[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
BoroLXXXVIII

Be prepared for the most thorough breakdown of all 8 groups and 32 teams that you will find. With the standard competition of AKM and MESPN, but also new jumpstart competitors like Nilp's blog and The Underground, TTN is really stepping up their efforts to remain the premier news source for phantasy and tournament information. We will cover every group from every possible angle imaginable (and angles unimaginable).

We don't care so much about friendly records, it's all about how the teams ranked in each category (as ArdaCup.com has also done). The difference is TTN includes the performance of goal keepers into their final rankings. Outstanding keepers can cover up leaky defenses and terrible GKs can make some of the better defenses look horrible.

As an example when we compiled all stats Minas Morgul actually allowed fewer shots -41(20)- than Pelori -45(22)- but somehow Minas Morgul gave up 7 more goals. How did this happen? Earnur was looking like swiss cheese at goal, while Manwe was a brick wall. So, in breaking down the teams, TTN produced some different results to include the goal keeper factor.

Group A

Predicted Standings
1. Doriath
2. Tirion
3. Himring
4. Shire-Bree United

1st place is already being awarded to Doriath and not without good reason. Doriath was 1 of 2 teams that was rated Top 5 in all our categories (OFF-1, DEF-5, GK- 4). This also means Doriath is one of the favorites to get into the semi finals (or if they don't make it that far, than their may be a real uprising in Thingol's forest). Whatever happens you have to favor Doriath to advance far because they got solid production from pretty much every position player during the friendlies. It's loaded with talent and grabbing Doriath players on your fantasy team (while some are a bit pricey) would definitely be worth it.

Even though Tirion look like the clear 2nd place favorites, we're not going to outrule an upset by Himring or Shire-Bree (although that chance is ever so slight). Tirion is better and it's really that simple. You look at every position and like Doriath, it's loaded with playoff experience. Aredhel, Finwe, Finrod, and Mahtan at the front, with Aule and Caranthir at the back. Not only is it hard to see these players slacking and allowing themselves to be upset, but they have good chances at knocking off the winner of Group G to go on a deep playoff run. The true weakness I can see is Orodreth is only a decent goalie, and Tirion's defense has shown to give up a lot of shots to teams who emphasize the attack.

So why include the other 2 in this discussion? Well, Himring has championship experience with Maedhros, Fingon and Maglor. The weakness is, no one else inspires a lot of confidence. All the men have pledged undying loyalty to Maedhros and Fingon, but you can't help but wonder what the men from Uldor's clan will do? Uldor does play hard and tough, but also is prone to making a lot of costly defensive mistakes. It's gotten to the point where you see Uldor on a team and you wonder what horrendous goof is he going to make and then just hope Maedhros is good enough to overcome it.

If you take out Shire-Bree's last friendly against the werewolves, which created a match up nightmare then you can see how the hobbits and Breelanders can be an upset pick. But you have to include every game, and at least in the hobbit's favor is none of the teams should be that bad of a mismatch. Let's be clear, they have no chance beating Doriath, but the hobbits won't be scared out of their minds to give an effort. The elephant in the room is their defense and goalie just isn't going to be good enough, without needing a whole lot of luck (and maybe a backdoor deal with Doriath and the refs?) to sneak into 2nd place. They're good enough to get a draw against Himring, but honestly, they need to beat Himring to get a fool's hope.

Round 1 Predictions

Doriath vs. Tirion - The two teams predicted to advance square off in Round 1. Keys to this game will be seeing if there's vulnerability to Doriath's defense. They'll be up against a proven and solid Tirion attack. Tirion's defensive problems are known, can they score enough to get a draw? They can still lose and easily advance from the group, but the defense will have to keep the scoreline close enough. If they're beaten by 2+ goals, that opens the door for Himring and S-B United.
Doriath wins 3-2

Himrings vs. Shire-Bree - Keys to the game has to be the defenses of both teams, and if Maglor can still remain a dependable keeper. The hobbits will look to attack more than Maedhros, so Himring's defense will have to stay smart and not run their legs off by dashing after the smaller hobbits. With that said, Himring should also have no problem putting up goals on their own. Whoever loses is dead in the group, if it ends in a draw, I say they're both dead.
Draw 2-2

Phantasy spin: We've added this section to our breakdown to identify players you may just want to have on your team, at each position.

GK - Huan is going to be your safest bet. He's costly, but always a lock for 4 points and can get a lot of shut outs. I don't like the pick for this round since Tirion has proven goal scorers, and it's risky taking the 2-star hound, when there are better (and cheaper) options in other groups.

DF- Pretty much anyone on Doriath is the way to go. A 2-star defender with an offensive ability (such as Melian - 2 assists in the friendly) are always good picks for teams. If you want to put stars on your defense, it pays off more to spend the extra cost on the 2-star defenders. Melian had 16 phantasy pts, Beren (1-star) had 10. That's a pretty big difference and worth the extra cost. If you don't want to spend your stars on DF, then better to go with Thingol or Carcharoth than any of the other defenders in this group.

MF- This group is loaded with good mid-fielders because of their offensive abilities. Hurin, Eol (Doriath) and Finrod (Tirion) are always involved in the attack and are usually good bets to score goals. The Hobbit MF also have a mind to attack, but with them there's a bit more risk involved as you don't know how much success they can have, where there's more sure-fire points from the three 1-star midfielders.

FW- A lot of good options at FW too. For those who like to spend stars on FWs, you can't go wrong with Turin. However, to no cost you can get Finwe or Aredhel (Tirion) and they've been getting points consistantly for years. Although, I don't know how much I like their chances against Doriath in Round 1. So, perhaps a bit more safety drafting Maedhros of Fingon who should have little trouble scoring against the weak Shire-Bree defense.