[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

On the contrary, insisting that the lions always must be killing based on seer suspicions looks to me like driving home a false trail.

If no one looks like a seer (and why should a seer who's had one dream, probably an innocent, look like one? A good one would lie low), they aren't going to just kill someone who happened to suspect one of them. If someone looks like another gifted that's a good kill choice too, and hunters usually only become a threat late in the game, when they have some clue what's going on.

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?

Well then we will have to agree to disagree, because I can't see why the wolves wouldn't go for the seer unless there's a special reason not to. It doesn't make the game any easier though, because going for a potential seer might simply mean going for someone who has a gifted vibe (as might be in this case, I agree G55 seemed a little too involved yesterDay - that's why I thought she was a wolf) or who defends an innocent in a seerish way.

Of course, this game is a little different, as the lions have a reason to go for possible bears as well. I guess it depends on the wolves whether they consider the seer or the bear a bigger threat for themselves. Which, now that I think of it, leads me to think the wolves might try to kill either people who might be seers that dreamed of them (ie seers that are immediately dangerous for them) or bears. It's entirely possible G55 was killed for looking like a bear instead of a seer, or that she was killed because Volo or Mac is a wolf. But I'll take some of my words back - it wouldn't make much sense for the wolves to go for a possible seer that just said someone innocent looks innocent.

Originally Posted by Nerwen's skip recap

#75. Rikae says wondering is in fact all the real Targaryen would be able to do in the case of a false-reveal, and goes on to add:
Quote:

It is from this point that the suspicion starts to build around skip.

This caught my eye. I know Rikae is a crafty player, could it be that wolf!Rikae decided to do a little experiment and blow a little suspicion in the direction of innocent Skip who had been acting a bit erratically (yet characteristically) and see if it catches fire? Also I don't know what to make of her and Inzil arguing which one of them was the first one to voice suspicion against an innocent that was eventually lynched - wouldn't wolves rather hope people forget their involvement in something like that?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121).

I never said people who were voting Skip were particularly suspicious. What I said was that a bandwagon of the sort that got him lynched is usually against an innocent. There's a difference there. Sudden Day1 bandwagons against people with a controversial playing style are a frequent phenomenon and in my experience both innocents and wolves take part in them. Wolves might smell an easy lynch and jump in, or knowing the person is innocent, stay back in order to look better. To be honest, I doubt we're going to glean much information from the lynch, because there might as well been wolves involved as not.

The relevant question is mostly who were the other lynch candidates and could a wolf have been voting Skip in order to save their fellow, which (based on my memory) is unlikely because wasn't Skip on the lead the whole time?