finishing – and why not as Maedhros and Fingon are as dangerous they’ve ever been. It seems after the splendid last season Beren has had some problems fitting into the team (1+2 in four games would be good for most of the players but people naturally anticipate more from him). But if he does find his place there it is going to make Inter Beleriand a lot more dangerous team.
That said, it is going to be a tough match indeed. Gondolin did force Hithulm into a draw in the friendlies and will not give up their chance of qualification in front of the home-crowds – so Inter, lacking the stamina and aggressiveness of AC Beleriand will face a tough evening if they wish to win the game. The problem for Gondolin though is that even a draw might be enough for Inter Beleriand – if AC Bel wins Darves Utd. in the other game.
The AKM predicts: draw 2-2 (or Inter Beleriand wins 2-1).
Group C
Code:
Real Valinor 6 5-1
Hithlum 3 5-4
Doriath 1 1-3
Shire-Bree Utd. 1 2-5
Real Valinor is one of the few teams that have already secured their qualification 100%. They could lose to Shire-Bree 0-6 but would still qualify. Even if both the home-team Doriath and Shire-Bree have their chances of qualifying the AKM thinks Hithlum will take the other qualifying position: after seeing the way they crushed Shire-Bree it is hard to see how Doriath could challenge them for real.
So one game has no relevance to the other team involved – unless one thinks of tactical issues aka. Real rather wishing to go to the “lower” bracket and avoid meeting FC Valinor & AC Beleriand (well there they’d have T-I-G to face – a team most traditional teams would like to leave to others to deal with). Although that result would require both a big loss to Real and Doriath being able to beat Hithlum. It is hard to se Real trying that way.
Which means the winner of the other game decides the other qualifier – and only a few would bet on Doriath on that.
Real Valinor vs. Shire-Bree United
Real Valinor is just on a different class from Shire-Bree. A simple comparison might do well to explicate it: Shire-Bree’s most dangerous player and the soul of their team, Gandalf, is the apprentice of Nienna, just a Real Valinor defender (aka. not a star of their team – just a solid back). Also the intimidating power of the Nazgûls would seem nonexistent when facing the Valar, Maiar and Noldor based line of the opposing team.
And what is worst to Shire-Bree: Real Valinor has one of the most aggressive offences while their own defences are one of the worst in the whole tournament – Halbarad seriously fighting for the position of the worst goalie in the tournament with his 54,5% saving-percentage.
The AKM predicts: Real Valinor wins 3-0.
Doriath vs. Hithlum
It looks pretty grim for the homeside. They need to win Hithlum and that is a mighty task against the offencive machine they have against them. Hithlum has kind of underperformed in their friendlies and the first round, but their 4-1 victory over Shire-Bree last round kind of showed what they are cabable of.
The hope the hometeam has relies then on defence. Melian is quite a wizard in it. And maybe with some fast counter-attacks Mablung or Elwë could score from? Huor sure isn’t one of the hottest goalies… But even if Doriath’s defences were capable, the Hithlum offence just looks overwhelming: Túrin, Húrin, Beleg, Hador Lorindol… and even if a Balrog would not be a cause for overt “fear and trembling” for the Doriath offences he would be an obstacle enough to make it hard for Elwë and Mablung to break free from.
Doriath will not be an easy opponent to Hithlum – the game has indeed the ingredients of a classic brewing with all the old friendships, debts and rivalries. But the AKM will still see Hithlum the winners.
The AKM predicts: Hithlum wins 2-0 (or 2-1).
Group D
Code:
FC Valinor 6 6-0
Barad Dûr 4 3-2
Gondor 1 1-3
Isengard 0 1-6
FC Valinor is another team that has already secure qualification – while Isengard is another team that has no chance of qualifying any more. Now how much these facts affect the results of the last round is hard to say: some play seriously just for the virtue or honour of it while others might just not give a darn. Or whether there are some tactical considerations that overrun pride? No-one knows.
The gret interest for this group surely is in the game between Gondor and Isengard: if Gondor manages to win Isengard while FC Valinor holds Barad-Dûr at bay it will mean Gondor qualifies – while Barad-Dûr needs to go at least for the least possible disadvantage with the goal-difference. So will FC Valinor lighten up to score a lot or not?
Gondor will need a lot of goals against Isengard while Barad-Dûr needs to lose FC Valinor as little as possible (or to draw or win of course). And how will FC Valinor and Isengard take their role in this fight for qualification between the two other teams?
