A lot of attention has been paid to skip's bandwagon, so I'm not really going to add much, since nothing I could say will be new.
Rather, I'm interested in the Mac voters. We know now that skip is innocent, so it's not like the votes against Mac piled up to save him, so why did he get his own bandwagon? According to the timeline (as provided by the lynch candidate himself) Mac didn't receive a vote until after skip already had five.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
1. Skip -> Gil
2. Lottie -> Skip (because she didn't like his vote, fair enough)
3. Sally -> Lottie (because reasons)
4. Boro -> Inzil (why?)
5. Kitanna -> Skip-2 (suspiciously placed, moving skip ahead of a four tie, but her reasoning feels innocent)
6. Wilwa -> Skip-3 (if Wilwa was still alive, this vote would look horrible)
7. Inzil -> Skip-4 (badly placed and badly reasoned. Inzil had a vote as well, so maybe part of him choosing the bandwaggon was self-preservation)
8. Gala -> Mac (boo)
9. Rikae -> Wilwa (a vote for the known seer is yucky, but I don't think she could have had any such suspicion; her reasons are solid)
10. Encai -> Nogrod (not sure about this one)
11. Eonwe -> Skip-5 (comes out of nowhere and adds vote #5. If he was a baddie, he could have found a less obvious place for his vote...)
12. Wyth22 -> Mac-2 (... like this)
13. Mac -> Inzil-2 (... or this )
14. Gil -> Boro (still spreading the vote at this late point, but then, Gil is Gil)
15. Lommy -> Wilwa-2 (spent the last hour vote-counting, reasoning is so-so)
16. Green -> Mac-3 (not happy about this one, but I can see where she's coming from)
17. Nogrod -> Mac-4 (this one I like less, as he's mostly using the point Greenie made; and riding a counter-bandwaggon is always better than riding the original one or throwing the vote away; if Inzil is a lion, Nog's vote looks not so good (Greenie's, too))
18. Volo -> Gala (throws vote away)
19. Eomer -> Inzil-3 (at this late point, he's effectively throwing his vote away, too, though less obviously)
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Galadriel voted first, but we all know she's innocent.
Then
Wyth, who today has seemed extra defensive. I'm guessing because
Quote:
Either way, I'm not so sure. This might make my strategy a bit weak, but I'm still figuring things out around here.
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^this was in his vote post from D1.
Then
Greenie, who hadn't really said anything of note that I remember.
And finally
Nog,
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
So Mac is one of the lovers and tries to play suspicious enough for the lions not to kill him during the Night?
That might also explain the odd "on your side" as he's basically on no-one's side (were he a lion he would have been more aware of the "opposite sides" and realized his wording's problematicness)
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Which, correct me if I'm wrong, I read as Nog viewing Mac more as a lover, than a lion.
I'd say that there was a lion in skip's wagon for sure, but I feel there was probably one in Mac's too.
That said
Zil - Based on vote placement for Skip and his general agreeable attitude thus far I'd say he's the likely lion in that wagon. He also gained three votes of his own and at his vote placement he had one vote and his vote gave skip 4, thus pushing skip far into the lead.
Wyth & Greenie - I haven't seen a lot from them to make a really informed decision, but based on placement I'd say lion. I'm in the dark about Greenie, but Wyth has said a few things that I noted as odd. He seemed overly defensive earlier today, but hasn't been around much since to continue to watch. Also he was skip leaning yesterday, but switched to Mac. Which is odd to me.
I'm leaning toward an innocent Nog based on his vote.
Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.
Mac - The more I see from others the less likely I find it that Mac is a lion. But his responses about the lover discussion are odd.
Gil - His vote was very, very safe. His comments haven't been unreasonable and though he's garnered some suspicion, he's stayed pretty well under the radar.
I'm going to vote in an hour or so, so I can get some RL work done. I'm not sure who I'll vote for, but my top three picks are
Zil, Wyth, or Enca for the moment.