[Nogrod]

The play-off games rarely turn out the walk-in-the-park sessions for the pre-tournament favourites the media always loves to rise to the fore. Play-offs are an entirely different world. That said, it is true as well that some games look rather clear from the start while others offer only steps into the darkness where even the best analyst has little to offer in way of telling which team will triumph.

This year clearly makes no exception. Some of the games look like they are predeterminend already before the referee has whistled the game to start while some others just raise the predictor’s hair with frustration. It’s hard to see fex. Minas Tirith having any chances whatsoever against Angband , but with games like The Sea vs. Real Valinor or even AC Beleriand vs. Gondolin one feels that flipping a coin might be as productive a way to make one’s bet as any “deep analysis”. The AKM will anyway offer it’s readers something to lean on making their bets for the outcomes of the matches.

Every game analysis begins with a stats-section which is explained underneath. Now the special thing this time is, that we are also providing you with the combined stats from all the seven games the teams have played (3 group stage games + 4 friendlies) just to give you more perspective. Of course an intelligent reader remembers that the friendlies aren’t always good measures to a team’s real performance when they play it with full steam, but that accounted for, they might give you some new insights. At least that is what the AKM hopes to provide its readers.

Reading instructions to the “stats-section” are as follows:

A1 Angband 7-5 1-2-0
33,3% 21 (51) – 18 (47) 72,2%
vs. The Downer 3-1
vs. Shire-Bree Utd. 2-2
vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth 2-2

vs. Doriath 1-1
vs. Anfaughlith 1-1
vs. Valimar 0-0
vs. Inter Beleriand 1-0
r.10 10-7 2-5-0
27,7% 36 (93) – 32 (83) 78,1%

Broken into pieces it has in it the folowing facts...

A1 Angband 7-5 1-2-0
33,3% 21 (51) – 18 (47) 72,2%

1st line:
A1 Angband = team #1 from group A, Angband
7-5 = goals made vs. goals allowed from the group stage
1-2-0 = wins – draws – losses form the group stage

2nd line:
33,3% = scoring percentage from shots on goal at the group stage
21(51) = total shots on goal (all shots made) at the group stage
18(47) = total shots allowed on target (total shots allowed) at the group stage
72,2% = goalkeeper’s saving percentage aka. goals allowed / shots on target allowed.

vs. The Downer 3-1
vs. Shire-Bree Utd. 2-2
vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth 2-2

lines 3-5:
The games played in the group stage: the first number is the goals scored by the team in question (here Angband), the latter the team named = vs. The Downer 3-1, means Angband won The Downer with three goals to one.

vs. Doriath 1-1
vs. Anfaughlith 1-1
vs. Valimar 0-0
vs. Inter Beleriand 1-0

lines 6-9:
The games played during the friendlies: the first number is the goals scored by the team in question (here Angband), the latter the team named = vs. Inter Beleriand 1-0, means Angband won Inter Beleriand with one goal to nil.

r.10 10-7 2-5-0
27,7% 36 (93) – 32 (83) 78,1%

10th line
r.10 = The AKM’s ranking of the team after the friendlies
10-7 = goals made vs. goals allowed in all seven games they have played
2-5-0 = wins – draws – losses from all seven games they have played

11th line:
Same as the 2nd line except that it has all seven games counted: scoring percentage from shots on goal, shots on goal (shots overall) – shots allowed on target (overall shots allowed), goalie’s saving percentage.


The stats that have the friendlies involved are italicized.
The stats the AKM think are the most important are bolded.




GAME 1

A1 Angband 7-5 1-2-0
33,3% 21 (51) – 18 (47) 72,2%
vs. The Downer 3-1
vs. Shire-Bree Utd. 2-2
vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth 2-2

vs. Doriath 1-1
vs. Anfaughlith 1-1
vs. Valimar 0-0
vs. Inter Beleriand 1-0
r.10 10-7 2-5-0
27,7% 36 (93) – 32 (83) 78,1%


H2 Minas Tirith 6-6 0-3-0
35,3% 17 (41) – 20 (48) 70%
vs. Barad Dûr 2-2
vs. Mordor 2-2
vs. Gondor 2-2

vs. Mordor 1-1
vs. Armenelos 1-2
vs. Rohan 1-1
vs. Isengard 1-2
r.29 10-12 0-5-2
29,4% 34 (90) – 41 (94) 70,7%

It would be a surprise if there would not be a surprise-qualifier on the first round of the play-offs. But the AKM doesn’t think that surprising team is Minas Tirith. That said, if one takes look at the numbers, they are surprisingly even. With a noteworthy exception: Angband hasn’t lost a single game (friendlies and group-stage combined) whereas Minas Tirith hasn’t yet won a single match.

