[Nogrod]

Here is the AKMs first analysis on groups C and E which the AKM will be watching really close this year according to the new pact made between the big media-houses. But don't you worry: the AKM will not forget the other groups either. It is just that groups C and E will be our main focus this season.

So without further ado...


Group C, Doriath

Doriath
2012: budget 84 million, qualified to 1st round / earned 80mil. (-4)
2013 budget 70 million (-14): slightly weaker offence.

Hithlum
2012: budget 86 million, left in the group phase / earned 60 mil. (-26)
2013 budget 101 million (+15): clearly stronger and more balanced.

Real Valinor
2012: budget 104 million, Champions / earned 140 mil. (+36)
2013 budget 101 million (-3): two huge losses (1xDF & 1xFW).

Shire-Bree United
2012: budget 72 million, made it to the quarterfinals / earned 95 mil. (+23)
2013 budget 68 million (-4): defence slightly better, offence lost.


Last year’s champions, Real Valinor, meets a bunch or weaker sides? It would be quite bold to predict the last season’s winners to be left in the group-phase, but to think they would win it left-handedly would be as stupid – and the AKM thinks they have to perform pretty solidly to advance in the first place (which the AKM thinks they will do though).

Whichever way one looks at different groups, this is one of the tough ones and surviving it will be an achievement in it’s own right.


Hithlum – Hithlum’s last season was a big disappointment. Their group was by consent of many commentators the second toughest of all and with all the teams drawing their games they were left to the group stage with the number of goals scored – something that should never happen to a team where Túrin plays.

But many commentators also agreed that Túrin didn’t have the support he’d need – even if his father and Hador Lórindol himself, both remarkable players, were there behind him. He needed one man… well, an elf to help him – and now he’s back! With Beleg Cuthalion (2+3 / 4 games in Doriath last season) by his side once more there might be no easy way, well no way, to stop Túrin Turambar this season.

Hithlum has also toughened their downstairs by replacing in many ways valiant escorts Grithnir and Gethron by a bit tougher sons of Hador, lord Galdor the Tall (Túrin’s grandpa) and his brother Gundor. And to top that, they have also recruited a Balrog in their defence.

In an interesting move, Hithlum has signed Galdor’s son Huor – who passed the last season – to the goal. And with that one can see that team Hithlum is coming more and more a family affair. And with a family like that one can only predict problems for those opposing it.

And they are investing it big time this year! It’s a kind of flourish or perish -game for them now. That sounds like their family as well.

The AKM prediction: will qualify


Real Valinor – It is a total mystery why Real Valinor would give up Arien. It was not only that she was the clutch-player of the team, it’s biting teeth – and one of the best forwards in the whole Arda to begin with – but also that she formed a beautifully working trio with Miriel and Nerdanel. Replacing Arien (6+1 in six games last year) with Oromë (0+1 in three) doesn’t sound like a good deal whatever way you look at it, even if you liked Oromë very much.

But they also let Caranthir go away. On top of the intelligence and skilfulness of Rumil, Nienna and Tilion, Caranthir brought backbone and strength (and brutality to scare the opponents) to the defence. Now replacing him and Rumil with Ingwë’s son Ingwion and Nahar from FC Valinor could be seen as bringing forth some toughness, but it is clear the two won’t replace Caranthir as a threat to the offensive players of the opposing team.

That said, Real Valinor looks still a quality team and one that should qualify from group C. But it would be a miracle should they find themselves in the final this year. So did someone just cash in or what happened? They weren’t lacking in cash and their deals look like bad ones.

The AKM prediction: qualifies more probably than not


Doriath – Now Doriath could be said to be the real black horse of the group. It is a team of quality and they could have gone further in the tournament last season hadn’t they met a team as strong as Eriador on the first round of the play-offs. On the group-stage they only lost to Anfaughlith just so, draw with the mighty AC Beleriand and beat Nargothrond. That is a remarkable statistic.

But… and then there is the “but”. From last year they have lost two key players Beleg (2+3 / 4 games) and Lúthien (1+1) from their midfield. Now getting Elwë Singollo to play with his wife Melian sure is a boost to the moral of the team – and signing Elwing from the Havens to the defence is a strengthening move – but somehow it feels it just doesn’t do the trick – especially in a group as tough as this one.

In a way Doriath looks more solid than last year but it just lacks certain flare. Can Thingol fill in for both Beleg and Lúthien? Are their defences solid enough to take on both Hithlum and Real Valinor? They have to beat at least one of the two to qualify…

The AKM prediction: has a chance to qualify if plays superbly


Shire-Bree United – Many were surprised with how far the Shire-Bree went last year, but then again the teams they faced were total jokes (The Downer), were just playing much poorer most anticipated (Angband and T-I-G) or got through because of a lousy group (Gondor). AC Beleriand nailed them 3-0 and that kind of tells everything about their quality last season.

Well, not all. There was actually a reason for them to succeed as far as they did, and it was that they were scoring heavily the last year – until they met with a quality defence aka. AC Beleriand who just shut them out. But with The Barrow-Wight, Strider and especially Tom Bombadill now gone they have suddenly lost 75% of their goals – and at the same time the only weapon they had last year.

Now they have improved their defence considerably with Fellbeast and a Nazgul from Mordor and Shadowfax – who came with Gandalf, who is in turn trying to take care of the scoring with the only scorer from the last season remaining, Khamûl.

So they have a better defence this time around – but they are going to need it as this year they’re facing offensive powers gazillion times better they met last year in the group phase. Their midfield is mostly crap (Butterbur & Ferny!), but can they score to stay on with the games? Many have waited for Gandalf’s magic to materialize on the football field in vain for years – will it emerge from somewhere this year? Probably not.

