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I wrote this prior to the Day starting, but I don't think the results of the Night change anything, so I'm just leaving it and going to bed...
Okay, I’m going to try and make some sense out of a lot of half-formed thoughts and erratic notes taken by hand while perusing the Day 1 conversation on my phone.
I spent a fair amount of time thinking about the proposal to tie the vote yesterDay – who was for it, who was against it, the reasons they gave – and why either a wolf or an innocent would be interested in tying or not tying the vote. So:
Why an innocent wouldn’t want to tie: 1) Get the dead thread up and going more quickly, since it’s likely to be dominated by innocents and is a key source of knowledge in the game; 2) No chance of killing a wolf and advancing the game.
Why an innocent would want to tie: 1) Zero risk of accidentally lynching a gifted; 2) Keep the population of the village up longer; 3) Gain more information from Night 2’s activities so that lynching can be a (slightly) more educated decision.
Why a wolf would not want to tie: 1) Extremely high odds of lynching an innocent (ordo or gifted), or a wolf from another pack – since they know exactly who they want alive and dead and can steer the vote.
Why a wolf would want to tie: 1) Hide in a systemic vote – no voting patterns to trace. (This seems a lot less compelling to me than the not wanting to tie – if I was a wolf, I’d rather just have more people die. I think.)
So, that being said, the people that stand out to me as most suspicious:
loslote: Starts rather ambiguous about the idea of a tie (post #22), then becomes adamant that it is a bad idea (#48, #54, #202). Also, concern about trusting the dead thread could be construed as suspicious (since it’s likely to be a majority of innocents with some knowledge, wolves wouldn’t want to leave anything up to them) (post #28, #54).
Macalaure: Also anti-tie, which is not instantly condemning. He spends a lot of time on statistics, which could be an innocent actually being helpful or a wolf trying to look helpful without actually contributing to the discussion of who’s who – no pointing fingers, but still substantial posting (though he does make a list of his suspicions (#131)). Seems easily swayed (#168, #188) – bandwagoning? Or just confused innocent. Then at the end he seems almost gleeful about Nogrod’s death, which sat poorly with me. [Overall, I’m not convincing myself here, but earlier when I was taking notes I was getting bad vibes from his posts… so really just not sure.]
McCaber: Mostly this quote: “Any lynch is still better than no lynch in my book, so out of those who I dislike Agan has the most realistic odds of not leaving a tie.” Sorry, but no. Maybe I’m misunderstanding his meaning, but this struck me really badly.
Meh. All of this seemed a lot more substantive in my head earlier. My intuition for wolves is also notoriously bad, but hopefully this is at least a little interesting or helpful.
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Addendum: I definitely think the vote yesterDay bears looking into - seems very bandwagon-y to me (both Nogrod's sudden downfall and the pile-up on Agan), but I haven't had time to look into it myself.
Also, wouldn't it be funny if all three of the people in the Dead Thread were wolves? Wishful thinking, I guess...
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