[Nogrod]

GROUP A
Armenelos
The Barrow-Downs
The Havens
Valimar

The Barrow-Downs (last year called “the Downer”) might have evolved into a semi-serious team but it will not be qualifying this year, even if Bombadill can vreac some havoc when having an interest on it. With the other teams it gets more problematic.

Over half of the team of the Havens has changed since last year but it looks pretty solid like it did last season. Losing Tuor and the twin sons of Eärwen is a huge loss though – and hard to compensate. The results from the friendlies were promising anyway and The Havens will fight seriously for qualification.

Manwë has been able to both cut the costs and level-up the team. And the brightest change of all is of course getting Arien into the team. With Manwë and his closest pal Mandos, and some other awe-inspiring players, Valimar sure isn’t the team one thinks of beating just like that. But then on the other hand Valimar has rarely shown excellence in the field (except against teams of “baddies”). All eyes will be glued to Arien then, for it is up to her – and up to others to deliver the ball to her – whether Valimar qualifies or not.

Armenelos has been only waiting for this season to show that what happened the last year will not repeat itself. They are intent on going far in this torunament. As one of the very few teams that have clearly gotten stronger this year, they also seem pretty serious about it. Elros is a great add-on to the team both mentally and sportively.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: Armenelos
Fight for the second spot: Valimar, The Havens
Will not qualify: The Barrow-Downs

Scorers: Eärendil, Elros and Ar-Pharazôn, if you want to go for a possible jackpot try Arien or Bombadill.
Defenders & Keepers: no good picks in this group – or you could try Manwë / Valimar defenders. All highest defenders have a history of scoring every now and then, only not too often (except Tar Telperien a few years ago).



GROUP B
AC Beleriand
Inter Beleriand
Dwarves United
Gondolin

In principle any of the four teams could qualify from this group, but there are differences as well: if AC Beleriand qualifies it is more or less no news, but if Dwarves United does it is big news.

Dwarves United did qualify the last year (albeit from a lot weaker group) and has basically just strengthened from that by getting Galadriel to keep the goal. Their friendlies haven’t given any reason for the fans to get too excited but they have not been too challenging either. But what they have clearly shown is that like last year it will be hard to score against them.

Gondolin has been having a dry time for a few years now and everyone is waiting for them to bounce back again into the bright lights. With Tuor and Idril back in town the hopes are up again. Forcing Hithlum into a draw was a great feat but losing 0-2 to Tirion in the first friendly was less flattering. So they are facing the season with mixed feelings.

Inter Beleriand acquired Beren and Lúthien for this season and are serious about qualifying. If Turgon and the defences hold they will have the road open, but if not…

The figure of Fëanor looms large over the team AC Beleriand – and he hates to lose. Together with Eöl and the new finds Angrod and Aegnor they have one of the most devastating attacks this tournament has – and as their iron-defence has only gotten tougher this year with the adding of one Balrog it seems they are one of the clearest candidates to pick the whole trophy. The only problem being no stranger to Fëanor himself: that hybris is followed by nemesis.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: AC Beleriand
Fight closest for the second spot: Inter Beleriand, Gondolin
More probably will not qualify: Dwarves United

Scorers: All four AC Beleriand attacking players (Aegnor has been devastating in the friendlies, Fëanor is always a safe bet); Maedhros, Beren, Tuor, Maeglin…
Defenders & Keepers: Celebrimbor leads the toughest defence and can score himself, Lúthien or Fingolfin for the more adventurous pickers. Galadriel for goal, Turgon has been very good at the goal this season as well and Marach stands behind one of the toughest defences.



GROUP C
Doriath
Hithlum
Shire-Bree United
Real Valinor

Some might say that Shire-Bree United plays in a different – or wrong – league here. And there are reasons for that statement. But it must be admitted that the oddballs from the newer ages have shown their qualities the previous years, and with Gandalf on board one can not just wipe them off from one’s considerations. That said, to qualify they must leave two of three other teams: Real Valinor, Hithlum and Doriath, behind them – and that would be a feat indeed.

