Elenrod: Today: Four people gather in a room, talk about two groups of eleven people kicking a ball around, and figure out which group will get the ball past a line surrounded by a netted box a greater number of times. This is the
Matchday’s 2013 Arda Cup preview episode. I’m your host, Elenrod, and with me today is our secret weapon in the battle for network ratings, tactics expert Maikalomion.
Maika: Thanks.
Elenrod: He loved being in the show so much, he wanted to do it again. Iorithil of
QN Sport is also here.
Felagundion: No new book out this time?
Iorithil: No, basically, I’m just hiding from the angry Gondolin fans.
Felagundion: That was a suicidal article you wrote about Rog. I expected Adam or Hunter U. Nogson to be chased by an angry mob, but not you, Iorithil.
Elenrod: And the one who’ll never be gone, mainly because he has a huge debt to pay, Felagundion the blogger.
Felagundion: With Eru’s grace, I’ll escape this terrible fate.
Elenrod: In 231 years’ time. Now, let’s get on with the discussion. Which teams would get out of their groups, which teams would fail? We’ll start with Group A. Now, we have tactical brain Maikalomion. We also have footballing scholar Iorithil. So, Felagundion, what do you think?
Felagundion: Haha! Well, I’ve always pegged Manwë down as a serial choker, and Armenelos and the Havens are doing better in the friendlies, so I’ll have those teams advancing as top seed and second.
Elenrod: Even with Arien in Valimar?
Felagundion: That’s a tough one, yes—I’ve always been a fan of the Sun Lady. But she’s being constrained by Manwë. This reminds me of Lothlórien in 2011, when Fëanor, a perennial Golden Boot contender, wasn’t getting enough touches because of Galadriel’s negative tactics. So I guess I’ll start a ‘Free Arien’ movement.
Elenrod: Maika?
Maika: I’ll have to agree with Felagundion. She’s taken only eight shots in two games for Valimar. Last year with Real Valinor she averaged six shots per game, even with Míriel, Nerdanel, and Nessa in the squad. Now, even though she’s supposed to be the focal point of the offence, she’s often isolated up front due to a lack of service. But I think Valimar will go through; I just trust their defence more.
Iorithil: But in the group stage, scoring is more vital to qualification than defending, although the reverse is true come knockout stages. Still, I don’t think any team in Group A can stop an in-form Arien, except maybe Armenelos. So, for me, Armenelos wins the group, then Valimar second.
Maika: Same for me; I don’t think Eärendil and company can score enough against Armenelos or Valimar.
Elenrod: So you’re all basically ignoring the Downer—pardon, the Barrow-Downs.
Iorithil: Not in this group; I don’t think even Bombadil would be enough to offset their defensive frailty. In 2011 he led the Forest out of the group stage, but basically all he had to do was outscore Mordor and an understrength Nargothrond side.
Elenrod: So, the consensus is
Group A- Armenelos
- Valimar
- The Havens
- The Barrow-Downs
Elenrod: Moving along. Group B, anyone?
Maika: The two Beleriands for me, AC Bel then Inter. Everyone now knows how to stop Gondolin—basically, you stop Idril and Elemmakil, like Tirion did. And Dwarves United still can’t score consistently enough.
Iorithil: I think the Dwarves can pick up their offence once the tourney starts. I’d pick them to advance second behind AC Bel. But this is one tough group—only one I’m reasonably sure of advancing is AC Bel, and everyone else has a fair chance.
Felagundion: I’m with Maika here. AC Bel are the best team here, top to bottom, but Inter have a more cohesive squad than Gondolin, who look better on paper. And everyone and their mothers now know that you have to mark Celebrimbor, like Rohan did, and I think the other three teams here can make him a non-factor in Dwarf U’s offence.
Group B- AC Beleriand
- Inter Beleriand
- Dwarves United
- Gondolin
Elenrod: On to Group C, then.
Felagundion: I think these gents will all agree with me: Real first then Hithlum.
Iorithil: Agreed; basically just a gulf in quality between them and the rest.
Maika: I concur. Doriath no longer have players like Beleg and Lúthien who can fit in any tactical system they’d need to nullify opponents, and Daeron will now be in every team’s scouting notes—they’ll prioritise shutting him down so he can’t deliver his trademark through passes. Also, Shire-Bree look solid, but they no longer have a genuine game-changer in Bombadil.
Elenrod: Who’d be your dark horse pick, though, one who might spring a surprise?
Iorithil: If Nellas and Saeros become one-tenth as versatile as Beleg and Lúthien, or if Elwing becomes Melian-lite as a full-back, I’d say Doriath have a chance. A very slim one, though.
Felagundion: Doriath for me as well. SBU’s three attackers are about as good as Doriath’s but they have no Melian in the defence.
Elenrod: So for this group, we have
Group C- Real Valinor
- Hithlum
- Doriath
- Shire-Bree United
Elenrod: Now, Group D. FC Valinor, and then who else?
Iorithil: Hehe, so, basically, you think FC Val’s a shoo-in? Well, I agree—you’d have to be blind or a total fanatic of the other three teams if you believe they won’t win this group.
Felagundion: Only Sauron has a chance of making it into the FC Valinor squad—that’s how big the gap in quality is. And I absolutely hate Sauron.
Maika: Well, for second, I think Barad-dûr would do it. As Felagundion said, they have the best non-FC Val player, and Grishnákh’s quite a surprise. Fourth-best goalie—even for friendlies, no one expected that. Right now, he’s better than Huan.
Felagundion: But that’s against Arnor and Misty Mts. FC Val had to play Real and the Sea.
Maika: They still hava the Witch-king and Durin’s Bane. Look, no one’s saying they’ll keep a clean sheet against Curufin and company, but against Gondor and Isengard, he might be enough.
