Quote:
Originally Posted by Mithalwen
Glorfy would have been certain enough I were doomed and would't have wasted a self protect.
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Good point, that's true indeed. I didn't think about that, but it does not actually change the fact that the wolves wish to have the ranger's identity.
First of all, they might try to suggest sending the ranger to Mandos to gather knowledge via a lynch - with the false pretense that they have already bagged one wolf and that they have time for it (which they don't - even if they had bagged one wolf already, which they haven't either - compare to the speculation about it being reasonable to think they have done it already *
Nerwen*), thus leaving the village unprotected for two Nights...
Or depending on the general mood, if it goes against lynching the ranger (why they haven't openly suggested it yet), the identity of the ranger known would help them determine whom s/he might protect if not her/himself... critical things if the ranger is still alive and they need a "clean shot" the next Night to win immediately.
But all this raises some doubts in me for my initial theory anyway.
So what do you think, how probable it is the innocent villagers really think they have gotten one wolf already? If they were confident about that, it would be more understandable they speculated about the ranger themselves s well (so not everyone calling for the ranger to come out would be bad
per se, but only unthoughtful... although even that leaves me puzzled as to why don't they see how on the edge they are, were it that way.
Let me speculate.
Looking at it that way, an innocent confident on one wolf already bagged would have it 2-6. Looking at how many have died (add the popular meme I am a cobbler & the case Legate), they'd probably think there is one cobbler left there.
So 2-1-5?
Losing two innocents before toMorrow (lynch & Nightkill) would mean toMorrow numbers would be like 2-1-3 (end of game most probably) or 2-4 (chances to play). But the ranger would be back only the Day after that... so they'd think they'd have to hang on without any knowledge for a full Day after that with either of the odds above.
As I said, quite puzzling. If an innocent thought of the odds for survival they'd need to go for a wolf and fast, even if they thought they were one wolf down. And there
Boro says let's lynch
the phantom even if he is just a cobbler! The "ranger method" is basically too slow now as s/he would be back there only two Days from now giving the wolves ample chances to kill people with no ranger around protecting them. And with
Mith gone there is no other news the ranger might give them.
And the wolves know there are three of them so none of the above really puzzles them, but they may try to play on that.
But trying to separate possible innocent speculation from the malicious ones, what do you think - especially
Mith and other "latest arrivals" - is there a feeling there that they have rid themselves of one wolf already? (I'm especially thinking about
Ang here and whether I should reconsider what he said back there - needs to check it myself as well.)