[Nogrod]

Group A

First games:
Armenelos vs. The Havens 2-1
Barrow-Downs vs. Valimar 0-2

The Havens vs The Barrow-Downs

Group A is a threeway game and by beating The Havens Armenelos has taken a huge step towards qualification. So it is the Havens’ turn to take the must win over the Barrow-Downs for if they fail in it they can kiss their chances of qualifying good-bye. Now it should be self-evident they will do it but for the Barrow-Wight and Bombadil.

The AKM joins the group of football fans who question the existence of a B-D team as long as it is composed mainly of fictional entities whose only merit is their capability of making lousy jokes and behaving badly. And we hope the AFA would come up with a decent solution of giving the slot to a proper Arda-team the next season.

That said the AKM thinks there is nothing to stop the Havens from winning the game unless Bombadill is awake and willing to play (which we actually hope for fairness-sake he isn’t). For unlike with Valimar there are no Valier to stop him if he suddenly decides to play…

The Havens is actually a pretty tough team and the AKM would see them fighting neck to neck with Valimar for the spot in the qualification. Drawing in the friendlies with this year’s wild card team Inter Beleriand 3-3 and losing to the T-I-G only 1-2 makes them a team one should consider seriously as one to qualify.

If nothing unexpected happens the last round game between The Havens and Valimar will be a real thriller! But before that can take place Havens needs to beat the Barrow-Downs, which the AKM predicts they will.

The AKM predicts: The Havens wins 3-1


Armenelos vs Valimar

Armenelos vs. Valimar will be the hair-rising game of this round. Just think of the historical burden it carries with it and behold! And it will be a very hard one to predict as well.

Now both teams belong to the founding teams of the Arda Cup – and to the first teams to play football in the first place – and still belong to the top ten of the tournament, in the general meaning of the term. Neither though impressed the experts with their friendlies, but yet they both took pretty confident victories from the first round of the group-phase.

To spell that out let’s see their games this year. Armenelos draw 3-3 with the top-quality offence-machine Nargothrond and lost to the serious contenders for the whole Cup AC Beleriand 1-2. Then on the first round of group-play they beat the decently tough team of the Havens 2-1.

Meanwhile Valimar lost to Ulmo’s serious contender-team The Sea 0-1 and got beaten by the flashing Real Valinor 1-3 only to show they still were no pushovers by beating the the Barrow-Downs confidently 2-0.

So looking at the earlier results you might think Armenelos being the slight favourites – and that is the decent deduction. But with team Valimar and Manwê, Namö and Irmö playing nothing is that clear-cut or simple.

Probably one of the toughest games to predict on this round…

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 or Armenelos wins 2-1 (in the situation Arien gets wild Valimar has chances of winning the game, not otherwise)


Group B

First games:
Inter Beleriand vs. Dwarves United 2-1
AC Beleriand vs. Gondolin 2-1

AC Beleriand vs Inter Beleriand

The two Beleriand-teams make it out and while the AC is the obvious big brother when it comes to the success in the footballing-fields Inter seems to have built a very competitive team for this year to challenge their kin and friends.

Now that doesn’t mean AC Beleriand wouldn’t be the favourites to win the game and like last year, leave Inter to fight for the qualification with Gondolin (a fight they lost last season). But Inter did win Doriath and played even with The Havens in the friendlies and then managed the hurdle called the Dwarves United at the first round whose defence many teams fear by scoring two goals.

But looking at the AC Beleriand’s track record & the list of their players brings anyone wishing to see an even game back to the stands: AC Beleriand beat both Armenelos and Anfaughlith 2-1 in the friendlies – like they did with Gondolin on the first round of the group phase.

Long story short: everyone expects AC Beleriand to qualify, with decent reasons, and so the other three teams would only fight it out between themselves for the second position. Inter has beaten Dwarves United and have reason to be content – but as it is possible they need to go on counting goals made and allowed (if they end up in a draw with Gondolin and Dwarves United doesn’t make surprises) so they will be playing defensive trying to contain AC Beleriand -to AC Beleriand a win will do.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins again 2-1 (or 1-0)


Dwarves United vs Gondolin

Gondolin just needs to win this game against Dwarves United. There is no other way to qualify. Now you might ask why we don’t say Dwarves United needs to win this game? Well they lost already to Inter Beleriand and their chances are pretty low indeed while Gondolin “only” lost to AC Beleriand which is most probably going to qualify anyway.

