[Nogrod]

So the play-offs begin and the AKM will be right on the spot. We agree on many issues with TTN, but feel happy to disagree with a few as well. So here’s our take on the first round of knock-out matches.

The numbers after each team are:
points taken in the group phase
Goal difference (scored - allowed)
Scoring percentage (from total shots)
shots on goal / total shots
shots on goal allowed / total shots allowed
goalie's saving percentage



Minas Morgul at Doriath

Doriath 9 11-1 22,4% 28(49) – 12(36) 91,7%
Minas Morgul 4 5-5 16,1% 19(31) – 17(37) 70,6%

One can’t say group A was one of the toughest groups this year, but Doriath nevertheless dominated the group sovereignly. They have the most goals, most shots and the best scoring percentage of all the teams thus far in the tournament. To top that Huan is the third best goalie looking at the saving percentage and Doriath’s defence the sixth tightest. To be honest, right now they look one of the hottest teams around – and serious contenders for the Arda Cup this year. Minas Morgul on the other hand barely got themselves through group H which had Minas Tirith and Dunharrow in it! Looking at the stats Minas Morgul is clearly below the top ten, while Doriath is one of the strongest teams in the top three.

Doriath goes through.


Valinor at Wilderland

Wilderland 9 8-2 16,3% 24(49) –11(30) 81,8%
Valinor 6 7-4 14,9% 21(47) – 15(34) 73,3%

Here we agree with the TTN as well: the stats say WIlderland are the favourites, but Valinor will prevail. It looks like Sauron has played his cards the wrong way this year – and were the opponents anyone but a Valar-team we would have considered him having a chance. Not to talk that they will have an enraged Tulkas against them, and team Valinor’s slightly worse stats coming from a level or two tougher group. Let us make it more concrete: Wilderland won Anduin and Misty Mts. 2-1 while Valinor won Beleriand and Gondolin 3-1. It’s clear which team has played better. Also, the greatest difference between the teams in the stats comes from Wilderland beating the lousy Easgaroth 4-0 while in their third match Valinor was forced to bend to Pelori 1-2 after a huge game.

So we say bye-bye to the stats and say Valinor will qualify.


Tol Eressëa at Angband

Angband 7 9-4 20,9% 21(43) – 17(39) 76,5%
Tol Eressëa 6 3-2 11,5% 12(26) – 11(30) 81,8%

This will be much more heavily contested game than the two first ones. It looks like clear from the stats, but Tol Eressëa, like all Valinor-based teams, seem to be able to adjust their game and bring forth that extra gear when needed. TTN was quite up to the point asking whether Ungoliant would be afraid of Eärwen, Elwing or Uinen. But we must return the question: does anyone believe Ulmo with Ossë and Salmar will be afraid of Ancalagon, Thuringwethil or Tevildo? But even if it will be much tougher that the stats show, there are two things that make the scales lean on Angband’s favour: Tol Eressëa did lose to Westernesse quite straightforward 0-2 (so they can be beaten with a few goals) and the Moonman Tilion is a force that could unbalance even the Tol Eressëa defense – even if hasn’t been too flashing yet. (A wink here for the phantasy-players).

After a tough fight Angband will win.


The Forest at Eregion

Eregion 9 7-1 18,9% 19(37) – 19(40) 94,7%
The Forest 6 6-7 16,7% 16(36) – 18(41) 61,1%

Eregion look like the favourites in this one: Elrond is statswise clearly the toughest guy to beat at his goal in this tournament and Glorfindel is on fire, sharing the second place with Maeglin and Legolas on the phantasy-points (only two points behind the leaders Túrin and, well Elrond). But there is a greater but here the TTN allows there to be. And that is the extremely low quality of Group D – both on offense and on defense. So Eregion’s stats look far too good in comparison to their real level of play, and that means also Elrond’s spectacular saving’s percentage is based on a too light a testing thus far. And here we come to the issue TTN does acknowledge; if Bombadill is in the mood for it, The Forest will be scoring, and the question becomes how well do The Forest’s backlines work against Glorfindel, Eërendil and Elrond’s sons – and the defense has been the weakest part of The Forest thus far…

If Tom is serious about the game it will be o tough one, but Eregion has slightly better chances to win.


