[Nerwen]

Death of an Imp

#33. skip believes we should focus on Lion-hunting rather then Bear-hunting.

#34. skip suggests the Targaryen reveal: "Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?”

#35. Lommy says “that’s up to the hunter, I guess”.

#36. Volo says, "I have a cunning plan! How about we all reveal as a Targaryen!”

#38. Mac explains in some detail what is wrong with skip’s plan, which he describes as “crazy". It is in the course of this that Mac makes his own, now infamous “reveal”. (In context, this is to make a point about fake reveals.)

#44. skip disputes Mac's judgement of his plan, arguing that he can’t see why anyone would counter-reveal, that the Targaryen would be protected for a Night, thus losing the Lions a kill, and that, essentially, we’re better off *without* a non-logical Hunter. (This last seems to be the basic assumption from which he’s working.)

#46. WythDryden is suspicious of skip's initial post, then edits this to say he has changed his mind because of "posts agreeing with the strategy”.
*Shrugs* Newbie. Who knows?

#47. Kit points out that the Bear would still get a Night-kill, that the Targaryen would have no special knowledge and that a known innocent is not all that helpful in a large village.

#51. Zil says a revealed hunter is useful only later in the game. "If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever."

#56. Rikae says that in fact (counter to skip's assertion, “pretty much anyone" might potentially reveal as the Targaryen.

#66. skip (vote-post). skip doesn’t see why anyone would fake-reveal, as "the real Targaryan would start to wonder”. Replying to Zil, argues:

Originally Posted by skip

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

But enough of that, we have to trust the Targaryan's own judgement on this.

Then votes Gil-galad (first vote of the Day)

Originally Posted by skip

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

#70.

Originally Posted by Mac

Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.

Given how vehemently Mac had argued against the plan, this seems like he’s semi-caving in very suddenly, and with little cause. Odd.

#72. Gil comments that he had had a feeling he would be voted, and describes himself as a “safe lynch”.

#75. Rikae says wondering is in fact all the real Targaryen would be able to do in the case of a false-reveal, and goes on to add:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

It is from this point that the suspicion starts to build around skip.

#76. Wilwa reminisces about the time an *ordo* outed her as the hunter by false revealing, says reveals can’t always be trusted and that an early Targaryen reveal “wouldn’t be that beneficial”.

#81. skip says this ordo was in fact himself.

#82. Lottie makes a suspicion list, in which she says of skip:

I don't like his vote. Like Rikae said, it's a easy vote, and looks more like a wolf trying for an easy Day 1 lynch than an innocent with a genuine suspicion.

#82. Lottie votes skip.

Tally: Gil-galad 1, skip 1.

#84. Sally votes Lottie.

#87. Boro describes skip's vote as "an early random vote that looks innocent”. Goes on to vote Zil.

#88. Kitanna further disputes skip's plan (replying to skip at #66).

Originally Posted by Kit

This is assuming the known ordo/Targaryan can survive through the off night. I agree with Zil. Right now there is no reason for the hunter to reveal. I'm not sure why skip thinks having the hunter step forward is good. We have a known innocent who knows as much as every ordo in this game which at this point is nothing.

#91. Wilwa makes a suspicion list:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

#95. Zil (replying to skip at #66).

Originally Posted by Zil

Than again, I think the ranger ought to be more concerned with protecting possible Seers, rather than the Hunter!
And I still say a revealed Hunter would be more damaging to the Lions later.

#96. Mac makes a list, saying he has “no clue either way” about skip "said plenty, but I don't know what to do with him”.

#99. Kit votes skip.

Originally Posted by Kit

Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip2, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#105. Lommy makes a list, describing skip as "notable: easy vote (I feel like Gil and Skip himself are easy Day1 lynch targets because they think fast and sometimes a bit kneejerkily and are active enough to draw attention)."

#107. G55 makes a list: "skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate."

#110. Wilwa votes skip. "Because his ideas about the hunter were odd and I don't think they were really in our best interest. Not a lot to go on, I know, but my best hunch right now.”

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip3, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#110. Zil votes skip, as he "can't see anyone else who pings the radar as much”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip4, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#116.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Iiiinteresting!

What the ??? at this bandwagon?!

Also anyone else notice that the second and the third voter (Lottie and Sally) voted the one that had voted before them. Weird.

This is where the backlash against the skipwaggon starts.

#117. G55 says, "I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.” Votes Mac.

#118. Nog reacts to G55’s post at #107.

Originally Posted by Nog

Are you truly saying that "it's much easier to jump on him so I'd consider doing it"?

On a related issue - I do not think a Skip-lion would have proposed openly for the Targaryen to reveal... a lion should not be controversial but rather quire careful on the early stages when the lynches can be pretty random (D1 especially).

#121.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Skip is fishy, but he is always fishy (sorry! ). Why he might be a wolf: his vote was an easy one, and combined with the fishyness, it's not a very trustworthy combination. Why he might be innocent: sudden bandwagons against someone are usually against an innocent, my experience tells me. Wolves hardly go down without an objection. Then again, not sure if that rule applies in this big a village.