But that doesn’t mean Dwarves Utd. would be giving up because of that. On the contrary. The AKM thinks Dwarves United will be the pain in the – well you know where – for every other team of this group with it’s tough defences and only teams that can really attack can actually walk over them. AC Beleriand seems to have what it takes to do that – and Inter did that already – so now all the pressure is on Gondolin to show they have it as well… And that is the trick of the game.

So the question becomes, whether Gondolin is able to break those defences for good or not. The good news are that they were able to beat tough-defending Arnor last year 4-0 – the bad news are that the architect and hero of that game for Gondolin Gothmog is no longer playing for them.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or Gondolin wins 1-0)


Group C

First games:
Hithlum vs. Real Valinor 1-3
Doriath vs. Shire-Bree United 1-1


Hithlum vs Shire-Bree United

Hithlum faces a “must-win” and Gandalf would be just too happy to deny it from them as the leading player of the underdogs and the team everyone thought would have no chance standing up against the greater teams of the group. Now their draw with the hosts Doriath has changed the mood somewhat and instead of a walk in the park everyone looks forwards to a fighting team Shire-Bree making it hard for Hithlum.

That said, it is clear Hithlum has the quality and stamina Shire-Bree lacks, even if they have proved themselves able to put up a fight. Gandalf, the three Nazgûls and Shadowfax are quality players and able to challenge the human heroes of team Hithlum (even if the Nazgûl were before the rings far lesser breed of kings than the Hithlum-heroes are). But the rest of the team just isn’t able to carry the day for them. Now there have been somewhat justified concerns about the narrowness of Hithlum’s talent as well – but that, the AKM thinks – is relevant only when we start comparing their eighth or ninth toughest player to those of the Real or FC Valimar or AC Beleriand… and not to these Fernys and Butterburs.

Just remembering their games this year might help put things into perspective. In the friendlies Hithlum draw with both Angband (tough team) and Gondolin (pretty tough team) and then lost round 1 game to Real Valinor (super-tough team). Shire-Bree has won the Barrow-Downs (crap team) and drawn with Anduin (decent team) and then on the first round with Doriath (decent / decent minus -team).

Also none of the teams Shire-Bree has met thus far this year has had a real killer-offence. But Hithlum has that. How will their defence handle it is a question worth asking.

So even if there is this nice idea the underdogs could shake the order of the world the AKM sees Hithlum being overall at such a different level that they will claim their first win of the year – and with the self-confidence thus boosted, who knows how far they will go?

The AKM predicts: Hithlum wins 3-1


Doriath vs Real Valinor

There is one clear conclusion to be made from the first round of Group C: Real Valinor is a plain marvellous team and anyone meeting them will have tough times. With Arien gone there seems to be a half-dozen players ready to fill in to score. So if the defence takes one out, another will make the goal. Bad news to any phantasy-players as it is hard to pick the right one from there, but great news for the team.

After the confident victory over Hithlum it is hard to see Real Valinor challenged for real by any other team of this group unless they just relax too much – which doesn’t sound like a plausible idea regarding the personalities playing for the team – and Tulkas as the one calling the shots in the end.

Doriath craves for a win after the disappointing draw with the Shire-Bree and they have the support of the home-crowds, but they just lack quality to pull out one from this game. And it might be added that the draw they played with the Shire-Bree was only partly following from the goodness of the S-B team – and there was also some real lack of flair and excellence in Doriath’s game – and it looks like the home team will not qulify from this group.

Anyway, this is one of the round’s most clear games.