Another thing worthy of paying attention to is the quality of the opponents they have faced thus far: it is more or less obvious Angband has in general played tougher matches. One should especially look at the stats of “shots allowed” during the group stage: the numbers as such are more or less even, but Angband has played against three very offensive minded and cabable (not counting The Downer to that latter class though) teams and has still managed to beat Minas Tirith’s numbers.

Third remarkable difference between the teams is that Angband has Ancalagon who can single-handedly win games to his team: after some lazy friendlies (only two goals in four matches) the Old Black has gotten into mood for scoring and has finished five goals in three matches!

The only reservations to the AKM otherwise quite clear verdict on the game are as follows:

1) Carcaroth hasn’t been that reliable. Everyone knows he’s a bit moody but a saving percentage around 70% just is not enough for a team who wishes to go far in the tournament – unless they are a top-scoring team just out-scoring their opponents, which Angband is not.
2) Minas Tirith may lack an Ancalagon from their attack, but they have still scored two goals in every group-game and the scoring responsibility is well spread over the team: so if one player doesn’t have a good day another may fill in.
3) Some people have been asking after Morgoth’s performance: why is he so invisible? If Ancalagon has a bad day and Morgoth is not able or willing to change gear could Angband be in trouble even against a team like Minas Tirith?

The AKM prediction:
Angband hasn’t lost a single game in the tournament and Minas Tirith isn’t going to be The Team to force them into defeat the first time. Minas Tirith may score one if they get their act together, but unless Angband has some real attitude-problems they’ll score two (if MT doesn’t seem to score Angband may be happy with one goal).

Angband wins 1-0 / 2-1 / 2-0


GAME 2

B1 Eriador 7-3 3-0-0
38,9% 18 (41) – 16 (37) 81,3%
vs. Arnor 2-1
vs. Gondolin 3-1
vs. Inter Beleriand 2-1

vs. Isengard 1-0
vs. Imladris 1-0
vs. Erebor 0-1
vs. Shire-Bree Utd. 3-1
r.8 12-5 6-0-1
33,3% 36 (83) – 31 (78) 83,9%

G2 Doriath 6-6 1-1-1
40% 15 (37) – 21 (53) 71,4%
vs. AC Beleriand 2-2
vs. Anfaughlith 0-1
vs. Nargothrond 4-3

vs. Angband 1-1
vs. Gondolin 2-3
vs. Inter Beleriand 3-2
vs. Anfaughlith 0-0
r.17 12-12 2-3-2
31,6% 38 (90) – 39 (97) 69,2%

This is another game where the AKM doesn’t look for a surprise either but presumes that Eriador will hold it’s ground and qualify for the next round. With the same breath the AKM will acknowledge that the game will not be an easy one for Eriador as the kind of surprise-team Doriath will challenge them seriously: forcing AC Beleriand into a draw in the group stage is a warning sign for Eriador not to take Doriath for granted.

The number one problem for Doriath will be Eriador’s defence. Looking at the stats Doriath has problems scoring against tough defences (Anfaughlith, Angband) but score impressively against more laxed ones (Nargothrond, Inter & AC Bel). With Elrond standing between the posts Eriador defences have allowed only five goals in seven games thus far and will most probably prove to be an insurmountable obstacle to Beleg and Mablung.

Doriath’s own defences are the second problem for them. Where Elrond’s saving percentage from the group stage is 81,3% (83,9% with friendlies combined) Dior’s is ten points lower 71,4% (69,2%). Also, Doriath lets the other teams shoot a lot more than Eriador does – and with about even scoring-percentages it means Eriador should score more.

