[JeffF.]

Rumil,

The search function is not active so I tried to find the thread by going through the pages but was unable to find it (I got up to page 30). If possible could you bring the post up by making a posting to it or perhaps re-post it? (or if you could give me an approximate page number?) Thanks.

Mouth of Sauron,

thanks for your reply, I thought long and hard about all my estimates and have raised my estimates for the Dwarves twice. Dain's Army at the Battle of Five Armies was 500 but it was thought more would come. The information from the LotR appendices added that Durin's Folk had suffered several set-backs. In addition to being driven from Moria, they had been driven from their subsequent homes in the North (in the Ered Mithrin Mountains) by dragons who captured their treasures, subsequently Smaug drove the Dwarves from the Kingdom Under The Mountain (Erebor) leaving only the Iron Hills settlement and a few small holdings in the Ered Luin Mountains. The Dwarves would have lost much strength in their battles prior to being driven from each of their homes and more were lost in the War of Orcs and Dwarves and the Battle of Five Armies. Balin had also taken "many" of the Dwarves of Erebor to reclaim Moria and these were all lost with him.

The Silmarillion stated that the Dwarves of Belegost and Nogrod had shifted most of their population to Khazud Dum (Moria) at the end of the FA, Peoples of Middle Earth states that these would have been Dwarves of the Firebeards and Broadbeams and greatly diminished from the battles of the FA and suffered proportional losses with Durin's Folk in their battles to save their subsequent homes. Presumably the small Dwarf holdings the in north and south of the Ered Luin mountains would mainly be from these Dwarf houses a they sought to salvage what they could from their ancient homes.

Unfinished Tales states that Sauron sent more than half his force against Minas Tirith (not including the forces still mobilizing) and I think my estimate of his force there is a fairly accurate one. The forces sent from Dol Guldor against Lorien (three forces the first of which was destroyed by Ents after being repulsed by the Lorien Elves - according to the timeline in RotK appendices) and those sent from Dol Guldor against Thranduil plus the forces against Erebor/Dale, the Corsairs and the army that blocked the road in the Druadan forest therefore should total slightly less than the 45000 or so that attacked Minas Tirith.

Both Dain and Brand had warnings of impending war (from Fellowship of the Ring - Elrond's council) and can be presumed to have gathered all their forces. Both armies were defeated in battle with the Easterlings and took shelter within Erebor to suffer siege but later emerged victorious after counterattacking. This implies that the Easterlings must have had a significant but not overwhelming advantage in numbers. My estimates for Brand's Kingdom of Dale and Dain's Kingdom Under the Mountain of around 2000 each vs. the Easterling's estimate of 6000 seems to fit this bill. the Dwarves and Men would have marvelous armor and weapons (despite Gimli's statement that they can no longer match their ancestors in making of arms - Fellowship of the Ring) his arms are described in Two Towers as being unmatched by any Rohirrim equipment) and would have been no easy foe for the Easterlings to overcome. 3 to 2 odds are significant in Medieval type battles, this force driven by Sauron's will could overcome the Dwarves and Men but probably at great cost. Once removed from Sauron's will the force became vulnerable to a great sortie by the Men and Dwarves. If the estimates of the Dwarves is made too large than they never would have been defeated by the Easterlings force (remembering that all these smaller Sauron forces must be less than that sent against Minas Tirith). Another factor to consider is that both the Army of Dale and the Dwarf Army sought refuge in the Kingdom Under The Mountain and presumably most or all of their women and children of the Kingdom of Dale so the total forces cannot be all that large.

Remember also that this Dwarf force is just for Durin's Folk (and would not include those from the small colonies in the Ered Luin) though undoubtedly many Firebeards and Broadbeams Houses of Dwarves must have been members of the Kingdom Under The Mountain given their co-habitation of Khazud Dum for thousands of years.

As you can see I try to incorporate every bit of information I can from the books to determine my estimates (it is much like trying to analyze Military Intelligence Reports and coming up with an estimate of enemy strength which I have much practice at!). Of course I am always willing to update my estimates based on subsequent information. are their statements in the books I have missed that makes you believe that Dain's army should be larger?


Tuor,

I have both her original and updated Atlases. I did my research prior to reading her books but our estimates for the most part are similary. The differences are from the different 'assumptions' we made in absence of information.

Regards,
Jeff