The AKM predicts: Real Valinor wins 2-0 (3-1)


Group D

First games:
Isengard vs. FC Valinor 0-4
Barad-Dûr vs. Gondor 1-1

Barad-Dur vs Isengard

With Barad-Dûr and Gondor drawing their first round match it is then time for Isengard to make their claim for the other qulification-position in this group meeting Barad-Dûr. But unless FC Valinor means to beat the other two teams with such ugly numbers the Isengard-start wasn’t the best one. And lets face it: who would bet on Saruman against Sauron?

One could make a hypothetical case for Isengard by looking at the friendlies and stating that they had a caliber tougher opponents and only lost decentlyish (losing only 1-2 to Wilderland is actually prettu good for a weaker team) whereas Barad-Dûr didn’t convince in their own friendlies (a 0-0 draw with Arnor isn’t the best possible result from a team that aspires to go far in this tournament).

But still. Even if Barad-Dûr isn’t exactly the favourites to go far in the tournament Isengard seems to have little or nothing to throw against their reasonably strong defence.

The AKM predicts: Barad-Dür wins 2-0 (or possibly 2-1)


Gondor vs FC Valinor

The result of the game depends mostly on the attitude of FC Valinor. If they want to play with full strength and give their best there is probably nothing Gondor could mount against them and the game will end something like 6-0.

But that is not probable. FC Valinor got venting some of the steam out making the confident win over Isengard and can now either get some rest from pressures or practise their gameplans – and as Curufin has gotten his confidence back it seems he has nothing to especially show-off this time.

So the only possibility this might turn out an interesting game is if FC Valinor has a total attitude problem and think they can just walk with half-pace, score a few goals and the go home looking for the qualifiers. If that happens, Gondor’s organized team-play might frustrate them and then who knows with a lucky breakthrough by Anarion or Eldacar?

Then again, looking at the roster of FC Valinor it’s hard to see them as a team who would come to the pitch half-heartedly. But it is hard to see them playing with full-effort the whole 90 minutes either. THE script they probably wish to execute is making a few goals and then sitting back making sure the game is won.

Like the other game in this group, this looks like pretty much settled already as to who wins it, but with what kind of a score?

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor’s game-plan holds and they win 3-1 (2-0)


Group E

First games:
Eriador vs. Misty Mountains 2-1
Erebor vs. Wilderland 3-3

MistyMts vs Wilderland

After their pretty mediocre show at the friendlies Misty Mountains made a fresh performance in their game against Eriador and thus made themselves a bit more serious contender for the qualification. But fighting for the second qualification spot against both Erebor and Wilderland looks like a bit too tough a project for them.

Misty Mountains looks actually like a b-class version of the two other teams of the group. They all like to play rough and aggressive and outscore their opponents but whereas both Erebor and Wilderland have quality to actually pull that off Misty Monutains just falls short of it.

Wilderland needs the three points from here and it needs them bad. But the problem is that Misty Mountains defences would look like suited into denying them. Just think of the following: Gwaihir taking off the Nazgûl, Caradhras blocking the slow and unwinged Scatha, Watcher keeping it’s eye on Thranduil and William just blocking the first elves with its size.

But how many of you would betting on that scenario to work in the end – especially as Imin already showed he can score in the first game?

On the other end the ents should be able to hold Azog and Narvi at bay but Durin’s Bane will be a real problem – and it will mean the Misty Mountains will score. But Thranduil and the elves will still outscore Misty Mountains.

The AKM predicts: Wilderland wins 3-1 (3-2)


Erebor vs Eriador

Looking at the last year and the teams in paper this year it would seem Eriador is one of the top contenders to reach the final stages of the tournament once again this year. But somehow the AKM has been – and is – sceptical about their success unless they really show how they play first. If they clear this group with clean stats then yes, the AKM will give them a thumbs up, but before that we will be quite reserved indeed.

And the reason is simple: they haven’t impressed us yet.

Yes, it is not their style to beat the opposing team 6-0 if 1-0 is enough. And yes they can score when they wish to (like they beat the B-D 3-0 in the friendlies – or Gondolin 3-1 last year). But this year they have only won Anduin (decent team) 1-0 and the B-D (crap) 3-0 – and they didn’t impress with their win 2-1 over Misty Mountains on the first round even if you could say the Misty Mts. is a better team some people might think.

