An analysis of Nogrod:
Day 3
(Ah! The theory he meant involving
Glirdan and
Lottie was their conversation about
Glirdan being visible. Huh.)
Defended his Day 1 vote for
Glirdan based on
the phantom and
Boro expressing that they could vote for him, despite having others he suspect more. Explains that since ties end with no-lynches it is best not to spread the votes too much. Says he was pretty uneasy about
Bom because it felt like Bom had orders to go after him (which I didn't pick up - I'll try to read Bom's posts after this). Has no special reason to believe that
Lhuna is Shelob. Asks everyone to play with quality and take on a phantom mode.
...wait a minute. Something Nogrod said about
the phantom (post #325) just made me realise something.
Some of us have been working under the assumption that someone who has been stung would likely try to get everyone's attention - most importantly Sam's - so xe could be healed and brought back to the good side. But now that I think about it, one could choose not to do that. If xe would rather be a baddie and try winning as one, then they would wait until they are completely turned and not attempt to get Sam's attention. Which means we could be going wrongly about some things.
Anyway. Back to Nogrod.
Thinks
Lhuna should be innocent on Day 3, and
the phantom would be of more use alive than dead. Trusts
wilwa.
And now, for the main point of this series of posts...
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nogrod
And that would indeed fit nicely with Lhuna not being a goodie as then Sam would have tried to fight against us thiknig Lhuna innocent, and Lhuna's stumbling with accusing tp is a nice additional extra - she wished to play on a suspicion over tp but failed to make the claim he tried to oust Sam (which is a possible claim) and said he tried to oust the Doc (which has no sense at all).
...
If I'm right about Sam then Sam was against us giving Lhuna a pass because he had protected her against the major feeling... That I think matters here. Okay. I might be wrong about Sam but I think Sally wouldn't approve me talking about Sam openly at this stage.
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...I still have no idea what he was talking about.
This entails that he has an idea of who Sam is. He tried to put forth his theory on Sam yesterDay and reasons that if he's right Sam would remain safe as he can't be stung by Shelob. But in that case Sam cannot confirm his theory (because of the no reveals rule) and what we're still left with is a theory.
This is making my head ache.
His sincerity in exposing most of his thoughts for us to see is, for me, the work of either an innocent trying to make up for the relative inactivity of most players in the game, or a baddie trying to get everyone confused and distracted from lynching Shelob. Would a
Noglob be so bold as to place himself within everyone's plain sight. I think he might be.
That said, he's still my best bet. But I wish I had time (and patience) to look at the others.