[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have to get my thoughts down, given that I seem to make a habit of dying on Night 2.

It would seem that my retainers have fled in fear and my mansion is left unguarded. So I have no option but to seek security amongst my fellow villagers, even if not all of you commoners are to my taste (particularly those amongst you harbouring secret fangs and Wolvish pangs). But, as I said, no autographs. I know that it must be a great privilege for you to find yourselves in my esteemed company. But, please, restrain yourselves.

First off, a note to Nilp:

I CUSS CANINE NOTE

Trust me? Well, I appreciate that it might be difficult for you, but you should (unless you are hiding a furry pelt, which is distinctly possible).

Some good thoughts coming out on the Changeling. It is clear that she has potential to be extremely powerful. After all, she will after a few Days have a great deal of knowledge. Quite possibly more than our Seer. And knowledge is power, right?

Each Night, the Changeling will learn the identity of another villager. And she has the advantage over the Seer in knowing her own identity, something the Seer will never know. And if she has the good fortune of actually picking the Seer one Night, she will learn the identity of two villagers that Night. So, although the Seer has an additional Night in which to dream (the Night just passed), the Changeling is likely over time to gain even more knowledge.

So how should the Changeling use that power? Lhuna has suggested that she might use it to benefit the Wolves. The Changeling would be foolish indeed were she to do such a thing. The only way she can win in this way is by assuming the identity of a Wolf in circumstances where, at the end of a Day, the innocents (including her) outnumber the Wolves by one. What are the chances of that happening? It is far more likely that she will die before she is able to get that far. And even if she survives that long, she will, unless she knows the identity of a Wolf who has not already been lynched, have to make an educated guess, and that could go awry.

If, on the other hand, the Changeling uses her power for good, she has a far greater chance of ending up on the winning side. This is because she will be able to use her own knowledge to augment that of the Seer. If both the Changeling and the Seer are able to survive for a few Days, their pooled knowledge will (as I think Nogrod suggested) be sufficient to give the village a great chance of victory. Furthermore, if the Changeling knows the identity of either the Ranger or a Wolf if and when her identity becomes apparent, she will be able to use that knowledge to preserve her life for one more Night at least.

So, Changeling, play for the village. You know it makes sense.

One question, though. Will we learn the identity of the Changeling after she is killed? I assume that we will, but it is important to be sure on this.

And now some thoughts on what has passed already today. First, the votes:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)

Hmm. Having fun with the retractable votes are we?

I tend to agree with Boromir that, as we have retractable votes, we should try to use them to our advantage. I intend to do so. There are a number of ways in which this can be done, but like Boro I will leave people to work this out for themselves. I agree, Mith, that they should not be used on a whim. But they can be used tactically, and that may involve changing votes a number of times. Yes, Wolves can use them too. But they can also be caught out using them.

Because of what he has said in this regard, I am inclined to trust Boro for now. I am also inclined to trust Nogrod because he has shared some good thoughts on the Changeling role and because he is coming across as genuine. Some good thoughts from him too on the “Animalia” theme, which are worth bearing in mind. As I said, a Nogrod that seems genuine most likely is genuine. Celuien, Lhuna and spawn too are looking more innocent than not in my eyes at the moment, for their contributions to the Changeling and retractable votes debates.

On the other hand, I am currently concerned about the following:

Fea
Form
Lommy
Nilp
Caran
Cailín

Fea because of her reaction to the “suspicions” that were voiced about her. It’s worth looking at exactly what she said:

Originally Posted by Fea

I feel so important that y'all are so keen on me just now. Sad, really... used to be that when somebody tried to kill me, I knew they were evil... or just trying to find out how my Great Glass Feavator works... or getting the recipe for Gobstoppers... you all know the drill, I'm sure, especially with the enthusiasm with which dentists seem to approach my customers.

Nowadays? No... nobody trusts poor Fea. And she's almost always pure as the ingredients she puts into sweets as sweet as she is. Sure, sometimes the sweet is a little nutty, but you know the old saying... Almond Joy's got nuts, Mounds don't. Must be Nilp and Spam don't like Almond Joys, but such is the sad lot of a confectionist working in a small town.

Er, it’s only me who has voted for you and that was a random vote (when initially cast, at least). Boro simply commented on your inclusion of him on your own random list and Nilp mentioned you in passing as part of his “kill the loudmouths” strategy (of which more in a moment). Yet apparently this amounts to everyone wanting to kill you and nobody trusting you. Yeah, right! Methinks ye doth protest too much, my lady. Yes, your reaction is peppered liberally with smilies and banter. But that only serves to emphasise its suspicious nature, in my view. You are indeed one to watch and, contrary to my initial intention, I may just now stick with my vote.

Form and Lommy I mistrust because of their continued railing against Day 1s as being useless. I happen to disagree. There is much that we can learn from Day 1. In my view, some reactions have already quite possibly been rather telling. And what is said today may become yet more useful in the Days to come. It serves the Wolves’ interests to keep Day 1s uneventful, to add little of use to the debate themselves and to remain non-committal. And what better way to do that than to rant on about little else other than how awful Day 1s are. Which is precisely what Form and Lommy have done. Indeed, Lommy went further and sought to muddy the waters of the Changeling and retractable votes debates.

I am concerned about Nilp for his lynch the “loudmouths” strategy, and not because it produced a vote for me. I am all for lynching loudmouths if they act suspiciously. But I do not agree with lynching them just because they are loudmouths. If only the quiet villagers remain at the end, then it makes the Wolves’ job so much easier. That said, this village seems rather short on quiet villagers, and Nilp’s strategy looks like a bold one for a Wolf to suggest, so I am less concerned about him than the others.

Finally, I am slightly wary of Caran and Cailín for jumping on the “early retractable votes bandwagon” which Boro and I started. Seeing how retractable votes were being used by others from the outset, a Wolf would be only to keen to jump in and place an early vote (which may be changed later, if necessary) with little or no reasoning. And that’s precisely what Caran and Cailín did. Caran cast her vote for Celuien, whom I had randomly voiced suspicion of, while Cailín went for Lhuna, generally known as a traditional early lynch target for Wolves. It’s not enough to warrant a vote yet, but I’ll be keeping my eye on them.

As for the remaining villagers, I currently have no view.