Felagundion: I still trust Gondor. The two forwards you mentioned didn’t play hard against Sauron, but Anarion will. And Eldacar and Meneldil are right there with him.
Elenrod: Iorithil? You hold the tiebreaker. Alternatively, you can choose Isengard and screw us all over.
Iorithil: Haha, tempting, but no. Saruman’s squad might have a chance in Group H, but here, he’s basically toast. Hmm, I’d have to go with Barad-dûr. Like with Armenelos and TiG, Sauron won’t want to be left in the group again this year.
Elenrod: All right, then.
Group D- FC Valinor
- Barad-dûr
- Gondor
- Isengard
Elenrod: Next up is Group E. Two semifinalists from last year in this group, I see.
Maika: And I’d pick them. Wilderland were held scoreless by Dwarf U—Eriador and Erebor could do the same to them. And Misty Mts’s defence just isn’t working, even with Gwaihir and Caradhras.
Iorithil: I’m assuming that’s Eriador first, Erebor second. I agree, although I think Wilderland has a fair chance of upsetting one of them. Remember: Scatha and Thranduil once basically willed Mirkwood to the semis against stronger competition.
Felagundion: That makes three of us; I think the E’s are advancing in Group E. By the way, I do hope Elrond keeps his ‘concede one goal or less’ streak alive.
Elenrod: Unanimous decision, then.
Group E- Eriador
- Erebor
- Wilderland
- Misty Mts
Elenrod: Let’s proceed to Group F.
Maika: I think the Sea have a good chance of winning the group, even if Tirion and Nargothrond look slightly better. Their defence is just on another level, and I think Tar-Minastir and company will put their shooting boots on when the real games start. As for the second spot, I like how Tirion kept a clean sheet against Gondolin. They can muzzle Nargothrond’s attack.
Iorithil: I don’t know; Tirion seem more balanced, and Nargothrond have got that crazy look in their eyes where they’ll turn every match into a scoring contest. I’d give Tirion a better chance than them, and between them and Nargothrond it’s basically a coin flip.
Felagundion: I always say Nargothrond win their group, so as for who goes second . . . I think the Sea can beat Tirion.
Elenrod: And Minas Tirith? They managed to advance to the quarterfinals last year.
Maika: They came from the lousiest group that year, then frustrated a disjointed Angband side who haven’t adjusted yet fully to playing without their midfield anchor Tilion. This is a group of teams who are settled with their identities. They’ll stick to what they do best and beat Minas Tirith there.
Felagundion: I’ve also read a lot of articles praising Mardil, thinking that he could be the star who could bring them out of this group. I mean, Mardil is good player, but he hasn’t exactly pulled up too many trees yet. Well, maybe he’ll start single-handedly winning games like Anarion did last year; we’ll see.
Elenrod: This was a tough group to tally, but basically
Group F- The Sea
- Tirion
- Nargothrond
- Minas Tirith
Elenrod: We move on to Group G.
Felagundion: With all due respect to Iorithil, but for me this one’s the Group of Death. There’s Imladris who qualified last year—admittedly, they were roadkill for Erebor in the first round, but still. There’s Angband and TiG, who didn’t qualify for last year, but that was an aberration, I tell you. They will come back angry this year. And you have Anfauglith, who
should have qualified over Doriath last year,
and they improved their squad. I have no idea who’ll qualify, let alone who’ll win this group. Well, think Imladris won’t qualify, but I’m not sure, because the sons of Elrond look like they know now how to score.
Elenrod: But do you have a blind guess?
Felagundion: I’d say, hmm, Angband, then TiG.
Maika: The same teams for me, but in reverse order. The Werewolves look in good form.
Felagundion: But compare their friendly opponents to Angband’s. Morgoth had a tougher schedule, and he didn’t lose, either.
Maika: But TiG have a better midfield, so they’d keep the ball better. The Easterlings don’t press effectively to recover possession; they’ll just fall back to Morgoth’s lap, like they did vs Tirion. When Finwë dropped to the midfield, no one pressured him. Balrog #1 had to step up to close him down, but that just left space for Aredhel to run into and receive Caranthir’s pass.
Iorithil: I’d go with current form again and say TiG wins the group. But I’ll agree with Felagundion—basically, it’s all very close. Even Anfauglith, who had a shambolic form in the friendlies, have a chance to get it together and qualify. They have the personnel to do it, after all.
Elenrod: The two gang up on Felagundion again.
Group G- Tol-in-Gaurhoth
- Angband
- Anfauglith
- Imladris
Elenrod: And last—certainly looking the least—we have group H.
Felagundion: They do look like roadkills for the Group A teams who qualify. Anduin has the best squad on paper, but Arnor and Rohan looks like they can outperform them.
Maika: Arnor, yes, but I think Anduin would still make it, squeeze past Rohan for the second spot.
Iorithil: And here I’d agree with Felagundion. Rohan’s loss to the Dwarves look bad compared to Anduin’s loss to Eriador, but their win against Isengard looks better than Anduin’s draw with Shire-Bree.
Elenrod: So Mordor’s basically fish food in a group of minnows.
Group H- Arnor
- Rohan
- Anduin
- Mordor
Elenrod: All right, then. Before we go, do any of you have predictions regarding the knockout rounds? Maybe even the champion.
Felagundion: Nargothrond will be champions, like I always hope for.
Maika: AC Bel, Eriador, and TiG make the semis. The last slot would be decided by another Valinor derby. I think FC Val will win that.
Iorithil: I have none. I just hope the games would start now.
Elenrod: And so indeed do the rest of us. And with that, we’ve come to the end of another show. Thank you all: Maika, Felagundion, Iorithil. From all of us here at TENT: Enjoy the games.