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Old 02-27-2012, 10:24 AM   #445
Shastanis Althreduin
Werewolf Psychic
 
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pomegranate View Post
Agh. And I felt so smart suspecting the same person three days in a row, just to find out that despite everything I thought had to mean he was a wolf, he wasn't. Now it's my turn to need a full reevaluation of everything.

And I was going to bring about the same point as Lommy. We can't afford to lose an innocent today. At least not alone - a double lynch with a wolf and an innocent would still keep us alive. Hence today, if it was considerately done, I would suggest to think about a double lynch. Counting numbers:

Lommy already mentioned what happens if we lynch an innocent today. We're dead.
If we lynch a wolf today, and they kill an innocent at night, we end up with 4-2 (+1) tomorrow. That's pretty much the same situation as today.
If we lynch the acolyte today, it's 4-3 tomorrow, which means we have our chances, but they are not big.

Whereas:

If we lynch two innocents today, we're dead, surprisingly.
If we lynch an innocent and a wolf, it's 3-2 (+1) tomorrow, which is bad, but not as bad as lynching only an innocent.
If we lynch two wolves today, we might be able to breath again.
If we lynch the acolyte and an innocent, we're done for.
If we lynch the acolyte and a wolf, it's 4-2 and the unknown powers of this game are gone.

This obviously again depends on the acolyte, their alignment etc. But let's not discuss that all the time today.

I'll need to think and evaluate a lot before I have an opinion, an idea of this game again. I'll be doing that now (as well as writing an essay).
Before I delve too far into analyses and such, I want to comment on this.

Now watch out, Shasta's speculating about the Acolyte again! Lynch him!

The narration of the Night, to me, certainly makes it seem like the Acolyte joined the side of the village last night. I think what happened is, either the Acolyte targeted Eonwe for something, Eonwe dreamt of the Acolyte, or both (this is the one I'm leaning toward - in the narration, the Envoy says he dreamt of the Acolyte, and the narration also has the Acolyte coming to the Envoy's door) and some combination of these events led to the Acolyte becoming innocent (given the whole teaching session, perhaps Eonwe managed to pass on his Seer powers?)

Now, granted, Nerwen was clear that the Acolyte doesn't count for either side in the tally. But what if they aren't the Acolyte anymore? If they did become innocent (big if, but I think, possible), the tally becomes 3-6... and suddenly a double-lynch becomes the only way the wolves can win toMorrow. This makes me raise my eyebrows at Pom a bit, because she basically came out of the gate toDay with some support for a double-lynch toDay.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV
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