Now Mablung did score a hat-trick against Nargothrond and Beleg has had a strong tournament as well so far (Luthién did well in the friendlies but has kind of faded in the group-stages), but it looks that Glorfindel and The Witch King are just getting the hang of the game after some lackluster friendlies – and the midfield of Arnorian kings are coming more and more involved in the play. So even if the offenses of both teams are evenish, the AKM would say that looking forwards Eriador’s offence is that tiny inch sharper that decides games at the moment. Unless Mablung is able to repeat that dashing hat-trick performance – which the AKM finds quite unlikely: he scored in Doriath’s first friendly, then went dry for five games (not gaining even a pass leading to a goal) until the last game’s hat-trick.

That doesn’t mean Glorfindel and The Witch King can play comfortably on the level they play right now: if Eriador wishes to go it all the way to the finals the two must really find their form everyone knows is there (or at least has been there the previous years). They are a level better strikers they have shown thus far.

The AKM prediction:
Overall Doriath has scored handsomely but against tougher defences they have scored only 0,3 goals per game. And Eriador knows how to keep the other team from scoring. Doriath though is in a high-flying mood and that might work in their favour. After their first friendlies Eriador in turn has scored consistently two or three goals per game and Doriath’s defences are not that much better – if at all better – than those of Arnor, Gondolin or Inter Bel, so they should score at least two.

Eriador wins 2-0 / 2-1


GAME 3

C1 Erebor 5-2 2-1-0
26,3% 19 (48) – 16 (40) 87,5%
vs. Dwarves Utd. 2-0
vs. Wilderland 2-1
vs. Anduin 1-1

vs. Wilderland 1-2
vs. Dwarves Utd. 1-0
vs. Eriador 1-0
vs. Misty Mts. 2-2
r.12 10-6 4-2-1
23,8% 42 (102) – 33 (81) 81,8%

F2 Imladris 4-3 1-1-1
30,8% 13 (37) – 14 (39) 78,6%
vs. Rohan 0-1
vs. Misty Mts. 3-1
vs. Isengard 1-1

vs. Arnor 2-0
vs. Eriador 0-1
vs. Dwarves Utd. 1-0
vs. Anduin 1-2
r.14 8-6 3-1-3
28,6% 28 (71) – 35 (90) 82,9%

It would look like Erebor should just march through to the quarterfinals from this game and the AKM will actually be joining the obvious-looking prediction. But we’ll naturally stand for a moment to make a few reservations before doing that. Let’s start anyway with why Erebor will win and add the reservations as we go.

Firstly, Erebor has been a consistent team and has lost only one game thus far (their first friendly game against Wilderland which they then beat later in the group stage). Now they were forced into a draw with Misty Mts. whom Imladris beat 3-1 in a real game and that might give someone a pause. But that pause should not be a too long one. In the friendlies, they both beat Dwarves Utd. 1-0 so that would be an even call, but then again Erebor beat Eriador (whoa!) 1-0 while Imladris lost them with the same numbers (Erebor also draw with Anduin in the group stage while Imladris lost them in the friendlies). So all in all, it looks Erebor is the favourite by their previous results.

Secondly, Beorn is looking that much sharper goalie right now than Elros – yes, sharper than Elros himself. Their saving percentages were more or less the same in the friendlies, but after that Beorn has been Mr. Safe himself while Elros’ level has dropped significantly. To counter that claim we could say that Dwarves Utd. or even Anduin are not exactly testing the goal-keeper to his limits. But at the same time we might wonder whether Rohan or Isengard are that either? Both teams have faced one offensive powerhouse in their groups aka. Wilderland and Misty Mts. so that would be a draw there – but Beorn still has a ten point lead in saving percentages…

Thirdly the scoring. Erebor has scored one more goal in the group stage than Imladris, but looking at the other teams in the groups it is evident that playing against such defence-oriented teams like Dwarves Utd. and Anduin is much more difficult than scoring against Misty Mts. or Isengard. But how to compare fex. the following facts from the group stage: Imladris managed to score three goals behind Misty Mts. in one game vs. Erebor scored two behind the hedgehog-defence of Dwarves Utd.?

