The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

A Little Green · 05-15-2020, 06:51 AM

Trying to unpick Boro.

So first off – I only made one note yesterDay while reading the thread. This is what it says:

Boro Seer-hinting/slipping (note to self: if Boro still alive but not revealing toMorrow, have a closer look)

My immediate reaction to his non-reveal (I love that word btw) was that he’s innocent. I still think that’s the more likely scenario, but I also don’t think I can afford to trust anyone, especially someone like Boro who could totally pull a stunt like this whatever his role, and especially given my impressive track record of being wrong in this game so far. So. Starting point: I think whatever his role, Boro is probably telling the truth about pretending to be the Seer, doing some testing and realising the QT think so too. But beyond this –

Scenario 1 – Boro is innocent.

This does look exactly like something a Borordo would do. But as noted above, it’s pretty curious that he’s still alive. We’re getting to a point where the wolves really, really have no option but the gun for the Seer, so even if the wolves were inclined to think he was bluffing, it would be really bold of them not to eliminate him just to be safe. So if he isn’t a wolf himself, the only other feasible explanation (in my head at least) is that he was so blatantly wrong in his hints about someone that the wolves knew he wasn’t the Seer. So for example if Lommy is a wolf, they would know Boro wasn’t the real Seer. Likewise if Eonwe is innocent.

Scenario 2 – Boro is a wolf.

Possible, if with some reservations. The starting point – pretending to be the Seer, gaining the trust of the QT, and rolling with it – would definitely be a possibility even if Boro is a wolf. Lommy mentioned phantom-esque double bluff ploys, and I actually don’t have a problem imagining Boro pulling off something like that. That said, there are a few issues with this theory.

Most obviously, why would he come out now instead of pressing his advantage and continuing to manipulate the QT? My immediate thought would be that a Borolf would keep going with the charade as long as we let him, then come out with an actual reveal if he started being suspected and try to draw the real Seer out in the process.

Possibly he thought he’d come under fire about not being Night-killed, and wanted to avoid it getting that far – especially if this implicated a fellow. Coming out like this does make him look pretty innocent, and as long as we don’t lynch him, we won’t get anything definite about the fellow he was trying to protect, either. Additionally, following up on Lottie’s point about how Eonwe challenging Boro toDay looks like an attempt to distract from himself – if they are fellows, this would be a masterstroke. All we’re doing is talking about Boro, and most people seem inclined to believe him – and his innocence would also make Eonwe appear innocent. Meanwhile, they are sufficiently suspicious of each other so this doesn’t look too buddy-buddy.

--

I still think scenario 1 is more likely, but I managed to make scenario 2 sound like such an awesome stroke of evil genius that I’ll be almost disappointed if it’s not true

Regardless, I’d be tempted to draw a simplistic conclusion that Boro and Eonwe are on the same side. That is, either they’re both innocent or both guilty. I’m leaning towards both innocent at the moment, but reserve the right to change my mind.

05-15-2020, 06:51 AM	#1311
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	Trying to unpick Boro. So first off – I only made one note yesterDay while reading the thread. This is what it says: Boro Seer-hinting/slipping (note to self: if Boro still alive but not revealing toMorrow, have a closer look) My immediate reaction to his non-reveal (I love that word btw) was that he’s innocent. I still think that’s the more likely scenario, but I also don’t think I can afford to trust anyone, especially someone like Boro who could totally pull a stunt like this whatever his role, and especially given my impressive track record of being wrong in this game so far. So. Starting point: I think whatever his role, Boro is probably telling the truth about pretending to be the Seer, doing some testing and realising the QT think so too. But beyond this – Scenario 1 – Boro is innocent. This does look exactly like something a Borordo would do. But as noted above, it’s pretty curious that he’s still alive. We’re getting to a point where the wolves really, really have no option but the gun for the Seer, so even if the wolves were inclined to think he was bluffing, it would be really bold of them not to eliminate him just to be safe. So if he isn’t a wolf himself, the only other feasible explanation (in my head at least) is that he was so blatantly wrong in his hints about someone that the wolves knew he wasn’t the Seer. So for example if Lommy is a wolf, they would know Boro wasn’t the real Seer. Likewise if Eonwe is innocent. Scenario 2 – Boro is a wolf. Possible, if with some reservations. The starting point – pretending to be the Seer, gaining the trust of the QT, and rolling with it – would definitely be a possibility even if Boro is a wolf. Lommy mentioned phantom-esque double bluff ploys, and I actually don’t have a problem imagining Boro pulling off something like that. That said, there are a few issues with this theory. Most obviously, why would he come out now instead of pressing his advantage and continuing to manipulate the QT? My immediate thought would be that a Borolf would keep going with the charade as long as we let him, then come out with an actual reveal if he started being suspected and try to draw the real Seer out in the process. Possibly he thought he’d come under fire about not being Night-killed, and wanted to avoid it getting that far – especially if this implicated a fellow. Coming out like this does make him look pretty innocent, and as long as we don’t lynch him, we won’t get anything definite about the fellow he was trying to protect, either. Additionally, following up on Lottie’s point about how Eonwe challenging Boro toDay looks like an attempt to distract from himself – if they are fellows, this would be a masterstroke. All we’re doing is talking about Boro, and most people seem inclined to believe him – and his innocence would also make Eonwe appear innocent. Meanwhile, they are sufficiently suspicious of each other so this doesn’t look too buddy-buddy. -- I still think scenario 1 is more likely, but I managed to make scenario 2 sound like such an awesome stroke of evil genius that I’ll be almost disappointed if it’s not true Regardless, I’d be tempted to draw a simplistic conclusion that Boro and Eonwe are on the same side. That is, either they’re both innocent or both guilty. I’m leaning towards both innocent at the moment, but reserve the right to change my mind. __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."