[A Little Green]

As usual, not quoting everything as that would be insane. My comments in italics

DAY 1

Frustration with banter

Pom, McCaber, and Morsul get points for the effort of trying to post substance; hates Day 1s because they are the easiest for a wolf to hide in; says she doesn't object to banter in general but that it's a problem if it gets out of hand

Originally Posted by Brinn

So far I'm feeling good about Rikae. She seems the most genuine at least. Pom seems okay as well, for now.

I don't like Copper's vote because Boro has hardly said anything and I don't know how she can get a gut feeling about him based on those posts. I'd hold off on voting her toDay though, because I haven't played with Copper before and don't know her playing style.

Morsul votes Kath based on some weak cobbler suspicions. But wouldn't it be better to vote for a suspected wizard? But I'll let it pass, since in his defense there is so little to go on right now.

I don't like all of Sally's bantering, but then again it is Sally.

My vote toDay will be:

++Nerwen

While I don't feel terribly confident in my vote, she has displayed the most suspicious behavior to me so far. By suspicious, I refer to excessive bantering combined with picking up on comments that she could later use as reasons for an easy lynch (like Morsul's comment on Kath). I realize it's weak reasoning, but there's really not much else to go on and I do generally tend to be pretty wary about Nerwen anyway.

Not overly fond of this vote, but it was early on in the Day and quite little had happened, so I'm willing to give it a pass. Also, this makes me doubt that both Rikae and Brinn are wolves, as I don't think an otherwise careful Brinnard would cheerfully point to two of her three fellows as innocentish in a Day 1 post.

DAY 2

Comments on Nerwen's speculation of why Pom panicked after her vote; thinks the likeliest scenario is

Originally Posted by Nerwen

[4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)

Originally Posted by Brinn

As for the Pom voters...

There were already multiple bandwagons against other players and it was only the first Day in a large village, so while I won't completely rule it out, I just don't find wolf-on-wolf votes all that likely. If there was, it'd more probable for it to be one of the earlier two votes. Sally and Shasta would have to be very bold to throw a packmate under the bus like that so early in the game.

Kind of obvious but makes sense.

Writes a list; I'm quoting it in full regardless of the length, sorry for that, but it seemed like the best choice.

Nerwen: No vote (does she ever vote on Day 1?) YesterDay she fired back at Gil for his vote against her. While it was defensive, I think her reasoning behind it is justified. ToDay, I do like her contribution so far.

Morsul: Voted for Kath. His vote was early when there was little substance, so I won't hold it against him. When coming to conclusions, I find his logic rather odd, but I think it's really just his playing style which tells us nothing of his role.

Sally: Voted for Pom. Most of her posts are banter, which isn't helpful. But her late vote for Pom makes me inclined to think she's innocent.

McCaber: Voted for Copper. His vote actually didn't stand out as very suspicious to me. But I can see why some might be suspicious because he could've been seen as a baddie trying to get away with an easy vote against someone who was already gathering some attention for her poor reasoning behind her vote. Plus, I agree he voted a bit premature. Due to that statement Pom made after his vote, I think I'm leaning toward him being more innocent than not.

Gil: Voted for Nerwen. Okay, his vote had poor reasoning behind it and I can understand why others find it and his defensive behavior following suspicious. But like Morsul, his playing style does have a habit of looking suspicious regardless of his role.

Inzil: Voted for Pom. His vote might've been the safest, were he a baddie. But again, I think it less likely that there were wolf-on-wolf votes at this stage. And anyway, his behavior doesn't strike me as suspicious.

Nogrod: Voted for McCaber. His careful and non-committed suspicion of Pom is worrying. Based on his posts, it seemed to make more sense that he would vote for her. But then he votes for McCaber while at the same time agreeing that Pom was a good lynch choice. The only thing is that if he did believe the lynch had already been decided, I think it would be safer for a baddie to vote for a packmate. Unless an evil Nogrod truly thought another player would swoop in and vote McCaber and he could save Pom. While that was a possibility, Bane was the only non-voter around at the time, it looked like he was planning to vote Pom, which would've sealed the deal...all the more reason it'd be safer for a baddie to vote a packmate at that point. I'm not sure about Nogrod, but he's definitely one to watch.

Rikae: Voted for McCaber. Her reasoning behind her vote looks genuine to me. From her posts, I like that her opinions are formed by her own impressions. Meaning that she thinks for herself and her thoughts aren't at all influenced by others' opinions, which makes me feel good about her right now.

Volo: Voted for Nerwen. He says he's unsure about Nerwen and that McCaber is on the "naughty side," then later decides Nerwen's most suspicious (over McCaber and Pom) without a reason to explain why. While he might have tied her, it really didn't look like anyone else would vote her at this point. This could be a strategy for a baddie to not make a throwaway vote, but at the same time, avoid participating in a lynch that could be likely to occur. A bit suspicious to me.

