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Tolkien begun writing 'The Lord of the Rings' in 1937, and he worked on it for 12 years !!!! , until 1949.
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You're right that it did take him many years to write LotR, but he started the Silm 20 years before LotR. He worked on the 'unpublished' Silm until a couple of years before he died in 1973. The Silm was his life work, not LotR. Relating this information to
Leaf by Niggle, I think it's entirely possible for LotR, or maybe any of his 'stories', to be Tolkien's leaf.