Of the others that have been voted this far, I'm not very suspicious of Inzil, Gil or Mac, and Lottie isn't on the top of my list either.

Currently thinking about voting Galadriel or Wilwa. Could also go for any of the under the radar club, or even Lottie or Skip if the other options are bad.

(This post x’d with #118.)

#122.G55 answers Nog at #188.

Originally Posted by G55

No, as in I can see where thes suspicion is coming from, and I agree with a good deal of it, but I'm also wary that a lot of it seems to have been spoonfed somehow. As in, I think the points against skip are quite true, but they came seemingly out of nowhere, making you think like you've felt this way all the time. Except that I'm aware that I did not come up with all that on my own and I'm being spoonfed suspicion.

#123. Rikae comments on G55’s vote-post: "Offhandedly cast suspicion at Skip voters, then make an unexplained vote for someone else?"

#124.

Originally Posted by Greenie

As others have pointed out, this was a very easy vote, and the reasoning looks a little far-fetched. But it's also Day 1, and I seem to recall an innocent Skip being lynched for stuff like this before, so I'd prefer to go for someone else.

#126. (replying to Rikae at #123), G55 says "I think I've defended skip more than cast suspicion on him, and b) the vote is hardly unexplained.”

#128. Replying to G55, Rikae says she meant she was casting suspicion on skip-voters, but now says they’re worrying her too:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I expressed my initial suspicion partly to test the waters, though I was considering voting him, it makes me uneasy when people agree with me too quickly. I mean, no one was making any accusations, and then all of a sudden several people jump on the first thing resembling a case, without any further analysis? Fishy.

Votes Wilwa.

#129. Greeniethinks G55 is “a little off” for apparently trying to cast suspicion on both skip and his voters.
(this post x’d with #127.)

#131. Mac says, "While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all."

#132.Enca votes Nogrod.

#133. Eönwë votes skip, saying, "At the moment, the thing that stands out most to me is Skip's encouragement of a Targ reveal”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 1, Mac 1, Wilwa 1, Nog1

#134. Volo says, "I agree that at first smelling there's a nasty odor to the skip votes.”

#135. Wyth says:

Originally Posted by Wyth

I was initially going to vote on Skip just because he seemed to stand out. But again, my ideas about it were swayed with how bringing this much attention to himself would not be good strategy. Or would double psychology here be a good defense? Either way, I'm not so sure.

Votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 1, Mac 2, Wilwa 1, Nog1

#136.

Originally Posted by Eomer

We got a bandwagon, baybay!

But given how many WW games there have been (this must be the 8 millionth or something, right) I have to think that the villains won't have voted for Skip like that. It just looks too bad. They would be smarter than that... I think.

#138. Mac votes Zil.

#139. Nog believes there is at least one lion in the Skip-waggon.

#140.

Originally Posted by Gil

I feel that Skips poor choice of words when accusing me did lead to the bandwagon against him. I know the feeling, I have done it countless times.

Votes Boro.

#147. Lommy votes Wilwa.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 2, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#151. Eomer is "leaning toward lynching Wilwa rather than Skip”, thinking the latter is "more of a wrong-place-wrong-time kind of villager/guest”. Is “very curious about the bandwagon.

#154. Greenie "would prefer Wilwa over Skip, but Mac over Wilwa.”

#159. Greenie votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 3, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#161. Nogrod votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 4, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#162. Eomer says, “the Mac-voters, G55 and Wyth, are also very curious…”

#163. Volo votes G55.

#166. Eomer votes Zil, saying he is "smart enough to deflect any complaints about bandwagon-jumping”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 3, Mac 4, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1


Thoughts. Well! I agree with Eomer both bandwagons are quite curious. One conclusion we can draw is that the Skip-waggon was not a simple attempt to save a baddie, as only two other players (Zil and Mac) were in any danger, and their bandwaggons (if you can call the Zil-votes that) arose after the Skip-waggon. Undoubtedly, skip did plenty to make himself suspicious, yet the general pattern of “everyone jumps on skip", followed by “everyone denounces everyone jumping on skip” is very odd. I mean, yes, that is how it works with bandwagons, yet I’ve never seen such a sudden switching on and off of mass-suspicion.

Most noteworthy:

Rikae was the first to express actual suspicion on skip, then later got cold feet, suspected people for suspecting him and voted someone else. (Bear in mind that known innocent G55 did much the same thing.)

Zil and Kit kept on arguing against skip'splan after there seemed to me much point to doing so– it was clear by then that it wasn’t going to gain any support. (Mind you skip just wouldn’t back down– people can develop tunnel-vision in such cases.) Zil's vote (or the reasons for it) also strikes me as a little too easy.

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why? A baddie suddenly seeing a chance to dispose of the hunter?

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121).


EDIT:X’d since my last post. Really. This took ages and for some reason I can’t refresh. So I have no idea what’s happened in the meantime yet. Just letting you all know.
Edit 2: clarification.