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I think Tolkien here got a little muddled. I've always been bothered by Gandalf's assertion the he knew Bilbo's ring was "clearly" a Great Ring from the moment he got it- because Gandalf could have easily done the math (three hidden, seven and nine accounted for). It would have been better IMO if he had assumed it was a Lesser Ring- until Bilbo's unnatural eternal youth began to show.
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The entire plot of The Lord of the Rings could be said to turn on what Sauron didn’t know, and when he didn’t know it.
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