Well then- Glorfindel possibly has a play up his sleeve now- the identity of a non-Wolf. And since he can come back from the dead to prove his claim, that person will be a proven innocent.
Let's say he reveals both himself and his target. That person dies tonight, as that is the guaranteed kill (Glorfy can't protect him twice in a row). The following night the Wolves have to go after Glorfy and he protects himself (another foiled kill!), and then the next night they finally do kill him, but he simply returns again, only with double protections! The first night he will probably protect himself, as the Wolves will likely feel obligated to try and off him two night in a row, for it is too great a gamble for them to risk being foiled by yet another protection (in other words, he's likely to foil another kill after returning).
So, basically what we have is FOUR nights amounting to ONE kill (the Wolves selecting Glorfy all four nights in a row). Or at least that is the percentage play given the impossibility of the Wolves winning with Glorfy around at the end (they HAVE to kill him). Not to mention the Wolves will fear attempting to kill anyone besides Glorfy due to the fact that he may in a village this size foil them (especially once he has double protections) which would allow him to reveal to us yet ANOTHER proven innocent.
So we're sitting at a population of 12, and if we decide to limit to single lynches...
lynch: 11
kill last night's: 10
lynch: 9
fail kill Glorfy: 9
lynch: 8
kill Glorfy: 7
lynch (Glorfy back): 7
fail kill Glorfy: 7
lynch: 6
kill Glorfy: 5
I'd say that those protections stretch the game out nicely, yes? The question is, is such a tactic worth it, or would Glorfy be better served to try and stay hidden another day before revealing? If he takes that route, then his protection from last night certainly dies tonight if not lynched (he will no longer have that status protection), BUT he gains the advantage of existing with double protections in a smaller sized village later in the game, which is extremely powerful!
So, the question is, does anyone think it would be worth it for Glorfy to reveal IF it seems obvious that we are looking to lynch his protection from last night? Or should he just stay hidden no matter what? I'm of the opinion that we're unlikely to lynch his protection from last night, as that individual is likely to be a rather innocent looking sort.
UNLESS of course Glorfy protected HIMSELF last night, in which case I really think he ought to come out with it so we know not to lynch him and to trust him, because if he doesn't reveal the Wolves will simply kill him tonight anyway.
(x-post with all)
(edit numbers- forgot a night)
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Last edited by the phantom; 01-31-2011 at 10:28 PM.
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