[Nogrod]

Group A


Armenelos vs. The Havens

Both teams have been scoring and allowing goals pretty heavily. Even if it has also something to do with the opposition they’ve had in the friendlies it still tells one that both teams are perfectly cabable of scoring and neither has a defence of steel. So look forwards to some scoring with this game.

Both teams have lost to a contender to the whole cup and drawn with a serious team so the set up is both interesting and evenish. The winner of this one will be very near qualification already after the first game so the stakes are high – and a draw is a possibility.

Some factors do suggest Armenelos are slight favourites over The Havens.

First of all Armenelos has two sharp-shooters who can win games alone aka. Elros and Ar Pharazôn, whilst the Havens has to trust Eärendil will score (he has been in flames in the friendlies to be sure) – but Armenelos also has Ar Adunakhôr and Tar Ancalimôn in front who are more than perfectly measuring up to anything Cirdan or Falastur might have up in their sleeve on the other end.

Secondly, on overall terms Armenelos looks like a more solid team with basically no weak links anywhere whereas The Havens has some weaknesses in the center midfield – and partly in the defence. Also Tar Atanamir and Amandil might be more or less equal goalies but Tar Atanamir has a lot more experience and is probably an inch more reliable because of that.

The AKM predicts: Armenelos wins 2-1.


The Barrow-Downs vs. Valimar

Valimar hasn’t been too convincing in the friendlies even if one pays heed to the toughness of their opponents. Unless Arien finds her place in the Valimar attack there isn’t too much for them and their supporters to look forwards to this year. To their relief they can start the tournament with yet one more rehersal-game as there is no way the Barrow-Downs will pose any threat to Valimar – or to any other teams of the group.

Now you may ask “what about Bombadil?”, and you are right in asking that question. Old Tom is one of the best players in the whole Arda, but even he can’t win games single-handedly. Just look at the rosters and behold: Manwë, Mandos, Lórien, Arien, Estë, Vairë… and one Bombadil to beat them?

The Barrow-Wight is a good player as well, and the other Wights could prove their worth with the Saucepan Man and Hookbill – but yet they are just on another plane. Unless of course there is something only Manwë and Mandos understand regarding to Eru’s plans and therefore “miracles happen”.

But rather than betting on that the AKM suggests you bet for Valimar to win the game – but not with any humiliating scorelines, unless Arien finds her touch and is given the freedom to score.

The AKM predicts: Valimar wins 1-0 or 2-0 (2-1).


Group B


Inter Beleriand vs. Dwarves United

Whichever team wins this game is a major step nearer qualification as it is hard to believe both teams could beat AC Beleriand so that they both had a chance to qualify. And there will be no lesser team than Gondolin to mix in.

Comparing this group to fex. group H makes one smile or weep – depending on one’s character.

Anyway, Inter Beleriand is putting on some real effort this year and seem to be very serious with their goal of qualification. And they are put into the hardest test possible already in their first competitive game facing the masters of defence Dwarves United who have only strengthened their defence from last year by hiring Galadriel to protect their goal.

The game smells of a draw, but yet there are also certain factors that might change it. Last year Erebor was able to break Dwarves Utd’s defences for good, but then they had a dragon to do that. Now Galadriel’s cousins Fingon and Maedhros are no dragons but could be considered tough enough to have a chance trying. On the dwarven side, last year the responsibilty for scoring was laid more or less solely on the shoulders of Celebrimbor (from the defence!). This season Telchar has scored a goal – and all eyes are keen on Legolas to finally show why he is paid double the salary of Telchar.

To summarize: Dwarves United has issues with scoring but defends masterfully. Inter in turn has strengthened considerably by getting Beren to aid in the offence and Lúthien sure makes the life even harder for the Dwarven attackers. A low-scoring draw then?

The AKM predicts: draw 1-1 (0-0) or Inter wins 1-0.


AC Beleriand vs. Gondolin

AC Beleriand is one of the favourites to win the whole tournament and faces now a “must-win” game against Gondolin. And seeing that Gondolin was able to stop Hithlum on the second round of friendlies it is clear they are not looking forwards to a lazy afternoon walk in the park. This group is a pain for every team.

