[Nogrod]

Form – if you wait for chances to get over 50-50 with lynching you’d need to give up lynching altogether: unless a seer reveals with some solid background knowledge on her/his status, every lynch is less than that.

I think I can see where you come from though (D1 chances are lowish), but trying to lynch people gives one the data one needs to make any inferences. So even if the chances aren’t near 50-50 (rather like 1/3 to 1/4 in practise) on Day1, just saying "let’s skip this Day" will give the wolves a free ride to do their mayhem and us others more or less clueless.

Many Day1 lynches have been unfortunate for the villagers, but more often than not very useful when backtracking on who voted who and why - and even if we can't enjoy the results of those ponderings here in the Living Thread immediately or as such to begin with, the Dead can use them. Let's not focus solely on us living on this Day1 but also in the wider scale - the Dead can use a lot of info if we give it to them. If we do not vote or make excuses to make ties there is little to tell in comparison with a situation where someone is actually facing leaving this thread - a chance nastier for the wolves than for the ordos.

Yes this game is a different beast as Agan reminded, but it is a different one also because the lynched and other dead will keep on playing - and in the end the game will be more or less decided - and is more interesting to play - in the Dead Thread (if it goes far enough). So I might just wish to stick into some gaming principles: do what you can to win and encourage others to play - that's the only way peolpe leave marks to be analysed - for the living or for the dead.