One important element here is Smaug. He scored three goals in the friendlies (four games) but only one in the group stage (three games). Where is the Smaug we all know? Bard has taken some of the responsibility for scoring to team Erebor when Thranduil has also been pretty invisible.

But if there is a team people have been thinking might have problems scoring, then that’s Imladris (well, Dwarves Utd. to be sure, but even there Celebrimbor and Legolas have kind of awaken): so are Elladan and Elrohir ready to fill the boots of top-scorers? Thus far they haven’t been, and looking farther into the tournament one must say it would be a miracle if they did.

The AKM prediction:
All the numbers and general reasons favour Erebor, but the AKM wishes to bring in a few factors. Now if Elros raises up to the occasion with his “winner-genes” and Elladan and Elrohir answer the call – and if Smaug continues his sleepy ways, there is a fair chance Imladris can draw or even win the game (if there is a penalty shoot-out it will be really close with star forwards of Erebor against the star-keeper Elros!). That said…

Erebor wins 1-0


GAME 4

D1 FC Valinor 8-2 3-0-0
36,4% 22 (53) – 14 (44) 85,7%
vs. Real Valinor 3-0
vs. Armenelos 2-0
vs. Tirion 3-2

vs. The Havens 3-2
vs. Nargothrond 4-2
vs. Real Valinor 2-1
vs. The Downer 4-0
r.1 21-7 7-0-0
39,6% 53 (117) – 36 (103) 80,6%

E2 The Havens 5-5 0-3-0
25% 20 (48) – 19 (45) 73,7%
vs. Valimar 1-1
vs. Hithlum 2-2
vs. The Sea 2-2

vs. FC Valinor 2-3
vs. Tirion 3-5
vs. Barad Dûr 3-2
vs. AC Beleriand 1-3
r.21 14-18 1-3-3
29,8% 47 (107) – 52 (107) 65,4%

FC Valinor has been just a phenomenon: 21 goals scored in seven matches bring about the incredible but exact average of three goals per match. They have also won all their seven matches: no losses, no draws. During the group stage Huan’s saving percentage has been 85,7%, and that is from games against sides like Real Valinor, Tirion and Armenelos! Meanwhile the team has scored from more than one third of their shots on goal – 40% if counting the friendlies… while shooting the staggering number of 117 shots in total and 53 on target in the seven games they have played.

Can anyone stop them? Can The Havens stop them? One might have to answer the frist question with a slight but insecure nod; someone should be able to stop them on a good day, but to the second one? Probably not. Enter the “but-men”, though.

The Havens only lost 2-3 in the first friendly against FC Valinor. So, they have scored behind Huan. That’s a point (on top of that only Nargothrond and Tirion have managed to score two goals behind Huan, in competitive games only Tirion). But then again the friendly between the two went more or less in a way that FC Valinor scored, pulled down on purpose, Havens equalised to make FC score again, pull back etc.

Another point to make it a bit more tight game: many analysts thought after seeing the groups that the winners of group D would face their toughest adversaries in the first round of the play-offs, the winners from group E. AC Beleriand sure has something to say on that if not Eriador or Angband. But the fact that The Havens cleared it’s way through group E says something of the strength of the team. Yes it was penalties, but still they draw with all their opponents, no lesser teams than The Sea, Hithlum and Valimar. So, The Havens is not an easy team to beat for anyone.

Now some say it was just their home-advantage that took them such a long way forwards – and with something like a penalty shoot-out deciding the final outcome a home advance (or disadvantage) might have a role. But that still doesn’t take away the fact they draw with three major teams in the group stage.

Cirdan has raised in stature to be a way better goalie he was in the friendlies and the penalty shoot-out has boosted him, but that is probably not enough when facing Curufin and Celegorm – and the active midfield of FC Valinor led by Yavanna. Tuor and Eärendil on the other hand are quality forwards but the AKM thinks they face a bit too big a task if they need to produce results the two of them (Aegnor rose to the occasion on their last game against The Sea but being good in one game doesn’t exactly spell for steady or reliable support).

The AKM prediction:
All that said, the numbers and the general feeling is just overwhelming: The Havens may tease FC Valinor and put them into a test, but they will not be the first team to beat them. The Havens scores once though, FC Valinor scores at least two or three. If the game turns really tight The Havens may force FC Valinor into the extra time but FC will win that before any shoot-outs.