Gondolin on the other hand seems to be facing yet another uphill-struggle. Last year they were able to qualify before Inter Beleriand but were kicked off from the tournament by none other team but AC Beleriand on the first play-off round.

Now many think Gondolin has actually strengthened somewhat for this year even if they have almost the same budget they had last year (a lot depends on whether you think changing Gothmog into Tuor and Idril is a good or bad change). But to their horror both Beleriand teams have not only poured in more money, but they have strengthened seriously with that added cash. And the Dwarves United have gotten Galadriel to keep their goal to make scoring against them even harder.

Why AC Beleriand then wins this game? Tirion showed the defences of Gondolin can be opened and if that was done with the offensive trio Mahtan, Aredhel and Finwë, then why not with the quartet Fëanor, Eöl, Aegnor and Angrod? There are certain striking similarities there – and AC Beleriand will cling on them.

The AKM predicts: AC Beleriand wins 2-0 (or 2-1).


Group C


Hithlum vs. Real Valinor

One of the fanciest games of the first round – if not even the killer of the round. Two teams both with budgets over 100 million aim high this year – and not qualifying would be a disaster. Although the game isn’t such a “win or die” -one (like Inter Beleriand vs. Dwarves Utd. or Erebor vs. wilderland will be) as even the team that doesn’t win has everything in it’s own hands, and by beating both Shire-Bree and Doriath will qualify – something you could imagine both teams more than cabable of doing whatever happens in this game.

Many thought – the AKM included – that Real Valinor had weakened considerably from last year by selling two key-players off but looking at the friendlies it seems they haven’t weakened an inch. On the contrary: the champions of the last season look as sharp and devastating as ever and will seriously compete for renewing their title of the champions.

Hithlum in turn has strengthened considerably and is mortgaging all the belongings of the great house of Hador to change their fortunes this time around. With Beleg back on Túrin’s side and Húrin and Hador as constant threats around them there is no team in this tournament that could just count on shutting them out.

As both teams leak somewhat in their defences and score heavily one might look forwards to a feast of goals – and the deciding factor will be whether one can outscore the other. The game really feels like a draw as both teams would be quite content with it but if forced to bet on one team winn ing the AKM might put their money for Real Valinor.

The AKM predicts: draw 3-3.


Shire-Bree United vs. Doriath

The name of the game is clear. The team losing this game will need to say farewell to any dreams of qualifying this year as that would more or less demand them to beat both Real Valinor and Hithlum in the next games – a challenge only a few teams could match even in principle.

That said the winner isn’t having any better chances in qualifying as they’d need still put one of the two giants of this group behind them. But surely one miracle is more probable than two.

It is hard to compare the friendlies the two have played when Doriath was completely overrun by a truck named T-I-G while Shire-Bree had to do a full day’s work to beat the Barrow-Downs. On the other games Shire-Bree was left with a draw against Anduin while Doriath lost after a good fight to Inter Beleriand only 0-1.

Shire-Bree has in a way better-looking results but Doriath has faced a caliber or two tougher teams. So fex. allowing goals: it looks like Doriath allows a lot of goals (four in two matches) and Shire-Bree scores nicely (three in two) – so Shire-Bree will score against Doriath a few goals with some ease?

Well, first of all Doriath conceded three goals against the hurricane called T-I-G and actually defended well enough allowing a tough team like Inter Beleriand (Maedhros, Fingon, Beren) only to score one. Meanwhile Shire-Bree scored only two against one of the weakest teams, the Barrow-Downs, and only managed one goal against the at best mediocre team of Anduin.

Doriath’s scoring-form remains unknown though and Shire-Bree’s defence against serious opposition is totally untested as yet, so it is hard to predict the outcome.

The AKM predicts: draw 1-1.


Group D


Isengard vs. FC Valinor

No sane person would bet on Isengard on this one. Eönwe, Thorondor and Huan are more than a match for Saruman however powerful Maia he might be – and totally unimpressed by a Nazgûl. And if someone is fit to fool the ents in the defence it is Yavanna, not to talk of the brothers Curufin and Celegorm who will just frighten the living daylights off the Isengard-orcs however bred to stand light they would be.