If one wishes to think about Eriador’s chances in this tournament they’d need to produce results against teams like Real or FC Valinor, or AC Beleriend, or the T-I-G, or… and there is nothing to show they are able to do that. And the AKM remains sceptical unless they play one tough game and show what they are made of this year.

That said Erebor is kind of a tough opponent to Eriador. The last year’s fourth is a considerable team even if most analysts agree it has weakened from the last year – and losing Gwaihir and Thranduil is exactly that, weakening of the team. Also, the last year they beat Wilderland in the group phase but this year they draw the game. ‘nuff said.

But still, their offence will finally give a preliminary test to Eriador’s overpaid defences (the AKM still thinks the signing of Aragorn and Arwen with 10 million each was a a bad move sportswise even if it felt nice to Elrond).

A lot will depend on how Smaug will fare against the Eriador defences – and in the last instance against Elrond. Nazgûl #7 will have no frightening effect whatsoever against Eriador’s defences and both Bolg and Bard will have hard times trying to outwit Gil-Galad, Aragorn, Arwen and Asfaloth.

But the real question is how confidently Glorfindel and Isildur can play against the eagles – and Beorn at the goal – and do Arveleg and NogWight have what it takes to support them when needed…

The AKM predicts after a lot of to and fro: Eriador wins 2-1 (3-2)


Group F

First games:
Minas Tirith vs. Nargothrond 0-3
The Sea vs. Tirion 1-1


Minas Tirith vs Tirion

Minas Tirith was facing an uphill battle in this group to begin with and then losing to Nargothrond 0-3 didn’t exactly make their situation any easier. To put it bluntly they basically have to beat both The Sea and Tirion to qualify now. And after they lose to Tirion on this coming round it is then clear they will not be qualifying.

Tirion in turn seems to have the bad karma to be always put in a group that has some relatively tough competition. But after their ill luck of being in the same group with both Real and FC Valinor and Armenelos last year they can consider this group a piece of cake – and they would truly deserve to qualify this year. And they have it in their own hands. Now they just have to pick that cake-piece.

But that may also require beating Minas Tirith with as big numbers Nargothrond did it just to be on the safe side – so Tirion will not go for this game intending only to win. They intend to win big.

Will they do that?

Drawing with The Sea gave them the keys. Now they may have some problems with really strong defences like Angband (they drew 1-1 in the friendlies) but Minas Tirith has nothing of the sort Angband has to offer. Then again, if they could score two goals behind Gondolin, scoring at least that much should be no problem against Minas Tirith.

The AKM predicts: Tirion wins 2-0 (3-0)


Nargothrond vs The Sea

Now the Sea might just have a problem. Keeping the scores low and accepting draws might just mean they are going to stay in the group phase with the offensive powerhouse Nargothrond and a very effective Tirion team there to beat the fourth team of the group with bigger numbers the Sea will…

So with a draw with Tirion already under their belt it probably has dawned to Ulmo they can’t afford to draw with Nargothrond any more – or then they need to put up some real fireworks against Minas Tirith.

But Nargothrond will have none of that. They count on their offensive power and will give The Sea a run for their money. And so it will be a real thriller indeed! One of the best defences against one of the toughest offences fight it out – and the proze for the winner is nothing less but a pretty good chances of qualifying (for Nargothrond it would actually be a safe qualification if they win).

For the stat-freaks there is an intereting piece of information: while Nargothrond has made eight goals in their three games this year (two friendlies and one group-game) The Sea has meanwhile only given up one. The opposite numbers are interesting as well: Nargothrond has allowed four goals while The Sea has scored two.

One of the hardest to predict this round…

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or Nargothrond wins 1-0)


Group G

First games:
Anfaughlith vs. Imladris 1-0
Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth 0-2

Imladris vs Tol-In-Gaurhoth

Tol-In-Gaurhoth made quite a spectacular show of their skills and stamina in their first game against Angband – with the restrictions on how many werewolves there can be eased and with a couple of sharp sign-ins they have reached back to the level they used to play years ago. And that spells trouble for Imladris.