FC Valinor wins 3-1 / 2-1 / (3-2 ot.)


GAME 5

E1 The Sea 5-5 0-3-0
29,4% 17 (41) – 15 (41) 66,7%
vs. Hithlum 2-2
vs. Valimar 1-1
vs. The Havens 2-2

vs. Tirion 2-2
vs. Rohan 1-1
vs. Armenelos 1-1
vs. Barad Dûr 2-1
r.7 11-10 1-6-0
26,8% 41 (90) – 34 (95) 70,6%

D2 Real Valinor 4-5 2-0-1
22,2% 18 (46) – 16 (39) 68,8%
vs. FC Valinor 0-3
vs. Tirion 2-1
vs. Armenelos 2-1

vs. Gondolin 3-1
vs. Hithlum 5-2
vs. FC Valinor 1-2
vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth 3-1
r.2 16-11 5-0-2
32,7% 49 (111) – 37 (99) 70,3%

The AKM will call this game to Real Valinor. Now many have a feeling Real hasn’t quite performed as they were presumed, but looking at their stats one can only find a very compact and solid performance. They have lost to FC Valinor, two times actually, but they have won all the other matches they have played. And actually taking away the factor that they have played, and lost to, FC Valinor twice, they would actually end up with five victories from five games with a goal differential of 15-6! The average being more or less 3-1 per game… and the teams they have played against are no less quality than Armenelos, Tirion, Hithlum, Gondolin and the T-I-G… (this imaginary scenario would lead up to a seven game total of 21-8 or 21-9 which is the same, well only one or two goals allowed more of what FC Valinor has… but had they had even one easier opponent – like FC Valinor had The Downer they beat 4-0 – then even that stat would have been the same, if not better than that of FC Valinor!) So the AKM still thinks Real Valinor is going strong and forwards.

But going into the “what if” and “but” –departments then…

First of all and obviously: The Sea is a very good team and a master of draws. Ulmo’s tactics are almost as conservative as Manwë’s and they are thence also masters in freezing the game. And given room, the two Númenorian forward-players Tar Minastir and Tar Aldarion can vreac some havoc. Looking at the stats of the group stage they have actually been more efficient than the famous Real Valinor trio Nerdanel – Miriel – Arien! Also Voronwë has proved to be, according to the numbers, as good a goaltender as Tulkas and his great saves in the penalty shoot-out competition must have only made him stronger. So what if they manage to suffocate Real Valinor’s attacks and then hit on counter-attacks they might be in for a surprise? They might.

But first of all the AKM wishes to look behind those two defeats of Real Valinor to FC Valinor before talking about the stats anything more. Erasing the two defeats to FC Valinor, Real Valinor’s scoring effectivity would be 36,6% and Tulkas’ saving percentage would be 75%. Both numbers, but especially the latter, would take Real Valinor clearly over The Sea. And had they had even one “easy opponent”, what would those numbers be then?

Secondly. People talk of the “inefficiency” of the Real Valimar forward-trio, but let’s remember they have played against such super-solid defences as FC Valinor and Armenelos during the group stage – during the friendlies they were very effec tive indeed (Arien 5+0, Miriel 4+3 and Nerdanel 0+3 in four games). Now to be honest The Sea has a solid defence as well, but if The Havens can score twice behind them the AKM sees no reason why Real Valinor couldn’t do the same, or better.

The AKM prediction:
The Sea will keep the game close but Real Valinor will prevail in the end. If The Sea manages to score the first goal it will become harder for Real Valinor to win comfortably as The Sea will then draw back and defend their goal with basically all their players. In case their tactics work it might even be a draw, but Real Valinor will win the overtime. If they get to the penalties The Sea might be stronger with their great performance in the group stage… or then not. But if Real Valinor scores first they’ll have an easier day out and could win with two goals as being behind forces The Sea to open their game.