The AKM prediction: most likely stays in the group phase




Group E / Erebor


Erebor
2012: budget 103 million, 4th place / earned 115 mil. (+12)
2013 budget 94 million (-9): two big losses (1xDF & 1xFW).

Eriador
2012: budget 99 million, 2nd place / earned 130 mil. (+31)
2013: budget 103 million (+4): defence changed - a questionmark, offence slightly weaker.

Misty Mountains
2012: budget 62 million, left in the group phase / earned 60 mil. (-2)
2013 budget 76 million (+14): stronger defence.

Wilderland
2012: budget 85 million, left in the group phase / earned 60 mil. (-25)
2013 budget 75 million (-10): weaker MF, stronger DF & FW.


Two semifinalists from the last season take up two teams that were left into the group-phase. So with the overwhelming odds the two great teams fly forwards leaving the other two once again to struggle? Well, not so fast here either. The history or the budgets don’t predict success that well and bad drafts can change things.

Especially Wilderland has a chance to beat teams with superior budgets – if Scatha and Thranduil find a common tune…


Eriador – Last year’s silver medalists have spent 4 million more to their team this year but it is an open question whether they are a better team now. And the questionmarks (two questions basically) are clear.

First: changing the Witch King (4+1 / 6 games last season) for Isildur (0+2 / 3 games) might be a righteous move to build up moral integrity, but is it a good deal gamewise? They did lose a third of their goals with the Witch King anyway. Now Glorfindel is a quality forward and Arveleg proved his worth the last season – and the surprise signing NogWight (2+0 / 3 games – as a NogWolf) might prove valuable or then not – but the question remains, can they fill the void the Witch King leaves?

Secondly: they say “don’t change a winning team”. Now what was the key to their succes the last year was that they didn’t let the other teams to score. Most of the glory here surely goes to Elrond keeping the goal safe. But surely the defence had their part in it – and now it has been turned around. Malbeth the Seer has been sold away, Araphant has been moved to the middlefield, and defending midfielder Valandil has been sold as well. What they got in their place is Arwen (former MF) and Aragorn (former FW, as Strider) in defence with hefty 10 million deals each – now one might make a question about nepotism. Well the fans should pray they can indeed defend…

Will Eriador play for the Cup this year? They have it what it takes to win a lot of tough adversaries – if their downstairs work as well as it did the previous years and Elrond’s magic endures. But will they reach the finals – and turn their silver into gold? Probably not.

The AKM prediction: qualifies


Erebor – Erebor’s success last year was a huge surprise for many. But they did have a solid team – and Beorn broke through as one of the top goalkeepers of the game in Arda. With their success and prize-money one would have thought they would have strengthened their team but it seems they are spending 9 million less this year albeit the money they gathered from the last year. So are they even willing to succeed this year? Are the Dwarves and Mr. Moneybags just piling the money into a treasury or what is it?

Well, what else could be gathered from the fact that they gave away their leading defender Gwaihir (10) and one of the leading scorers Thranduil (13) and replaced them with Thorin (5) and the newcomer Brand (3)? Beorn only got a 2 million raise into his salary but for example Bard plays with the same 8 million contract he played the last year (one could imagine both could have had quite easily better deals from other teams).

If the owners are cynically counting that their team is going to qualify with the lesser budget so as to make nice returns one would hope the team would fail miserably – but it is a good team still and one would hope all the best for the great players in the team.

The AKM prediction: a good chance to qualify


Wilderland – Wilderland is one of those interesting teams you never know what they are capable of. Last year they had quite a strong team on paper but failed to qualify. For this season they have changed quite a lot (almost half of the team has changed) and they have used 10 million less into their team… but once again it looks like they have their chances to qualify, at least on paper.

They have lost three 15 million players up front: Elwë and Galadriel from the midfield and Oromë from the attack. But they still have Scatha and they have somehow acquired Thranduil from Erebor (2+3 / 6 games) to replace the two elves – and a Nazgul from Mordor to play the MF number 10-place. So suddenly their much less costly offence starts to look quite a threat with a formidable pairing of Scatha and Thranduil backed by a Nazgul.

Also on defence they have made a positive-looking change getting rid of Beechbone and replacing him with Radagast.

So Wilderland is making a better-looking team with less money, but will it be enough? A lot depends on how Scatha is playing (last year was a slight disappointment) and will Thranduil deliver in his new environment.

The AKM prediction: could qualify indeed (stress on the word “could”)


Misty Mountains – The Misty Mountains didn’t exactly impress one the last season. Durin’s Bane is a quality striker and Azog & Narvi are not bad players, but they failed to deliver as a team last year. They jut weren’t good enough.

This time around it might be a bit different though as they are spending a little bit more – and into the area that will make the opposition’s game just that inch harder… so it might even pay off. Kicking the stupid trolls Tom and Bert out from their defence and replacing them with none less than Gwaihir the lord of the eagles and Caradhras itself could be called a serious improvement.

They gave also changed their goalkeeper from the Great Goblin (now MF) to the Chief Wolf (former DF). Only time will tell whether that is a good or a bad move. But overall, even if they would not be the top scoring team of the Arda Cup 13, it will be harder to score against them this year. And let’s not forget that both Eriador and Erebor have given away their best scorers…

But will that be enough to qualify against last season’s 2nd, 4th andWilderland?

The AKM prediction: will probably not qualify



More pre-season commentary and even some results fro the friendlies to come on the AKM. Stay tuned!