Indeed the AKM will predict a slaughter here.

The ball is round and sometimes even the best teams just have a bad day – or the lousy teams surprise everyone – but it is not this day and this game where that happens.

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor wins 3-0 (4-0).


Barad-Dûr vs. Gondor

The stakes are high in a game between Barad Dûr and Gondor, as it more or less decides the other qualifier from this group – unless Isengard organises a super-surprise and beats them both in the later games. Which the AKM will not believe they will do.

In a way it is a game of the Gondorian kings against Sauron’s Foreign Legion of beasts, eastern wizards, Black Númenorians and other darker characters from the outskirts of the Gondorian realm. So it is fitting as well that it is just these two teams battling it out in the football field. There will be some extra sparks in the air when Eldacar and Castamir, or Anárion and Sauron to that matter, meet again. And only one of the two teams has a chance to flourish.

Looking at the firendlies it might look like Gondor would be the more effective team of the two – although their draw with Minas Tirith doesn’t look that impressive. Meanwhile, even if their scoring has been lower Barad Dûr has drawn with Arnor which is definitively better team than Minas Tirith, and they have beaten Misty Mountains – which in turn is definitively tougher team than Mordor whom Gondor beat in their first friendly game.

So even if this game too smells somewhat like a draw the AKM would give an edge to Barad Dûr – not the least because they have Sauron who is not used into losing on the initial rounds of any effort he gives.

The AKM predicts: Barad Dûr wins 2-1, or a draw 1-1.


Group E


Eriador vs. Misty Mountains

Eriador should win Misty Mountains and even quite comfortably if they look forwards to achieving glory in the tournament this year. The only questionmark is the current readiness and striking power of Eriador as they have not been tested in the friendlies for real.

Misty Mountains in turn has toughened their defences with Gwaihir and Caradhras (in exchange to the two soft-headed trolls Tom and Bert) but has still given up two goals in both of its friendlies – against quite modest teams of Imladris and Barad Dûr.

So in comparison Eriador should score at least three. The question being only, can they do that now when it is needed and there is no Witch King to do that for them? Glorfindel sure is ready for it, but how about Isildur, Arveleg or NogWight – they’d need to start to deliver if Eriador wishes to go far in this tournament. And with that kind of investment it is clear that is what they mean – and mean it seriously.

Some pressure on team Eriador then while Misty Mountains have nothing to lose from this game as their primary targets will be Erebor and Wilderland – and thusly the second qualification. That spells for a more even game.

The AKM predicts: Eriador wins 2-0 (or 2-1).


Erebor vs. Wilderland

No soft beginnings for the two teams here but possibly the single most important game in the group-rounds will be given to them as starters. Now Misty Mountains might prove a problem to either of the two and both have a chance to beat Eridor on a great day, but just looking at it from a conservative POV it is this game they have to win if they wish to qualify – and losing this particular game would be the worst case scenario for both of them.

With little to say from the friendlies – both did win some of the poorest teams of the tournament with dismal records and Wilderland draw goalless with the Dwarves Utd. – one does well to look at the rosters.

Beorn against the Great Warg. Point for Erebor from goalkeepers.

In defence two eagles, Thorin Oakenshield and the last lord of the Dale against two ents, an elven king and a wizard. The two eagles make it turn just so to the side of Erebor.

In the midfield a dwarven warrior-king, his human fellow-king in arms and the orc-leader (Azog’s son) Bolg against the pretty sad “first-awaken” and an entwife. No problem in giving the point to Erebor.

The offence looks the closest. The two Nazgûl kind of cancel each other out. Smaug gets the better of the two dragons but then again Thranduil beats Bard in scoring quite easily – especially as Bard has been quite disappointing this year after his great season last year. Draw here, or a slight edge to Wilderland.

So two points to Erebor from goalkeeping and the midfield, and half points to Erebor from the defence and Wilderland for offence – two and a half agains half points.

The AKM predicts: Erebor wins 2-1 (or they draw 2-2).


