[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Got your captain changed, Legate. Not sure why it was switched...

Thank'ee. Happens, I guess.

Heh- yes, that happens. Armenelos had the group-of-death misfortune, Wilderland was an upset, but Imladris was favored to beat out Misty and Isengard, and Valimar was in the worst points position in their group going into the final round.

I thought Isengard had about 50-50 chance and I was ready to switch the players from there if need be, but I would never have believed Armenelos and Wilderland to fall. They were certainly in the better half of their groups. Come on: Anduin was a loser to start with, Erebor in my opinion mediocre at best, whereas Wilderland had some big stars in. (And that all said already with the knowledge that the "lesser race" had somehow miraculously managed to secure its place in the continuation. Otherwise I would have belived Wilderland to be THE team in the group.) In Armenelos' group, true, these Valinors both seem to be rather overpowered, but I had been thinking Armenelos had, after all, rather decent chances. Misty Mountains and Valimar were nothing special, but by simple statistics, I would not have believed neither of these five teams would qualify... and lo, what happened. But I guess everyone has a great deal to learn (Here I thought that I was making my bunch rather, hmm, varied when it came to the amount of teams I have drawn from. Obviously not at all.)

People just have to decide how risky they want to play. Go for big reward or safety? There were five teams already guaranteed to advance after round 2, and if one chooses to include only one player from those teams then there's definitely the risk of eliminated players. Particularly with the full allowed three players from Isengard which most people (including you) didn't pick to advance.

In fact, I did neither. I went for safety with my picks on who would win and advance etc., but only so that I won't end up totally off when my team, which was (and still is, even in this new shape) rather a "fan team", lost. Which is exactly what happened, in fact. I only thought some could have remained there. I am not picking players based on whom I believe to win, I pick players I like and then want to see how they do. I could make a team full of some Celegorms and Feanors or whatnot, but I won't find any amusement in that. I went a bit further in that direction in my "million dollar team", though apparently still too little.

Apparently you didn't trust your pre-tourney picks enough.

I think the problem is exactly that I did. I never changed a single person in my team until now when nine of eleven turned to be, well, useless. My belief in which teams would win had nothing to do with my choice of players- like I said, I have picked my team the way I had liked it and the picks on who is going to win the way I believed it would turn out, so those are the "real game".

Speaking of that, predictions... (boldened winners, as usual)

Angband vs Minas Tirith

Eriador vs Doriath

Erebor vs Imladris

FC Valinor vs The Havens

The Sea vs Real Valinor

Rohan vs Dwarves United

AC Beleriand vs Gondolin

Gondor vs Shire-Bree United