Boromir: Voted for Copper. His thought process leading up to his vote seems quite reasonable to me. So far, I don't see any reason to suspect him.

Copper: Voted for Boromir. Would Pom vote for a fellow mate? It's always possible, but I do doubt it. So she's looking more likely to be innocent to me.

Oz: Voted for McCaber. He suspects Gil then votes McCaber out of nowhere (putting him in the lead). Suspicious.

Loslote: Voted for Pom. I don't see anything suspicious in her posts and her vote makes her look even less suspicious. I'm leaning towards probably innocent.

Bane: No vote. He was around less than ten minutes until deadline, then disappeared. Any reason why? His suspicion of Pom could speak in his favor, but then not actually following through with a vote does not. I'd like to hear from him.

Greenie: Voted for McCaber. I think she's the only McCaber voter who had some reservations about him from an earlier post (before his vote). Based on her reasoning and interactions with McCaber, her vote does look like an honest one to me. So far, I'm thinking she looks more on the innocent side.

Kath: No vote. Only posted banter. Some might try to read into it, but I don't think there's really anything to read into. But the question is...where did she go?

Shasta: Voted for Pom. He hardly posted, but his vote which put our baddie in the lead makes it seem unlikely that he isn't innocent.

What struck me was that she is being extremely careful, almost too diplomatic; there is a but in almost every paragraph. Might just be undecided ordo (I can symphatize with that!) but somehow the tone is measured rather than confused.

Says defensiveness isn't necessarily suspicious; forgot the cobbler when doing her list, agrees with the suggestion that Nog might be one.

Another list:

Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Feeling Okay About
McCaber
Inzil
Loslote

Not Sure
Nerwen
Morsul
Gil
Boromir
Kath

Will Keep an Eye On
Nogrod
Bane

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

This makes me feel better; not as noncommittal as the previous list.

Looks like we won't be hearing anymore from Oz. Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. Morsul does have some posts that look off, but then again it's not necessarily off behavior for Morsul. Morsul can make an easy vote for a baddie, but I can just as easily see an innocent being suspicious of him. Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.

Again a lot of buts here.

Nog looks better; explains her change of opinion about Nerwen:

I certainly don't trust Nerwen, though at this point I no longer find her all that suspicious. Which is why I placed her in my "Not Sure" category.

Votes for Volo; still wary of Oz, but wants to hear more from him


DAY 3

Speculates about the Volo kill, doesn't really add anything new

I was thinking in particular of the most innocent-looking voters (Sally and Shasta), who helped decide the lynch. If one was evil and they Night killed the other, the village might later wonder why the remaining one is still alive. It was just a thought; I'm not sure if that scenario would be likely.

I already speculated about this before; something rubs me the wrong way here, though at the same time it's a sensible point to make. Gah.

If it were misdirection, it could potentially mean that things are the opposite of what they would be if the wizards did kill Volo thinking he was the seer. Of course, in the case that their purpose was to create general confusion, none of this could mean anything. And if the purpose of Volo's death was to distract us, it's so far working because we've discussed little besides his death. So maybe it's time to start looking back at yesterDay.

This seems a bit weird - speculating long about Volo's death, then saying it might be wiser to talk about something else.

Wonders whether Morsul and Oz weren't both innocent since she doesn't find Morsul all that suspicious

Thinks Morsul's ”innocent Cab” -comment is likely hypothetical and if it really is, would not be surprised to find a Wizer among those who pursued it; thinks Morsul's point against Lottie was indeed flimsy but not necessarily Wizard-like

If I recall correctly, Rikae has pulled this whole self-vote thing before. I'm under the impression that this is most likely typical frustrated ordo Rikae behavior. I have trouble believing a Rikae-wolf would give up so quickly, especially considering the baddies aren't doing so well right now.

If I'm correct, then that makes me concerned about Nerwen who was very quick to jump on Rikae's so-called confession (which sounded more like sarcasm to me).

I agree with this, but it tells little about Brinn's alignment as long as we don't know Rikae's. I'd say that if Rikae is evil then Brinn looks bad too, but Rikae's innocence wouldn't tell us anything about Brinn. If that makes sense. Then again, that Day 1 post makes me think it unlikely that they are fellows, so I don't know what to think. Helpful, I know.


CONCLUSIONS?

What stood out to me was that Brinn is playing really careful. It could go either way - a Wizard playing it safe by being diplomatic and leaving both ends open, so to speak, or an innocent who sees something for and against each argument and thus has a hard time being of any opinion. Oh my. That latter option sounds like what I'm doing in this particular post, actually! Anyhow, I'm not sure this analysis helped me form an opinion on Brinn's alignment, but at least I have an idea what she's said and done, which can be counted as progress.

Sorry. Not my shrewdest day toDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro, Brinn, Nerwen, and Nog