FC Valinor vs. Barad-Dûr
It is hard to see FC Valinor having any symphaties towards Sauron. On the contrary it looks more like a game they’d love to win – and with players like Curufin, Celegorm, Huan and Eönwe in the team it looks improbable they would play lazily even if they are already qualified.
Barad-Dûr’s defence has thus far shown some qualities but it will be put in a totally different test with the attack of FC Valinor, and even if the wizards might prove worthy recruits on this game it hardly looks they’re going to keep FC from scoring.
Now whether FC Valinor would purposefully lose to get a place on the lower bracket is a possibility you might imagine players like Curufin or Celegorm to entertain – but as it would demand a loss to Sauron – well forget it. Their honour would not admit it.
The AKM predicts: FC Valinor wins 3-0 (3-1).
Gondor vs. Isengard
This game should end in a win for Gondor – not the least because Isengard has no chances to qualify any more while Gondor has all the reason to play it with full stamina. Does that mean Gondor has all the pressure while Isengard can play pressure-free? Well it does – and that could be a problem for Gondor.
A second problem for Gondor is that even if the ents, Uruk-Hai, a Nazgûl and a wizard were no serious opposition to Sauron and his minions aided by a few wizards, or the Valar & Maiar and Noldorian heroes aided by Thorondor – team Gondor only consists of men and there might be a difference here called intimidation…
So it will be a lot closer game the stats might tell one. That said the AKM still believes Gondor will win the day – or at least draw, which would be the victory for Saruman, being able to aid his master in the end.
The AKM predicts Gondor wins 2-1 (or a draw 1-1).
Group E
Code:
Eriador 6 3-1
Wilderland 2 5-5
Erebor 1 3-4
Misty Mts. 1 3-4
Eriador has cleared their qualification already – actually they have secured their place as number 1 of the group which means they will play most probably against Barad-Dûr or Gondor on the first round of the qualifications – a much more reasonable opposition many other teams will have. So are they feeling too good already? Well they shouldn’t even if their defences seem to work. Thus far for they kept reasonably strong attack of Erebor at bay – this round they will be tested Wilderland who can’t afford to lose and will thusly come with full strength against them.
Basically all the other three teams have a chance to qualify which predicts a hot last round at Erebor and Mirkwood. And to make it even more interesting, the one of the three having two points (Wilderland) is playing the thusly unbeaten Eriador at their homeforest (well home for Thranduil and kind of for some others) while the two with only one point meet at the Arkenstone Arena.
What that means is the following: If either Erebor or Misty Mts. wins their mutual game Wilderland is out unless it wins it’s own game against Eriador. In the case Erebor and Misty Mts. draw Wilderland’s hopes reside in the number of goals they have scored – and it has an upper hand there at the moment but sadly is facing a team who has only allowed one goal thus far while it’s rivals are not exactly masters of defence when clashing against each other. So all the three will wish to score – a lot.
Eriador vs. Wilderland
Eriador kept Smaug and a Nazgûl at bay so there is no need to think Scatha and a lesser Nazgûl would break down their defences. Thranduil, playing in front of his homecrowds might be a bit tricksier, especially aided by the first elves, if compared to Bard and Bolg they totally shut out.
That said Eriador blocked the attacking frenzy of Erebor neatly letting them only shoot 3/12 and there is to begin with no reason to believe they wouldn’t be able to contain Wilderland’s attacking fury as well. But there is a but – and that is that Wilderland is desperate for a win and will bring forth all they have.
Adding to that Eriador’s somewhat easy-going attitude to the games aka that they are not trying to win every game 6-0 if less is enough creates kind of an interesting situation were defender-champions team Eriador already belly-full meets attacking prowess of Wilderland crazy for a win…
The AKM predicts (after some serious to and fro): Draw 2-2 (or Eriador wins 2-1).
Erebor vs. Misty Mountains
Unless Wilderland surprises most everyone with a win over Eriador then the winner of this game will qualify – and the hungry homecrowds want and see Erebor to be that team. The problem is that even if there were not too many betting on Misty Mts. to have any say in this group before the tournament, now at the crucial moment they actually seem to have some. It is clear Misty Mts. is one of the most positive surprises this year.
Erebor sure has the backing of the frenzied homeside behind them but otherwise the stats look perplexingly even.