Group F


Nargothrond vs. Minas Tirith

Now Minas Tirith is not a bad team and they will be full of energy to show especially the big media that they are no pushovers. But it might just be they have had the worst of luck with the lottery for the groups and will have no chance to show the Arda how good they could have been against a little lesser opponents than the ones they meet in this group.

For it is just true that all the other teams of the group: The Sea, Nargothrond and Tirion could all go as far as the semifinals, or even further on a good day – and at the same time at least one of them will stay in the group-stage. Now whether they are willing to let Minas Tirith come and muddle the already tough competition for the two qualifying places can be asked but the answer is clear.

That said Nargothrond has one of the most crushing offences this tournament has and they have scored five goals in two games against such tough adversaries that only Real Valinor might boast of a similar feat. And with Minas Tirith giving in two goals to both Erebor and Gondor one might foresee that Nargothrond will score at least as much, if not more against them.

So the rest depends merely on whether Mardil can still score when the real games begin – or whether fex. Boromir comes alive again. Nargothrond isn’t exactly the champions of defence and their game-plan often is just outscoring the opponent. So how many Minas Tirith will score?

The AKM predicts: Nargothrond wins 3-1 (4-2).


Tirion vs. The Sea

A very important game for both teams here as a loss would make qualification a lot harder for either team. That in turn smells like a draw, but lets see what could make it otherwise.

Now the Sea likes to play from defence onwards and to suffocate any enemy offences. You could say it is easy to do that to Valimar if you have players with enough quality as they won’t rage back, but to shut out FC Valinor is a deed indeed – and showing they can do it they have also warned all the other teams that people should not only talk of the Dwarves Utd. as a team that can kill off the opponent’s attacking spirits.

That said Tirion has shown their defences are not bad either. Shutting out Gondolin is a fair result and only allowing Angband one goal isn’t bad either. But on the other end of the field they scored two against Gondolin and one against Angband showing also their potential in scoring.

So it will be a fight on one hand of Aredhel, Finwë and Mahtan against Tar Aldarion and Tar Minastir – and on the other the sons of Fëanor against the Ulmo led Maiar in defence.

It would be easy to say that Tirion gets the points from offence and The Sea from defence.

So a draw then? Most probably.

The AKM predicts: Draw 1-1 (0-0).


Group G


Anfaughlith vs. Imladris

Give Imladris a little easier group and they’d fight for qualification with their Varda-led defence, but sadly they have been allotted into a group of some real bloodthirsty beasts and greater evil only too happy to play it vicious, cruel and aggressive.

But maybe, in a sense, it is fitting that it is exactly Elbereth GIlthoniel who is leading the one team of light facing Morgoth, Ungoliant and the Werewolves. Maybe.

The hope Imladris has in this game relies in Varda taking out Gothmog and the other defenders being able to deal with Ecthelion together. That accomplished they might hope for a low scoring game from Ungoliant’s team. And it is here where losing Elros from the goal seems to cut deep.

On the other end Elladan and Elrohir would need to score past the Balrogs and finally Ungoliant which seems like a bit too tough a task to ask from the noble but young elves. So we probably don’t see too many goals on Anfaughlith’s end either.

Anfaughlith will score at least one. Will Imladris be able to counter that is the question.

The AKM predicts: Anfaughlith wins 1-0 (2-1), or they draw 1-1.


Angband vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth

If Hithlum vs. Real Valinor is one of the highlights of this round then this one is the other. There will be blood on the arena and the fight will be tough. And there is a reason for both teams not willing to lose this game, or to come second in their group in general as that would most probably mean facing AC Beleriand on the first round of the play-offs – something no sane team would do voluntarily.

Now whether the werewolves of the T-I-G are sane is another matter altogether. And anyway, even the winner of the group will have a tough opponent in Inter Beleriand, Dwarves Utd. or Gondolin. And Anfaughlith sure wants to mess with the qualifying as well. Both teams just need a win then and so neither will settle with a draw unless it is the last minutes.