Barad Dûr at Tol-In-Gaurhoth

T-I-G 9 9-1 18,8% 24(48) – 9(25) 88,9%
Barad Dûr 4 4-5 11,1% 16(36) – 21(41) 76,2%

Gil Galad and Isildur made some bad decisions pre-tournament and are paying for them now. Without the lucky strike of being put into the shabby-group D they played in, they would have been left into the group-phase. It is clear they have no weapons to hold the hungry werewolves at bay. The werewolves score on a wide front and their defense is the second tightest thus far in the whole tournament – backed by Shastawolf with 88,9% savings. To be honest one has to say that T-I-G hasn’t met any really tough opposition yet, but Barad Dür should be a snack to them anyway.

T-I-G wins comfortably.


Anfaughlith at Westernesse

Westernesse 9 8-0 19,5% 20(41) –9(23) 100%
Anfaughlith 7 9-6 19,1% 23(47) – 14(33) 57,2%

We see where TTN is coming from calling this game for Anfaughlith, but we tend to disagree with them here a bit. It is true that group C was very much attack-oriented and group F was quite less so. Still we’d like to remind the readers that from the total of 9 shots on goal Tar Atanamir saved each and every one while from the 14 Huor faced he let in 6! Huor has been a steady achiever during the years but this year his game is totally lost: the saving percentage of 57,2% tells it all, it is the single worst from any team qualified (of all teams only Shire-Bree and Esgaroth had worse goalies). Now it is true Angaughlith has compensated that with a lot of shots and a lot of goals – but Westernesse has scored only one goal less in the three games and shot only three times less on goal (so one shot less in a game on average). As Anfaughlith’s defense isn’t the solidest rock this yuear it will mean Westernesse will shoot – and score. But Anfaughlith hasn’t met with as solid defense Westernesse has and it is questionable their scoring will continue at the same pace.

We still call this a close one, and agree with TTN that this will be one of the jewels of the round, but we’d bet it slightly more on Westernesse to get through from this.


Misty Mts. at Pelori

Pelori 7 5-3 13,2% 17(38) – 13(34) 76,9%
Misty Mts. 4 5-3 13,5% 16(37) – 16(36) 81,3%

We find it interesting TTN finds no difference between these teams and calls this an even game. We’d say there is a quality-difference of several classes here. Caradhras is a good, even if odd goalie and Durin’s Bane and Saruman with the trolls and goblins can threaten lesser souls, but we’re talking that team meeting Pelori led by Manwë himself. It seems TTN has totally disregarded the relative differences of the groups these two teams played in and the sovereignty of Manwë’s teams. So while Misty Mts. faced teams like Esgaroth and Anduin, Pelori faced Beleriand and Gondolin. And in the third match Misty Mts. lost to WIlderland while Pelori beat Valinor. So we see nothing unclear with this game…

Pelori wins (although here we agree with TTN, only with one goal, but not because it is a tight game, but because that’s the way Manwë likes to do it).


Tirion at Lothlórien

Lothlórien 9 7-1 17,5% 23(40) – 11(32) 90,9%
Tirion 4 7-7 16,3% 21(43) – 21(46) 66,7%

The case Fëanor is on everyone’s lips this year – like he is every year – but this time people are wondering about where he is. Only one goal and three passes in three games? It would be a lot to many a player but to Fëanor that is shockingly little. Happily for Lothlórien Legolas has taken the torch and scored while Fëanor has been in the shadows. Tirion has to throw in the trio Finwë, Finrod and Aredhel – and both teams seem to be as good on offence. The greatest difference seems to be in the defence where Lothlórien allows half the shots on goal than Tirion and Galadriel saves a third more of the shots Orodreth does. But then there is the famous “but”: Tirion’s group A had a lot more shooting and scoring talent than Lothlórien’s group H. But even that taken into account, it’s hard to see Lothlórien allowing too many goals, so it will up to Legolas – or possibly Fëanor waking up.

Lothlórien will win, not comfortably, but they will win.