The final matchday of the 2012 Arda Cup is upon us, two games featuring the best teams in Arda (bar one, perhaps). Due to the intense preparations made by the Tar-Eldar Network Television and ArdaCup.com for its coverage of the bronze medal and championship ties, today's Stats Report article shall be shorter, but we shall go directly to the meat of the matter, and leave the trivia for the others to handle.
(For statistical comparison, FC Valinor has a +6.28 adjusted goal difference and +1.6 true goal difference per game, the first in both categories, perhaps one of the best teams ever not to make it to the final four.)
Bronze Medal Match:
AC Beleriand vs Erebor
Erebor
+4.28 adjusted goal difference [4th]
+0.83 true goal difference/game
Offence:
1.83 goals/game
16.83 shots/game (10.87% goal conversion rate)
6.67 shots on target/game
Defence:
1.00 goals allowed/game
14.17 shots allowed/game
5.67 shots on target allowed/game (82.35% save rate)
Erebor has the most inefficient offence of the semifinalists, which, combined with their midfield disadvantage (and hence losing the possession battle), has been their downfall against Eriador, and it will be bad news against AC Beleriand's shot-stingy defence and possession-controlling diamond midfield. The onus will then be on Erebor's defence to prevent AC Beleriand's front line from doing what they will (despite the fact that they have conceded two goals to their last two opponents). The good news is that Beorn is the third-best goalkeeper in the tournament, having cemented his reputation as a top-tier shot-stopper against FC Valinor. Replicating Tulkas's feat in the semifinals against AC Beleriand will help Beorn's team get a fighting chance against Fëanor's squad.
AC Beleriand
+4.61 adjusted goal difference [3rd]
+1.50 true goal difference/game
Offence:
2.50 goals/game
16.50 shots/game (15.15% goal conversion rate)
7.17 shots on target/game
Defence:
1.00 goals allowed/game
11.00 shots allowed/game
3.50 shots on target allowed/game (71.43% save rate)
AC Beleriand is statistically better in almost all areas than their Lonely Mountain foes. They feature an attacking line-up, with main threat Fëanor, playmaker Eöl, Beren making runs from the midfield, and Fingolfin attacking from deep accounting for almost all of their goals. The Rochallor-Imlach partnership remains the best centre back tandem, conceding only 11 shots per game and stopping strong centre-forwards Glaurung and Gothmog along the way. They were, however, exposed against the free-flowing offences of Doriath and Real Valinor. If Thranduil and company were to have a chance against AC Beleriand, they would not only have to rely on Beorn making the stops, but also keep their front three (and Bard) probing the Beleriandic back line with defence-splitting passes.
PREDICTION:
AC Beleriand 2:0 Erebor
* * * * *
Championship Match:
Eriador vs Real Valinor
Eriador
+4.67 adjusted goal difference [2nd]
+1.17 true goal difference/game
Offence:
2.00 goals/game
14.33 shots/game (13.95% goal conversion rate)
6.00 shots on target/game
Defence:
0.83 goals allowed/game
14.50 shots allowed/game
5.50 shots on target allowed/game (84.85% save rate)
Eriador has a better defence and offence (in numbers and efficiency) than Real Valinor, but they had an arguably easier path (with only Erebor, and, perhaps, Gondolin, as real threats). They have more midfielders (with better attacking stats) which would translate to control of the possession, unless Tilion or Nerdanel offsets that disparity in numbers by helping their midfield (as Tilion has done in their semifinal game against AC Beleriand). Elrond has regained his position from last year as the best goalkeeper in the game during their tie with Erebor, and Glorfindel, the Witch-king, and Arveleg spearhead a very efficient offence (with the second-best goals scored per game in the least shots).
Real Valinor
+3.28 adjusted goal difference [5th]
+0.67 true goal difference/game
Offence:
1.83 goals/game
15.00 shots/game (12.22% goal conversion)
5.83 shots on target/game
Defence:
1.17 goals allowed/game
13.00 shots allowed/game
5.00 shots on target allowed/game (76.67% save rate)
After a red-hot Arien and joint assists leader Míriel, the scoring numbers drop off drastically. Coming into the semifinals, Tulkas was statistically the worst goalkeeper among the four, but he saved six shots (for a 75% save rate) against Fëanor's AC Beleriand, not to mention getting clean sheets against Rohan and The Sea along the way. Their free-flowing offence, tempered by the years their front line has spent together, has ripped apart AC Beleriand's previously nigh-impervious back line, and they need to be on that form if they were to duplicate that feat against a defence almost as unyielding in Eriador, anchored by the premier shot-stopper of two straight tournaments.
PREDICTION:
Eriador 2:1 Real Valinor