Real Valinor wins 3-1 / 2-1


GAME 6

F1 Rohan 3-1 2-1-0
27,3% 11 (34) – 10 (31) 90%
vs. Imladris 1-0
vs. Isengard 1-0
vs. Misty Mts. 1-1

vs. Barad Dûr 2-0
vs. The Sea 1-1
vs. Minas Tirith 1-1
vs. Gondor 1-1
r.16 8-4 3-4-0
25% 32 (77) – 24 (66) 83,3%


C2 Dwarves Utd. 3-4 1-1-1
27,3% 11 (26) – 19 (49) 79%
vs. Erebor 0-2
vs. Anduin 1-1
vs. Wilderland 2-1

vs. Misty Mts. 0-0
vs. Erebor 0-1
vs. Imladris 0-1
vs. Wilderland 1-4
r.31 4-10 1-2-4
13,8% 29 (69) – 36 (95) 72,2%

Even if this game might actually turn into a much more interesting competition than many would predict, the AKM is not going to bet it’s money on Dwarves United to qualify. But why then do we think this might be a close match? There are several reasons.

Now Rohan is playing into that sensational mearas-defence behind which stands Theoden like they could repeat the miracle. But the last time they had also scorers in their team which they are desperately lacking this year. It’s not enough to defend proudly, but one needs to score as well to win games. Especially the farther we go int the tournament.

Secondly, with memories of that celebrated team looming large in the back of the minds of people many tend to overestimate the strength of team Rohan. The AKM thinks that it’s own ranking of team Rohans as no. 16 after the friendlies is more or less accurate. The only game they have played even worthy of mention is their 1-1 draw with The Sea in the friendlies, but even that was a lapsed walk-through with no real effort by either side.

And here are the chances of the Dwarves Utd. So if Dwarves Utd. plays their defence up to their standards Rohan will have hard time scoring even one goal (the AKM actually believes they will score one, but not more). Meanwhile, Celembrimbor has been on an upward path in the tournament: he has made three of all the four goals Dwarves Utd. has scored (friendlies & group-games combined), two of them in the last two group stage games. So it might well be the game ends 1-1 as well. If it goes to penalties Rohan stands up as clear favourites for two reasons: Theoden outshines Bombur as a goalie and Rohan has more than one player able of scoring goals.

The AKM prediction:
So it will be a tight game as both teams are great defencively. Sadly both teams lack in offence so it might be a boring one. And whichever team wins, it will be dropped out of the competition on the next round. Rohan qualifies.

Rohan wins 1-0 , or a draw 0-0 / 1-1 (Rohan wins ot. or pen.)


GAME 7

G1 AC Beleriand 8-3 2-1-0
36,4% 22 (52) – 11 (30) 72,7%
vs. Doriath 2-2
vs. Nargothrond 5-1
vs. Anfaughlith 1-0

vs. Inter Beleriand 2-0
vs. Valimar 1-1
vs. Angband 0-0
vs. The Havens 3-1
r.4 14-5 4-3-0
32,6% 43 (102) – 27 (75) 81,5%

B2 Gondolin 7-5 1-1-1
31,8% 22 (55) – 16 (40) 68,8%
vs. Inter Beleriand 2-2
vs. Eriador 1-3
vs. Arnor 4-0

vs. Real Valinor 1-3
vs. Doriath 3-2
vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth 2-2
vs. Nargothrond 3-4
r.19 16-16 2-2-3
33,3% 48 (113) – 49 (105) 65,3%

It is undeniable that AC Beleriand is the favourite team here. The AKM is still holding to their view that AC Beleriand is actually the only team from this side of the bracket that can challenge the winners from the game between The Sea and Real Valinor and make it to the finals instead.

Enter the “buts”…

Now Gondolin’s performance has been, to put it nicely, a bit incoherent. They took quite nasty 3-1 beatings from both Real Valinor and Eriador, but whenever they have met a team with not a top class defence they have been creating havoc on the opposite side’s goal: 16 scored goals from all seven matches speaks for it’s own (especially if one considers they have been left into just one goal in those two afore-mentioned games = 14 goals in 5 games aka. basically 3 goals per game in others).

And well, Gondolin has 20 million forwards Maeglin (6+3) and Gothmog the lord of Balrogs (8+3) doing their job there pretty effectively. Compared to AC Beleriand’s forward duo Fëanor (5+3) and Eöl (2+4) that is plain crushing statistics. Now one could say that Beren (4+1) has an important role in AC Bel’s attacking, but Duilin (2+4) balances that nicely on Gondolin side.

