FRIENDLIES - ROUND 3 PREDICTIONS
BoroLXXXVIII, Two Towers Network
After a terrible Round 1, Round 2 was a definite improvement getting several of the scores and winners correct. AKM laughs at the attempt to predict friendly matches, but now you know part of the secret, I need warming up like all the teams. Which is why AKM may be superior in their statistical analysis, but TTN is light years ahead with their prediction maker department.
This round sees a lot of great match ups (and it wouldn't surprise me if some of these teams met again deep into the tournament. Which will make a lot of these friendlies hard to predict since teams may be holding back their full arsenal of tricks.
Anduin (0-1-1) vs Dunharrow (0-0-2)
Dunharrow can't get goals because they can't create enough quality chances. With that said Anduin's surrendered at least 2 per game because Fram's been a sub par keeper at best. So Dunharrow should be able to pick up at least 1, for if they don't their is truly terrible. Can Anduin get 2 then? Not with the limitted chances Dunharrow's defense allows, and Aldor has shaken off the cobwebs.
Draw 1-1
Angband (2-0-0) vs Pelori (2-0-0)
Age old enemies meet in the friendlies, but it should be tamer (at least more tame than if these two meet in the playoffs!) In past years Melkor showed the wisdom to put on a fair cloak and play with the Valar, but we'll see how much like Morgoth he has truly become now. Will either of these teams have the drive to beat their rival? Angband perhaps a bit more, hoping to beat the team that knocked them out of the group stage last year.
Angband wins 2-1
Angfauglith (2-0-0) vs Doriath (2-0-0)
This is ridiculously hard to predict, because so far Doriath has shown inspiration to put good effort into their friendlies. However, after their 2 convincing wins Doriath may think they're ready with all kinks worked out and choose to relax in the final 2 friendlies. Basically the same story for Angfauglith, 2 solid wins they should also relax in effort. Hopefully they will meet in the playoffs, so we could fully apprciate a match for the ages.
Draw 2-2
Barad-dur (0-1-1) vs Minas Morgul (0-0-2)
Minas Morgul has done a good job outshooting both their opponents, but this hasn't led to more goals. And it has a lot to do with Earnur who couldn't stop a bagel from somehow toasting in a freezer right now. Minas Morgul should continue outshooting their opponents, especially a weaker one like Barad-dur, and it will finally pay off in goals since Ohtar isn't much better than Earnur
Minas Morgul wins 4-2
Beleriand (2-0-0) vs Numenor (1-0-1)
2 decent wins by Beleriand, but I still can't see how they can keep up the success. It relies far too much on Halmir, who I can't see keeping up the ridiculous 90.9 save%. You give up as many attempts that Beleriand surrenders, the numbers will average out in the end and even if Halmir continues playing like Superman, even Superman is beatable between the posts.
Numenor wins 1-0
Eregion (1-0-1) vs Lothlorien (1-0-1)
This will be interesting and quite friendly, so I imagine quite boring, since both will want to sit back and defend. Lothlorien probably has the better offensive ability, but the problem is Galadriel refuses to do anything but defend and then counter attack. I say problem, because Eregion is simply impossible to play counter-attack football again, their defense is too good. Also, to beat Elrond you have to keep the shots firing in, and even then he's almost impossible to beat. Could end in a draw but I'll say
Eregion wins 1-0
Eriador (0-1-1) vs Shire-Bree United (0-2-0)
Despite only getting 2 draws no one can deny the hobbits have not been exciting to watch. Normally they're just amusing because they get run over, but then even seeing that all the time became boring. Arvedui will likely let the hobbits play confidentally, since the Rangers, being long time guardians of the Shire, will likely let them take their cracks on goal
Draw 2-2
Esgaroth (0-1-1) vs Misty Mts (0-1-1)
Esgaroth has performed better than the Dale team last year (getting rid of the ravens on defense looks to have been a better move for them), but still not sure how dangerous they really are without Smaug. This could be a key game in measuring how Esgaroth will fare in the tournament. Misty Mts draw with Anduin doesn't look great now, but the 0-1 to defeat against Pelori does, especially since Misty Mts wasn't statistically dominated.
Misty Mts wins 2-1
Gondolin (0-1-1) vs Nargothrond (0-2-0)
Nargothrond are the draw specialists so far, but they can't keep it up with only Glaurung doing the scoring. Gondolin's lost a lot from their championship last year but they're still proving difficult to beat as well. Turgon knows how to win.
Gondlin wins 2-1
Gondor (1-1-0) vs Mordor (2-0-0)
Another game of bitter rivals and both have played good friendlies. Gondor looks even improved from last year's team under Arwen's leadership. And the Silent Watcher has shown the ability to stand up to some decent attacks (but still not strikers of the Witch-King's quality). Gondor however, doesn't have anyone of that quality.
Draw 1-1
Himring (0-1-1) vs The Forest (0-1-1)
Maedhros and Fingon seem to be the only real threats for Himring, especially with Maglor's performance being declined from last year. Although, Maedhros and Fingon can be a match for many teams. There appears to be no dissent on The Forest team, as they have all come together to play for Bomadil (or for the concept of preservation maybe?) Whatever reasons The Forest have joined together, more than Bombadil will have to start pulling their weight (looks at Thranduil and Saeros)
Himring wins 3-2
Hithlum (0-1-1) vs Mithrim (0-0-2)
Hithlum just doesn't seem to be working right now and the purchase of Celegorm and Curufin is coming back to bite Hador. With that said Mithrim looks to be in even worse shape as Tuor's gamble seems to have really failed.
Hithlum wins 2-0
Minas Tirith (0-0-2) vs The Downer (0-2-0)
The Downer has so far outshot both their opponents, even though the matches ended in a draw. Minas Tirith has been outshot by their opponents in both matches so far. The Downer's unconventional play is taking the Arda Cup teams by surprise and it will continue paying off (at least until one team finally figures out the rationale behind their irrationality). It won't happen yet and it won't be Minas Tirith.
The Downer wins 3-2
Tirion (1-0-1) vs Tol Eressea (0-0-2)
Tol Eressea's attack is just as bad as Dunharrow's right now and Ulmo is really playing quarter-heartedly. However, even last year, playing the friendlies completely uninspired, Ulmo managed 4 draws with Vinyamar. Not so with Tol Eressea this friendly year.
Tirion wins 1-0
Tol in Gaurhoth (1-1-0) vs Wilderland (2-0-0)
This is interesting as a bunch of cunning baddies meet on the pitch for a brutal game. Sauron having prior allegiances with Tol in Gaurhoth will likely try to keep things tame, and since it's still the friendlies, at least some of the wolves *ahem*phantomwolf*endahem* just won't play at all. I still say dragons make meaner foes than werewolves.
Wilderland wins 3-1
Valinor (2-0-0) vs Westernesse (1-1-0)
Another match I'd like to see played in the playoffs, and not just the friendlies. It still should be pretty entertaining with these two rivals, but still not as exciting as what could be if they meet in the tournament. Valinor looks to be the more complete team as Westernesse has had some most unusual defensive and goal keeping breakdowns.
Valinor wins 2-1