After both teams have met Wilderland and Eriador they have the same draw (with Wilderland) and a loss (to Eriador with one goal) and thus the same goal-difference, and actually also the same numbers of goals scored vs. allowed (3-4), and both have allowed about as many shots (Erebor 12/30 vs. Misty Mts. 13/30).
The difference between the two lies in the fact that Erebor shoots overall about 30% - and on target 25% - more than Misty Mts. But on the other side of the coin Misty Mts. has been 25% more accurate on their scoring and Chief Wolf’s saving percentage of 69,2% actually beats that of Beorn’s 66,7% - even if the difference there isn’t that remarkable (Beorn has let 4/12 shots in while Chief Wolf has let in 4/13 – so a one shot difference).
Statistically it does smell of a draw – but the AKM feels there is a slight edge favouring the home-team.
The AKM predicts: Erebor wins 3-2 (or draw 2-2).
Group F
Code:
Nargothrond 4 5-2
Tirion 4 3-1
The Sea 2 3-3
Minas Tirith 0 0-5
No one has secured qualification from this group but Minas Tirith has lost their hopes for it and are out. So it is a threeway game here – and it might end up hair-risingly close.
Whatever happens in the other game, the winners of the game between Nargothrond and Tirion will qualify – and Nargothrond will qualify also with a draw. But those are the only safe results and everything else is up in the air.
To put it into a nutshell. So Nargothrond qualifies with a win and with a draw. If they lose to Tirion they can still advance if The Sea doesn’t win Minas Tirith – but that surely is hypothetical. Tirion in turn qualifies with a win, but with a draw it goes down to goal-differentials, assuming The Sea beats MT naturally. In case of a draw between Nargothrond and Tirion the following takes place: if the Sea wins MT with one goal Tirion qualifies, if the difference between The Sea and MT is more than two goals The Sea qualifies. But if the difference is exactly two goals, well then it goes more subtle as the goal difference would be the same – and then the number of goals made overall would decide – and as the starting point is the same (three goals made by both teams) it means whichever team scores more on the last round qualifies.
The Sea has the most uncertain future of all the three contenders as even (the most probable) win will not secure their qualification – but a draw or loss would mean certain disqualification. Now if either teams of the other game loses the game (aka. it is not a draw) The Sea qualifies just winning Minas Tirith. But if the other game ends up in a draw they need to win preferably with three goals.
So both Tirion and The Sea wish to score a lot and Nargothrond’s philosophy has always been outscoring the opponents – so what a round of games to see! The AKM promises a lot of goals! And it is such a shame one of the three teams will have to drop from the tournament while there is fex. group H where every team would be just plain overrun by any of the three. But well, that’s tournament games…
The Sea vs. Minas Tirith
The Sea would seem to face the easiest team to score against with this last round’s scoring-competition. Tirion won Minas Tirith 2-0 and that is the minimum they will have to reach – so the question becomes can the Númenorian strikers deliver when needed, or will Ulmo himself – or Uinen who scored in the previous game – rise up to the occasion to add in the attack?
The AKM doesn’t see a reason to bet for Minas Tirith. They are not only out-classed in quality by The Sea but there is also the question of incentive. Now someone might object to the latter by saying that honour can be even stronger motivator to great deeds, even if there is no hope of reaching your goal. And The AKM will accept the statement. But will add that Ulmo’s The Sea has as much of their honour at stake here (for losing to Minas Tirith would be so embarrasing) but they have the added motivator in their real chance of qualifying.
Were the opposing team any other than Minas Tirith (who hasn’t yet scored a single goal) we might entertain a possibility of them scoring one goal when The Sea is too busy attacking and possibly their defence vulnerable by that. But Minas Tirith will not be able to use that opportunity.
The AKM predicts: The Sea wins 2-0 (or 3-0).
Tirion vs. Nargothrond
A draw would be enough for Nargothrond and sure Finrod, Orodreth and Finduilas should have some feelings towards their father/grandfathers/grandgrandfathers and just plain not wish to win them if it would mean the relegation of their own elders while another team would qualify.
Now sure that will not be Nargothrond’s general policy and the team goes for a win like any honourable team – but it might prove a small factor in the subconsciousness of those of the line of Finwë.
That said, the teams look pretty close: Nargothrond looks somewhat better of the two on offence and Tirion in defence – and both are pretty much top-class teams in both. And the game smells of a draw.
