[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

Well, doesn't the Hunter already use his ability by surviving an extra Day, and can kinda do whatever they want since they're as good as dead by the next Nightfall? They've spent their power already, so they have nothing left to lose by revealing.

Originally Posted by Volo

Lommy's math is ominous. I would rest easier if someone proved her wrong.

What in Westeros is that supposed to mean?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But at that point (surviving the Night-kill) the hunter would have no power to lose, so no reason *not* to reveal; at least that's how I read it.

Yes, that's what I meant. Especially since the wolves/bear always know who the Hunter is, and the village doesn't always (only if he's lynched). The wolves and lovers know who they target and Night, we don't. That means that if the Hunter stays quiet, they have a Day to mop up their tracks and we are still walking in ignorance. If we don't know who they wanted to kill, we lack that much info on who to lynch that Day. The wolves/bear have one on us.

However, and this is something I have not considered when I started writing this post, the non-kill could just be a Ranger save from their perspective. They won't know either if said person is a Hunter or an unknown someone. Heck, the Ranger could be protecting a Lion from a Bear! I need to digest this thought, I can't think of all the consequences of this right away.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The narration will let you know if there's a ranger save or, indeed, if someone refuses to die.

Aw. That kinda kills it. Never mind the last cool thought.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

Or at any rate it could draw out a desperate wolf. Either way, I can't see any negative consequence to this, but I can see several positive ones.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

The Lovers won't be making any specific allegiances until later in the game when it's clear which side is doing better. If we manage to get a wolf early on then they'll probably side more with us, but if we go days without being successful they probably won't. If we want them on our side we have to do well, basically.

I agree more or less with this statement, but it bothers me slightly that you are so sure about it.

Originally Posted by WythDryden

*Puts his suspicious eyes on* Getting nervous eh?

Edit: Well since reading page 2 and the posts agreeing with the strategy, maybe you are innocent after all. I'll still be keeping my eye out though. I have yet to fully trust any of you. Wilwarin's posts almost seem too helpful to be genuine after all.

Hey, it only takes a village to follow a clever wolf's lead into stupidity. It doesn't hurt to think differently. The fact that people agree doesn't make a thing less stupid. So if you think it's stupid, say that it's stupid, because maybe it just is.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

But then the lovers risk an easy lose. If they're in the open and we lynch one to get rid of the second Night-kill and an extra wolf vote, or just lynch them for whatever reason, they don't win. They have to be sure that IF they come out, they will not be killed OR lynched.

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!