If the T-I-G doesn’t win the game with at least two-goal difference the AKM thinks they’re showing a soft spot somewhere – or then they will just be guilty of playing it lazy.

Now that is a possibility – that the werewolves just walk around and hit one ball in – or if Imladris should score by chance before them – they get enraged and miss their chance for the clear sheet. But that is only a possibility – and too probable one.

On the other hand, with a win the werewolf-pack has a chance to nail their qualification in this game and they’d probably wish to do that and – knowing that the number two of this group will most probably meet AC Beleriand in the first qualification round – they are not that crazy to try their luck if they can avoid such an opponent in their first qualification-game.

So the T-I-G has the team, the skills, the toughness and the reason to beat Imladris – and that is exactly what they are going to do.

The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 3-0


Angband vs Anfauglith

Now the game between Angband and Anfaughlith is a tougher one. Melkor and Ungoliant have a mutual history – and they have fought it out before. If Melkor’s Angband would stand against Sauron’s Barad Dûr few would wish to bet on the latter, but Ungoliant’s Anfaughlith is just a few levels tougher a team. And Ungoliant has never been Melkor’s minion…

Looking at the friendlies you could say both had tough opponents. Anband managed to draw with both Hithlum (maybe not so toug a team afterall?) and Tirion (a good team but needs to fight for qualification), whereas Anfaughlith lost narrowly 1-2 against both AC Beleriand (one of the toughest this year) and Nargothrond (with their killer-offence).

One might say Anfaughlith’s first round win over Imladris only 1-0 was a disappointment and might tell of a lack of quality in the team – and that would not be totally unfair a judgement as Anfaughlith hasn’t been a top scoring team at any point. But then again Angband’s humiliating loss to the T-I-G werewolves 0-2 is if possible even a darker shadow hanging over Morgoth’s team.

And looking at the group it will be this game that decides the second qualifier. So neither will back off or give ground to the other even an inch.

It is a game of survival.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (or then Angband wins 2-1 with Melkor having a major role in at least one of the goals)


Group H

First games:
Mordor vs. Rohan 2-0
Anduin vs. Arnor 2-0


Arnor vs Mordor

Many media outlets were saying that Arnor would be topping the table while the AKM said Anduin would rule over them – and well that’s what happened. Now Arnor needs to win if they wish to have any hopes of qualification alive – but they might be facing a tougher opponent anyone expected; or then the Rohanians are just an easily scared bunch of lesser men of late ages (well, which they are, actually).

But then comes the common sense and settles the matter: if Gondor was able to beat Mordor 3-1 then why couldn’t Arnor do the same – and there is a nice comparison to them, do they wish to be outperformed by their southern brothers and cousins?

Just looking at the overall price-tag of their team it must be admitted that Shelob, Mouth and the two Nazgûls have fared a lot better anyone expected thus far – but giving them the easily scared Rohanians as their first opponent may have boostec their image a bit over it’s real value.

The AKM still thinks Arnor will qualify, led by the Witch King – only to be devoured by whoever comes to meet them from group A – but nevertheless.

The AKM predicts: Arnor wins 2-0 (2-1)


Anduin vs Rohan

Now Rohan may prove to be a tougher opponent to Anduin than Arnor was – but nothing they couldn’t handle. Then again, if Rohan wishes to keep any hopes alive for qualification they must win the game – and if they fall in trying too much Anduin will surely punish them for that.

So it will not be a walk in the park for Anduin but they will emerge the victors in the end whether they just prove themselves the better team or punish the Rohanians for too far-reaching attack. For Anduin defences are far better than those of Rohan or Arnor – and if one of the teams from this group could challenge a team from group A it would be Anduin (well, we’d doubt their chances against Armenelos but against Valimar or The Havens they might put up a fight).

Rohan will play serious and will get some balm to their wounds as now everyone laughs at them, but it will most probably not be enough.

The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 1-0