Group C
Predicted standings
1. Angfauglith
2. Angband
3. Hithlum
4. The Downer
TTN will go against the favorite pick of Angband to win the group and say Angfauglith will win the group. At this point just grab a coin and flip it, because they are that ridiculously close and both look like attractive picks to win the Arda Cup. Here they are battling in the same group.
We could find no significant advantage the top 2 teams have against the other. Possibly at GK, as Ungoliant continues to swallow every ball into her unlight, but don't be too qucik to forget Huor HAS won a championship as a keeper, Ungoliant hasn't. Angfauglith did give up 2 more goals, but that was against Doriath and Morgoth's defense isn't impenetrable. Also, we like Angfauglith's attack ever so slightly better than Angband. The Gothmog, Maeglin, and Gwindor trio is superior to the Angband trio. The downside is, Tilion can easily make it the Angband quartet, if he's in the right mood, where Angfauglith doesn't really have the 4th able scorer.
You really can flip flop those teams and since it's so unpredictable TTN is making it's Angfauglith pick based on plot lines. Balrogs are greater than dragons and Fingolfin is the only person with the moxy to ride out, face Morgoth, and smack him around (ok so he did get crushed too, but as this is football, Fingolfin will prove the greater
).
So is it a forgone conclusion the other two are Angs-fodder? Yes. To their credit they are good enough teams to make the games in this group of the highest entertainment (and certainly there is a lot of personality to Hithlum and The Downer squads). The problem is simple though, The Angs are the more complete team. GK Imlach is too inconsistant (and King Bus is just bad), which would be more easily hidden with a good defense. Too bad for Imlach, Hithlum's defense is non existant.
The Downer can get away playing unconventionally in the friendlies, but that strategy won't work now that the teams are playing a full effort. There is a danger with the rash temper of Morgoth though, I can see this Downer team just really peeving him off. (Not because The Downer team will be particularly effective, but simply out of annoyance).
Round 1 Predictions
Angband vs. Hithlum - The keys to the game, the Hithlum FWs against Ungoliant and Morgoth's defense. Hithlum's going to give up goals, but Morgoth doesn't go full attack without mercy. He pressures to get a 2 goal lead and then plays shut down defense. Will Hithlum's attack be good enough to overcome a 2-goal defecit, not against Angband's defense.
Angband wins 3-1
Angfauglith vs. The Downer - I can't see this being a good match up for The Downer at all. Although, admittedly, when the Arda Cup teams were announced I knew nothing about these clowns. And for the first time I've got no analysis other than I wouldn't be surprised if The Downer plays a man short, at some point and then it's a route.
Angfauglith wins 3-0
Phantasy spin
GK- Of the two stars GK, Ungoliant is probably the one I'd most likely want to have. She's a beast and started last year with 4 straight shut out for Utumno. With that said, you can't go wrong with the cheap Huor either. He's led all of his teams at least to the Quarterfinals every year, and last year won a championship for Gondolin shutting out Vinyamar.
DF- I would not be opposed to taking either of the 2-star defenders in this group. Morgoth has moved to defense but know also his offensive abilities when he was a MF. He'll set up the attack starting in the back line, so I think Morgoth can get a lot of points as a DF. Fingolfin is probably the riskier pick out of the 2, but he had 13 pts in the friendlies, Morgoth 14. No significant difference. The Balrogs also make fabulous defenders and are less pricey.
MF- I say get Tilion. At least for the group stages. He disappeared, just as quickly as the moon, in the playoffs. But in the group stages that dude was on fire and single-handedly was Utumno's offense. Not many of hte other midfielders in this group look attractive. Ecthelion and Gothmog have worked out their rocky relationship, so perhapse Ecthelion as a cheap choice. Or take a risk on the unpredictable Downer midfielders (Hookbill, Peter Hampton, and Saucepan), they showed some ability. Wouldn't take them with their first round opponent of Angfauglith however.
FW- Ancalagon disappears way to often to be a dependable phantasy player. And actually any of the Angfauglith or Hithlum forwards would likely be much better choices. The good thing about Angband is their scoring is more spread out so you're almost guaranteed points no matter who you select from their team. However Hador, Curufin, and Celegorm for no cost have a reasonable chance to get a lot more points. (Same can be said for the Angfauglith trio, but they will cost more).