The AKM predicts: draw 2-2.
Group G
Code:
Tol-In-Gaurhoth 6 4-0
Angband 3 2-2
Anfaughlith 3 1-2
Imladris 0 0-3
Imladris has theoretical chances of qualifying and in the same vein it is theoretically possible that the T-I-G team will not reach the semifinals. The AKM does not hold either of the scenarios in the least bit believable and sticks to “the game” being played between Angband and Anfaughlith for the second position behind the T-I-G team.
Looking the last game-pairs from that perspective reveals the fact that Angband is very well set to qualify while Anfaughlith’s chances are thin indeed: both Angband losing (or not winning) Imladris and Anfaughlith beating T-I-G would both be major surprises indeed. So T-I-G and Angband will qualify.
Angband vs. Imladris
Imladris’ fate was sealed already with the group-selection but the team has still been a bit of a teethless disappointment. They did score two against Misty Mts. and one against Arnor in the friendlies while drawing with both teams – but with the group games they have not scored a ingle goal and their goal-difference is 0-3. Varda is quality in defence and the young Elladan and Elrohir should be decent forwards but nothing seems to happen: the opponents score the goals needed and they themselves are left scoreless.
That trend looks like continuing against team angband who are keen on qualifying and will not wish to leave anything for second-quessing. The only problem the AKM sees for Angband is that unlike the wolves of T-I-G or the Balrogs of Anfaughlith, Varda might be an exceptionally terrifying defender to their attackers. Not that it would mean Imladris had a chance to win the game, but it might mean Angband is not going to win with ugly numbers.
The AKM predicts: Angband wins 1-0 (or 2-0 the most).
Anfaughlith vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth
Anfaughlith seems to be falling short of the goal once again even if their team is not that bad – it is actually pretty strong one but is just in too tough a company.
The only chance the AKM sees for them to draw or win this game is if T-I-G goes into one of their extravaganzes and decides to take the day off after securing the qualification or something along the lines. But if the T-I-G plays it in some serious fashion there’s no hope for Anfaughlith: their scoring sucks and their famous defence doesn’t seem to hold that well against Angband – so why would it suddenly against T-I-G who beat Angband 2-0?
Believing the T-I-G will play the game for real…
The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 2-0.
Group H
Code:
Anduin 6 4-1
Mordor 3 3-2
Arnor 3 2-3
Rohan 0 1-4
So Anduin has already qualified while Rohan’s chances are not far from being purely theoretical (they’d need to win Arnor with pretty definitive numbers). The surprise team Mordor with it’s 51 million budget stands now their backs against the wall, for carrying forwards from the group phase they’d need to beat Anduin who even if possibly already satisfied with their qualification would love to see a Mordor team sink and let Arnor to qualify instead.
In the optimal situation for Arnor even a draw with Rohan could be enough but they will not be letting things into second guessing if they can just win and do it – and in the case of a threeway-tie they are actually in the worst situation in what comes to the goal-differences, so they’ll sure do what they can – and it is a nice later-age men derby between the northern Dúnedain and Rohanians, so the aKM thinks both teams will give their best.
Arnor vs. Rohan
So Rohan will fall with honour. Why is it thay will fall? Well, first of all northern Dúnedain kings are stronger and have more stamina than Rohanians in general. Secondly the Rohan team have a couple of Mearas to help them (which is actually one of their greatest weapons in defence) and the King of the Dead. But on Arnor team there are not only the Witch-King (who can win games alone when in the mood or needed) but also Elendil organizing the defence.
Team Rohan’s blood was drawn too heavily after the glorious last season and this is now the result – they will stay in the group-phase even if their effort would have been valiant, at times (referring to the 0-2 defeat to Mordor).
The AKM predicts: Arnor wins 2-1 (or even 3-1).
Anduin vs. Mordor
Mordor will do its best to fight Anduin and to qualify but it will just not be enough against an opponent not only that much better than they but also – despite their qualification already – because of their willingness to throw Mordor out of the tournament just for the pleasure or righteousness of it.
After two games their stats on shooting and allowing the opponent to shoot look pretty much similar (and the opponents have been the same) – but Arnor is clearly the more efficient finisher and Amroth nicely “outkeeps” the Watcher. That said Mordor is decent team enough to not let Anduin just walk over them – and thus the ending numbers might be tighter some would like them to be ot would foresee them.
The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 2-1.