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Tolkien never said it was fair...
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Not always for the good guys, no. But Tolkien seems to be scrupulously fair when it comes to the bad guys. I cannot think of one principal bad guy in all of Tolkien's works who did not ultimately get his or her "come-uppance".
In this respect, Tolkien adheres to the proposition put forward here:
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the immoral life is a worse life than a morally virtuous life because ultimately the immoral life leads to a fundamental unhappiness: mental anguish, the loss of friends and loved ones, and emotional bankruptcy. All the power in the world cannot compensate for the psychological emptiness of an immoral life.
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Applying it to fiction, it works well. The reader (or viewer of a film) is satisfied when the baddie receives his or her just desserts. But it is, unfortunately, not applicable in real life. There are many examples of people who have acted immoraly (judged by reference to standard norms) and yet who reap the rewards of their immorality and suffer no (earthly) punishment. So, this proposition cannot form the basis of a sound philosophy.