Angband has drawn with Hithlum and Tirion in the friendlies while T-I-G has beaten Doriath for good and won the Havens 2-1. So what to make of it? Basically nothing. Angband has drawn with really tough teams and T-I-G has won somewhat weaker ones (even though Havens is actually quite a good team).

At the goal ShastaWolf has proved to be a top keeper during the years, but so has Carcaroth. There is no clear difference there even if ShastaWolf might be just that weeny bit more reliable.

In defence T-I-G has the more solid team overall with three werewolves, including the sire of all werewolves Draugluin. But aided with a Balrog and Tevildo’s servant Umuiyan Angband has Morgoth – the kind of a clutch-player any team would envy weren’t he what he is. Yet Morgoth’s presence makes it a draw in defence, if not turns it slightly on their favour.

The midfield is the weak spot for both teams, but one where the easterlings of Angband seem to match the Wights of T-I-G. But Phantomwolf might just be a more dangerous player compared to Oikeroi – even if the latter has a close relationship with their forwards Tevildo and Phantomwolf lacks his longtime-mate NogWolf from the attack.

In offence Thuringwethil beats Tevildo quite easily but then again Ancalagon is a greater threat than InzilWolf – even if the latter can be a menacing forwards as well.

So all in all it is very even indeed – but maybe surpisingly to some – the slight edge would go to Tol In Gaurhoth –team. A lot depends on the role Morgoth is willing to play though.

The AKM predicts: Draw 2-2, or T-I-G wins 3-2.


Group H


Mordor vs. Rohan

Now many words have been used describing the “under-budgeting” of team Mordor and how they have no chance whatsoever to do anything. But happily for them they are in a group where even such a bunch of players with no expectations could play a part – if not otherwise then as kingmakers.

Even if the level of the game in group H isn’t exactly blinding it has made the betting agencies and media-houses make different predictions and is honestly quite a tough group to call. But what most agencies have in common is the fact that Mordor does not figure in their predictions as a qualifier – and the AKM agrees with that verdict.

Like said, even if they wouldn’t be qualifying they might make a difference and it is easy to see that their Nazgûls and Shelob might affect especially a team like Rohan – and to have the least extra effect on Anduin.

What gives hope to Rohan is that Gondor beat Mordor 3-1 in the friendlies and they’d only need to gather the pride and strength of their ancient neighbours to do the same – but that is the trick. Winning Isengard is another thing than meeting the beasts of Mordor even if their game isn’t any better than what Isengard has to offer. And one does well to remember that Mordor only lost to Erebor 0-1.

The AKM predicts: Rohan wins 1-0 or a draw 0-0.


Anduin vs. Arnor

Many think this to be the game that decides the winner of the group – others think Rohan has a word to say in it. Be that as it may, it will be a tough game and very hard to call.

The AKM has Anduin as the favourites to win this game because of two reasons: more solid performance in the friendlies and a more solid team. Let us be particular about those.

In the friendlies Anduin lost to Eriador only 0-1 and draw with Shire-Bree while Arnor draw with both Barad Dûr and Imladris. Both teams scored only one goal in the two friendlies they played but Anduin allowed one in both whereas Arnor allowed only one.

Now of the teams they met Eriador should be on the league of it’s own and thusly the result should be taken as what it is – a good performance. Also Shire-Bree with it’s Gandalf-led offence looks a bit sharper than Imladris or Barad Dûr, even if the difference isn’t that great. So taken that together, Anduin has a better record from the friendlies.

As we look at the rosters Arnor has the Witch King in the offence and Elendil and Malbeth in defence and Arvedui at the goal. That is pretty decent but the other players are not even near the quality of the aforementioned.

Anduin instead has not the kind of stars like the Witch King, but has depth beyond Arnor – and some pretty well-seasoned players as well; like Grimbeorn and Eorl in the attack, Boromir and Haldir in the midfield, and Fram, Celeborn and Felarof in the defence. Amroth isn’t probably as great a keeper than Arvedui but he’s a seasoned one as well and can do his job well enough – at least for this group.

So unless the Witch King gets a boost and goes for a rampage Anduin will win it – even if a draw is a possible scenario as well.

The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 1-0 (or a draw 0-0).