Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin
I was just curious, because I literally had the exact same view that Nog had regarding whether or not to tie the vote -
- and you never mentioned it.
|
It's not a case of anyone arguing for a no-lynch is innocent, and anyone arguing to lynch is suspicious. It was the way he argued it:
Quote:
I do not like the "let's not lynch anyone toDay" -meme (backed by the idea that we might lynch our Seer who is very important in this game) as the chances of lynching our seer are minuscule compared to any normal game and there are such loads of wolves around - and if we were to lynch the seer s/he could act on it before things get nasty thus at least securing another two dreams the next Night when the Ranger covered it for her/him...
There 24 players of which 1 is the Seer. The chances of hitting the Seer on D1 lynching = 1/24.
THere are 3+3 wolves in this game. The chances of getting a wolf on D1 lynching = 6/24 = 1/4. And add to that the practical stats we've just seen (a village is slightly better than random in picking up the villains), so yeah. Let's try and hunt a wolf toDay.
~Nog #96
|
I read it as
Nog arguing to even consider the possibility of lynching the Seer day 1 with a 1/24 chance is wrong. I had stated before that I wanted to vote in a manner that would ensure we don't accidentally lynch the Seer, because to go into Day 2 with 4 dreams, instead of 2, can be a major advantage. An advantage and arguably most powerful Seer any village has had.
You stated it as a difference of opinion, which I generally accepted sounding like a reasonable difference of opinion. Give me some credit for being open-minded. There's more variables into my suspects than agreeing with me about whether to lynch or not.
We wouldn't have lost one of our lynch chances, we have the same number of chances depending on the size of the village, the only way you can gain more chances is Ranger save, or the packs target the same person. We would just be delaying one chance by a day, and I was swayed more by
Form's argument to let the wolves make the first move, instead of taking a blind shot.