[Nogrod]

There are only really good teams left so no game will be inevitable or easy to any one team. There are no clear winners or even favourites at this point – only some different grades of differences which will play out this or that way. And with the debatable exception of a few teams it is easy to see we have the top four teams of the tournament left at this point.

Many say that with different groupings etc. we could have had Real Valinor, or Nargothrond, or Angband, or Armenelos, or… in this final four. But the AKM actually thinks that only Real Valinor would have seriously challenged the four top teams in a simple series of games where everyone played each other.

So more or less, we have the best left.


AC Beleriand vs. FC Valinor

It is a game of two quite equal keepers. Marach of AC Beleriand with 84,2% (3/19) and Huan of FC Valinor with 84,6% (2/13). But looking at the number of shots saved the AKM thinks Marach is actually the hotter goalie at the moment – but it is very close anyway.

It is a game of two tough defences. AC Beleriand defences have allowed more shots against them (19/54 vs. FC’s 13/44) but they have also been more dangerous in the attack. That said, the AKM thinks the FC Valinor defence is slightly better in what it is there to do in the first place aka. Defending – so a slight edge there for FC Valinor.

It is a game of two midfields where the balance is as even as it can be. With the defencive midfielders AC Beleriand has the edge and with the offencive ones FC Valinor has it. But in sum, the AKM thinks that the dangerousness of Argon and Yavanna over Angrod and Aegnor is more relevant to the final score than the slightly better numbers of Denethor and Ulrad over Elemmirë and Findis in the more defencive end. So the midfield goes ever so slightly to FC Valinor.

But it is is also – and most formidably – a game of two attacks both trying to outshine and -perform each other. And even if the brothers Celegorm and Curufin are known through the footballing Arda as the wonderboys or the killer-duet, it must be said that this year Fëanor and Eöl have formed an even more dangerous pair and the scales fall toward them being the favourites…

So basically it is even, two strongpoints against two: goaltending and attack for Ac Beleriand, defence and midfield for FC Valinor.

But because of some of the discrepancies there the AKM concludes that AC Beleriand (mostly because of their defences ability to score and the importance of a great finishers – two of them, not just one as Celegorm hasn’t quite shown his qualities this year) is the slight favourites to win the game and proceed to the final.


Hithlum vs. Tol-in-Gaurhoth

Unlike the other semifinal, this one is played between two very different teams by their profiles. Even if the T-i-G –team became famous in their first games as a team that shoots a lot they are now meeting a team that is sovereign in that area: if Hithlum is dangerous in one field of the game, that is shooting. Hithlum shoots a lot and they shoot efficiently – 14 goals in five games gives you the rough idea, it’s almost three goal per game. Meanwhile T-i-G has only made two goals per game.

But on the other side of the coin is the defence. Hithlum has given in seven goals in five matches aka. about 1½ per game – while T-i-G has given in only three goals (a little bit over ½ goal per game).

The question then becomes whether the T-i-G can take the bombardment of Hithlum without allowing too many goals while being able to score enough to win themselves.

One clue to that question lies, naturally, on the goalkeepers. Huor’s percentage of 77,4% is slightly worse than ShastaWolf’s 80%, but when you see that Húor has faced 31 shots while ShastaWolf has only faced 15 the difference kind of melts away – with almost the same percentage Húor has caught 24 shots while ShastaWolf has only caught 12. So a slight edge here woud go to Hithlum.

On the other hand, the difference between goals scored (advantage to Hithlum 14-10 aka less than one third) and goals allowed (advantage to T-i-G 3-7 aka. over half) would bring the advantage back to the T-i-G.

In a sense this is the harder game to predict than the other one, due to the different approaches of the teams to the game.

The AKM is drawn to predict Hithlum to win because of their record in earlier games: unlike T-i-G, Hithlum has played against wildly charging teams and fex. won Nargothrond 5-2 and managed to squeeze a win from the defending champs Eriador – meanwhile T-i-G has shown they have what it takes to beat strong defences but not how to handle a wildly overwhelming attack Hithlum will serve them.