If there is a weakness in AC Beleriand that is their defence, or especially Marach’s goalkeeping (72,7% from the group stage is not exactly bad, but not especially good either). So add here the stupendous attacking-machine of Gondolin and you might see interesting things.

But there is also an extra-factor involved: persona relations. Gothmog and Fëanor fex. will meet again in the field! Fëanor surely looks for a revenge, but Gothmog hardly is going to willingly allow Fëanor to outshine him. Adding to that, Echtelion surely would like to stand his ground in defence in revenge against Gothmog, but Gothmog might rather have a replay in mind. Also, not too many in AC Bel’s line-up have anything nice in mind when meeting the mighty Maeglin – but how will his father cope with the meeting, especially when he is playing for AC himself and his son is actually playing for Gondolin?

But, but, but… even if Gondolin knows how to score they also allow too many goals, way too many. Especially Rôg has been a real disappointment this time around: saving percentage of 68,8% (65,3% friendlies included) is just not enough when meeting AC Beleriand with a hungry Fëanor and a top-form Beren.

The AKM prediction:
It will be a game of outscoring the opponent. Gondolin might have a slight edge in the quality of their attackers (hard to belive that being said against a team that has Fëanor in their squad, but that is true nevertheless) but AC Beleriand’s defences have a wider edge against Gondolin’s and that will in the end decide the match.

AC Beleriand wins 3-2 / 4-3 / (3-2 ot.)


GAME 8

H1 Gondor 7-5 2-1-0
33,3% 21 (50) – 19 (47) 73,7%
vs. Mordor 2-1
vs. Barad Dûr 3-2
vs. Minas Tirith 2-2

vs. Armenelos 1-1
vs. Isengard 1-1
vs. Arnor 1-2
vs. Rohan 1-1
r.27 11-10 2-4-1
26,9% 41 (96) – 42 (97) 76,2%

A2 Shire-Bree Utd. 6-5 1-2-0
28,6% 21 (44) – 17 (50) 70,6%
vs. Tol-In-Gaurhoth 2-2
vs. Angband 2-2
vs. The Downer 2-1

vs. Nargothrond 4-4
vs. Misty Mts. 3-3
vs. Isengard 3-3
vs. Eriador 1-3
r.25 17-18 1-5-1
34% 50 (107) – 61,7% 47 (113) 61,7%

It is a kind of odd to see these two teams play in the play-offs while such a many great teams have been dropped out in groups levels higher. Well, whichever wins will have some serious problems meeting the winner from AC Beleriand vs. Gondolin match on the next round. But of the two Shire-Bree United is the favourite by the AKM.

Now one question though is, will Bombadill turn his attention from the daffodills to the game again? He was playing like only he can in the friendlies, scoring 5+2 there, but in the group stage his attention span and thus also his results have been coming down steadily: in the first game he made 1+1, on second 1+0 and in their last he was left in 0+0. Strider, Khamûl and The Barrow-Wight will offer backup and score the goals needed against gondor for Shire-Bree to qualify for the next round if Bombadill doesn’t. But if they are dreaming of anything more than the next game, then Bombadill must come back and join the scoring.

On the other side, Anárion, the Númenor-born High King of Gondor and Arnor (3+2 / 5+4) has risen to lead his team with the first Ship-King Tarannon Falastur (2+0 / 4+1). A lot depends on them being able to answer the scoring of the Shire-Bree offence.

In the end it might prove a closer game than expected as Shire-Bree has a slight edge on offence while Gondor claims one in defence. But even if gondor’s stats look a bit better on every front the AKM still thinks that the Shire-Bree has had stronger opponents, especially more offencive opponents – which means Shire-Bree’s defencive stas should better when comparing them to Gondor’s stats. And that we think will decide the game.

The AKM prediction:
Shire-Bree Utd. has a wide range of players who can score when others don’t – and if Bombadill is awake they will get an additional scoring-boost. Gondor is a decent team and will fight back but will in the end need to accept a loss, even if it goes overtime.

Shire-Bree United wins 2-1 / 3-1 / (3-2 ot.)