The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

Coppermirror · 08-25-2013, 03:31 PM

Time is getting on and if I'm not careful or anything extra comes up in real life we'll be at deadline before I've finished my analysis for the Day, so I'm going to go ahead and post a quick list now.

Probably an innocent:
McCaber. If he's not, then the real Lover could easily come forward and will probably do so toMorrow at the latest. If Legate was the real other Lover, then a wolf doing a fake reveal would have to be relying on either the real Lover already having left for the Day (for example, Nerwen or Boro) and the sorcerers killing them in the Night, or for it to be Inzil. That's got to be the maximum risk scenario for the sorcerers, and it makes sense for the Lover to come forward ASAP.

Feeling okay about
Shasta - I'm finding his posts and logic easy to follow, and have yet to notice anything suspicious about him. This doesn't mean he's innocent, of course.

Unknown and very confusing:
Holby - I don't have nearly enough information about her, although her later posts are clearer than the first ones.
Echo - Ditto.

Neutral
Boro - Seems fairly well reasoned, and hasn't said anything suspicious of note, but my goodness he could seriously be going under people's radar.
Lottie - Likewise could be going under the radar, except that some people have pointed out that they think she seems like an observer. This could be true. Both Lottie and Boro are pursuing what I think is sensible wolf behaviour and should definitely not be written off as suspects.

Concerning
Lommy - Would have been on the "suspicious of" list, but if she was a sorcerer, I don't think she would have lessened her suspicion of me in her post at #178. Rather, I think she would have taken the opportunity to become more suspicious. But there are still things I'm worried about, and she could just be a very clever sorcerer.

Suspicious of
Kath - I don't like the way she dismissed Boro's vote as throwaway.
Nerwen - didn't vote on Day 1 and didn't make a lot of firm suspicions. I've still got an uneasy feeling about her.
Greenie - Seemed to bring up Lommy earlier on in an irrelevant way. It's unlikely that both of them would be wolves.

I can't help but note that most of the people I'm most suspicious of have been pretty loud. I don't like this. This is one of the natural problems with Werewolf, because it's entirely possible to set a bunch of noisy innocents together to tear themselves to bits while the real wolves are quiet in the background.

Really really really worried about:
Eonwe - he didn't post much yesterDay, and, probably due to time constraints, didn't complete his analysis to the point where it was up to date. There's too little info about him. If he's a sorcerer he really hasn't left much of a trace at all, and that is dreadfully dangerous. But there's nothing to support a vote or draw firm suspicions from.

Edit: cross-posted since Lommy at #178.

08-25-2013, 03:31 PM	#187
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	Time is getting on and if I'm not careful or anything extra comes up in real life we'll be at deadline before I've finished my analysis for the Day, so I'm going to go ahead and post a quick list now. Probably an innocent: McCaber. If he's not, then the real Lover could easily come forward and will probably do so toMorrow at the latest. If Legate was the real other Lover, then a wolf doing a fake reveal would have to be relying on either the real Lover already having left for the Day (for example, Nerwen or Boro) and the sorcerers killing them in the Night, or for it to be Inzil. That's got to be the maximum risk scenario for the sorcerers, and it makes sense for the Lover to come forward ASAP. Feeling okay about Shasta - I'm finding his posts and logic easy to follow, and have yet to notice anything suspicious about him. This doesn't mean he's innocent, of course. Unknown and very confusing: Holby - I don't have nearly enough information about her, although her later posts are clearer than the first ones. Echo - Ditto. Neutral Boro - Seems fairly well reasoned, and hasn't said anything suspicious of note, but my goodness he could seriously be going under people's radar. Lottie - Likewise could be going under the radar, except that some people have pointed out that they think she seems like an observer. This could be true. Both Lottie and Boro are pursuing what I think is sensible wolf behaviour and should definitely not be written off as suspects. Concerning Lommy - Would have been on the "suspicious of" list, but if she was a sorcerer, I don't think she would have lessened her suspicion of me in her post at #178. Rather, I think she would have taken the opportunity to become more suspicious. But there are still things I'm worried about, and she could just be a very clever sorcerer. Suspicious of Kath - I don't like the way she dismissed Boro's vote as throwaway. Nerwen - didn't vote on Day 1 and didn't make a lot of firm suspicions. I've still got an uneasy feeling about her. Greenie - Seemed to bring up Lommy earlier on in an irrelevant way. It's unlikely that both of them would be wolves. I can't help but note that most of the people I'm most suspicious of have been pretty loud. I don't like this. This is one of the natural problems with Werewolf, because it's entirely possible to set a bunch of noisy innocents together to tear themselves to bits while the real wolves are quiet in the background. Really really really worried about: Eonwe - he didn't post much yesterDay, and, probably due to time constraints, didn't complete his analysis to the point where it was up to date. There's too little info about him. If he's a sorcerer he really hasn't left much of a trace at all, and that is dreadfully dangerous. But there's nothing to support a vote or draw firm suspicions from. Edit: cross-posted since Lommy at #178.