Okay first - my participation will be limited toDay as I'm out of the city for the weekend with friends (including
Agan who keeps having helpless bursts of laughter while reading the dead thread. Very reassuring.) Anyway I do have internet here but I'm not expected to sit all day with my laptop playing werewolf...
Second - it seems I was wrong about the aforementioned deceased giggler. I'm honestly quite baffled because I still think her actions were pretty incriminating, but unless one of the wolves of each pack is blessed with the hunter's gifts without that being said in the rules, I have obviously been mistaken. I guess I'm starting to understand what
Agan meant when she once jokingly said she always plays like a wolf even if she's an innocent...
As for
Greenie - well we can hope she was a wolf, but we can't really assume that. More on
Greenie later.
Third - last Night: what on earth?? I'm still leaning towards the interpretation that
Agan was the hunter (because otherwise the mysterious special role would be very similar to that of the hunter) and the special role bloodied their hands last Night. I agree that the special person killing
Mac seems the most likely, but I'll still sacrifice a thought or two to that.
If I have the time, I'd so skim through all the Night killed people's posts.
People talking about the dead thread scrying people - before we start thinking if we can give them any instructions, we should check what the rules say: (there seemed to be some confusion, also in my own head)
Quote:
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Since in the Afterlife (or in the anteroom of the Afterlife) it is hard to hide one's true nature from one's fellow residents, every NIGHT after there are three residents the dead get to vote for one among themselves to determine their true nature. Their specific role will not be revealed but rather the voted player will be described as either PREDATOR or PREY.
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"Every night after". So as
the phantom and
the rune only died on Night2, we should assume the dead thread didn't get to check anyone's role on Night2. And last Night, their options would have been
Nogrod,
the phantom,
Rune,
Agan and
Greenie.
Now, we said they should check a lynch. I think that on principle, they would agree. This would make
Nogrod the logical option as we can assume
Agan was the hunter (or the special role). But then again, it's been a while since
Nogrod's death and they might feel knowing
Greenie's role is more useful. (Remember
Agan and
Greenie would have been part of decision board last Night.)
Okay so let me do a little maths before I embarrass myself:
We send
Sally the volunteered lover (hi there!) to the dead thread by lynching her toDay (Day3).
If her partner manages to hide,
Sally will return on Day5, knowing the roles of the people the dead scried on Night3 and Night4, right?
Now I'd love to actually NOT lynch
Sally but a potential wolf instead, and leave the wolf packs wondering if they should off
Sally or the other wolf pack will, and hopefully both going for
Sally.
The downside of this strategy is that I'm not sure if the wolves wouldn't rather try to avoid killing
Sally or her partner at all and hope the lovers with their special information will never come to be of (special) use to the village at all. They can afford the village to have one known innocent, I would think, it's more the question of whether they'd rather kill
Sally and then try to kill her lover before she comes back, or whether they'd rather try to avoid night-killing or lynching either for as long as the game lasts, or actually, as long as there's still likely to be two more games.
Wow this gives me headache.
Okay a little more maths on top of this:
We're now 15 living people. In the worst ever case scenario, there's 9 innocents against 3 wolves against 3 wolves. Now let's assume the seer's dreams don't help us to lynch a wolf, the special role doesn't kill anybody anymore and the ranger doesn't make a save, and the wolves don't hit the same target or each other. (this is hopefully all very pessimistic)
We lynch lover-
Sally on Day 3. It's 8-3-3.
An ordo and Sally's lover are killed on Night 4. It's 6-3-3.
We lynch an innocent on Day 4. It's 5-3-3.
Two innocents are killed on Night 5. It's 3-3-3.
Sally doesn't return from the dead to lift the ratio to 4-3-3. The village loses on Day5 with a tied wolf victory.
Now replace lynching
Sally with lynching any other innocent toDay (and remove all talk of the lovers), and the worst case scenario is the same (tied wolf victory on Day5), the only difference is that we have two shots at lynching the wolf (toDay and toMorrow) instead of one (if we intentionally lynch
Sally toDay).
I don't think it will come down to this. I think it's feasible to assume that at least 1-2 wolves are already dead, maybe more. Also the gifteds might be able to help us.
All I'm saying is, I'm not for lynching
Sally without thinking it over a little more still. I guess it comes down to if taking a risk for the information about 2 scried dead people plus whatever other info the dead might have (seer dreams???) is worth "losing" a Day.
Now emphasis on the word "risk". Combined, the wolf packs have four shots at getting
Sally's lover while she's in the underworld.
I guess my conclusion is:
The information is worth lynching a known innocent toDay. (I think this might be the first time ever I'm advocating not trying to lynch a wolf. Strange things happen.)
However I'm not sure we're likely to win this bet, which would make me tempted to push the choice over to the wolves and make them use their Night-kills for that instead of killing possible gifteds.
And geez, now I'm flip-flopping even more. My inner pessimist is asking if it really helps us to know the roles of two dead people (if the dead indeed have no other information) because a) they might both be innocent and b) even analyzing dead wolves' posts has never been a foolproof way to find their packmates.
Okay, now I'm flip-flopping out. I'll be back later - there's a ton of small things said by people earlier toDay and late yesterDay that I'd love to comment on.
But I really think we need think it over before lynching
Sally. I'm inconclusive myself. The idea of the wolves having four shots in total at finding her lover sounds pretty bleak to me. Then again, I *do* want to know what the dead know, and it would be weird not to try to use the lovers to our advantage. (If the advantage in this warped case isn't using them as a wolf bait.)
/ confused Lommy out, please discuss