With Elwë back and leading the team along his wife Melian Doriath is a team one needs to take seriously. That said, their friendlies weren’t very convincing and not having either Beren or Lúthien in the scoringboard is a big loss which even Elwë probably won’t compensate.

Túrin may be used to losing in real life but he does hate it from the bottom of his heart. Last year was a disaster for Hithlum and this time they have bet everything for this one run… If Morgoth had his way they would fail epicly and the story of that one remarkable family would end in bankrupcy, but happily for the house of Hador Angband is not playing in this group. So it is up to Túrin and his best (and only?) friend Beleg – with the support of his dad, and uncle, Hador himself and all the other family – to score their way far in the tournament. There is no real estate that hasn’t been mortgaged to pay for this year’s salaries.

The AKM does think that Real Valinor is definitively weaker side they were last year with the selling of Arien (forced by Manwë?) and Caranthir. Then again their friendlies were just convincing: drawing with FC Valinor (to whom they lost twice last year) and beating Valimar cleanly 3-1. There should be no question that Real is a tough team again this year; and both Oromë and Nahar are Quality – and bring in some team-spirit indeed.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: Real Valinor, Hithlum
Will not qualify: Doriath, Shire-Bree United

Scorers: Gandalf seems to be getting into shpe for the first time, anyone from the house of Hador’s attack – or Miriel / Nerdanel. Oromë is a bit more risky but possibly rewarding choice like Khamûl or Mablung are.
Defenders & Keepers: With teams like Hithlum and Real Valinor in the group it is hard to suggest any defenders, but maybe Tulkas for goal and Tilion for a defender (could as well score) – if you feel daring then pick Halbarad ot Shadowfax from the Shire-Bree. Hithlum defence is a no-no.



GROUP D
Barad-Dur
Gondor
Isengard
FC Valinor

Now there is no stopping FC Valinor in this group and it is easy to see brothers Celegorm and Curufin annoyed with the quality of the teams they are thrown against in the group phase – even if there are some individual players that will challnge even them for real. It is just that there is not quality enough in any of the other teams to seriously challenge FC Valinor’s peak position.

Isengard has taken two narrow 1-2 losses from Rohan and Wilderland in the friendlies. From last year they have changed the basically immobile Caradhras into very-very slow Beechbone – which is a kind of step forwards one could say – and replaced Freca with a Nazgûl in the midfield. So even if Saruman has been cutting costs he has managed to build a stronger-looking team. The problem just is that it might not be enough.

Last year Gondor won the lousiest group with some ease and was dropped with penalties to Shire-Bree. For this year they have lost two quality-players Hyermendacil and Falastur and gotten in exchange a promising Meneldil and a more or less mediocre Galadil. In the friendlies they have taken two expected results (beating Mordor 3-1 and drawing 2-2 with Minas Tirith) but there is little to tell to one’s grandchildren about those matches.

Sauron is clearly trying to have an effect without getting his hands dirty – or using too much money from his pockets. Last year’s pathetic defence is fired and now there are two wizards and two Fellbeasts defending the goal in front of the new goalkeeper Grishnâkh (?). The friendlies weren’t impressive, but Sauron himself can perform miracles as we all know.

Which leaves FC Valinor. Changing Nahar and Penlod from defence into Thorondor and Eönwe weighs slightly on the stronger side. Giving up Lórien and Idril on the midfield for Elemmirë and Indis is clearly a weakening – so to sum up, the team should be more or less on even ground – but the AKM thinks they have weakened in total. Drawing with The Sea and Real are not good signs for them even if most teams should jubilate such results as victories of the century.

The AKM prediction and Phantasy-player hints

Will qualify: FC Valinor
Fight for the second spot: Barad-Dûr, Gondor
More probably will not qualify: Isengard

Scorers:The brothers and Yavanna are the obvious choices here, and Sauron likewise; on the second level try Eldacar or Saruman, or maybe Meneldil to be original.
Defenders & Keepers: Huan is the obvious pick but also Grishnâkh has been pretty good; any FC Valinor defenders are good picks, Eönwe might be even worth the star that gets used with him.