[Rikae]

I've been relying too heavily on what others reported about Shasta, and I feel the need to look for myself.
Ok, so... Shasta's statements about everyone, by Day.

Day One:

"Rikae is being... less talkative and more mysterious than usual, but then it's Rikae, so I don't know how much of that is readable."

"We have Pitch, who pinged my personal radar from the moment he said "havens forfend we do something like the Shasta lynch again!", but that's a Lottie reason so I'm going to need more to go on.
And besides that, he's suspected by an awful lot of people so far, considering. From personal experience as a wolf I know that wolves don't need to do much to push a Day 1 bandwagon right into an innocent, but it's something to look at."

"Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan (as far as I can tell they've been the most logical and down to earth so far)."

"No read on Sally, which frankly bothers me a bit."

"I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post. It makes sense to me (but that might just be because I was just a wolf with her and know how she thinks )."

"On the other hand, Legate I think I'm good with because of his last post. There were several things about Lottie I wasn't really liking, but was hard-pressed to actually put those things into words. Legate managed quite nicely."

When does Lottie "not really have suspicions"? Lottie always suspects someone. It bothers me that she apparently doesn't right now.

"As of right now I'll probably be voting for Lottie"

(votes for Lottie without comment)

I see no dream-hints here at all. Thus we can assume his first dream was innocent, but that's all
this shows. Perhaps he dreamt of Kitanna? If he dreamt of an ordo, I would expect something more clear than this, unless he deemed clarity too dangerous to be worth the trouble at this early point. Going by his later list (Agan, Legate & me) either Agan or I could have been
the dream here.

Day Two

"I don't like this. Legate goes out of his way to say how suspicious Inzil's first post makes him, and finishes with "I suspect him but I don't really"."

"I'm not sure how Wilwa's defense of her vote strikes me - the tone seems innocent enough, but I can't help but wonder if Wilwa is deflecting attention from the Sally-wagon for some reason."

"Legate's #174... something strikes me as 'off' there. I'm not sure what, exactly, but it's the part about "well this is why I suspected Lottie yesterday, but I don't suspect her anymore" when he doesn't go on to explain exactly why, just referencing 'her later posts'."

"I've never played a game with Cailin by herself, I don't think, but as of #178 I adore her!"

"Rikae raises a good point here, I think."

"Re: Pitch's #183 - Why would a Nessa Wolfrunya be hinting at a Seer-Rikae in the first place? I don't understand it."

"I don't think Mac's been passive at all, actually - in my opinion he's been one of the louder voices."

"Re: Kitanna's #195 - oy gevalt."

"I'm not sure I agree with you. That Sallywagon sprang up awfully late in the day, to be purely-innocent driven."

"Eomer is rather emphatic and callous normally - I think this is probably just a playstyle reference"

"After Mac's post calling him out for defending PItch yesterday, all this looks like to me is damage-control distancing."

(Of Boro)

"First you're "paranoid" about Inzil, but then you won't "put any weight to it", but now you're "starting to suspect" him, but wait, no, you're just "merely wary"?"

(To Legate)

(Couple comments about Zil being suspicious).

"Having to 'make oneself look innocent' implies that one is not in fact innocent - otherwise why make yourself look like something that you already are? Does this mean you suspect Nessa, Cailin?"

"Regarding Skip and his hunter claim - I don't buy it. I think he was just looking for an epic 1000th post."

"I personally think the fair thing to do would be to redistribute Kitanna's role."

"What I was saying was 'the Sallywagon sprang up very late in the day - it wouldn't surprise me if there was a wolf in the running at the time'. I didn't say 'every person in the running before Sally is a wolf'."

(To Mac)


List

Feels good about Eomer, Agan, Cailin, me, Mac, Kitanna and Lommy. Of these, his statements on Eomer and I are similar and these and the one on Agan (and Kitanna, of course) are the strongest statements. Cailin & Lommy are "no warning signs" and Mac "I hope I'm not giving him a pass...".

His comments on ???'s Skip and Manwe suggest he might dream them.

Feels slightly bad about Boro, Pitch, Nessa, Wilwa. Comment about Pitch looks like future dream possibility, too.

Feels moderately bad about Lottie & Inzil.

"No-nonsense bad" about Legate.

"I will say I don't like the idea of lynching Kitanna as per my idea earlier. I might not be opposed to lynching, say, Greenie, whom I can never read, if a submarine is what we want. Plus I know how dangerous Mufasa can be ."

"Hum. I don't like Lottie's vote. At all."

(votes Lottie)

"And in any case there doesn't seem to be as much support for a Legate lynch as I'd hoped for, so."

Day 3:

"Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!)

"

"Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa."

"Elaboration on Legate (now that I'm at a computer) - Basically, (duh) Legate is known for 180-ing, and in hindsight that was my main reason to suspect him."

"Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow - which does make me wonder if clever wolves aren't leaving them alive for precisely that reason, but still."

"Hum. Inzil going after Nessa at this late stage makes me uneasy, almost as if he's preparing a vote for her in advance.

My mind's made up."

(votes Inzil)

"Also, Inzil now jumping on Boro? Really?"

Clearly does point to a Legate-innocent dream.

Day 4:

List

Manwe tops his list to "look at today". Lots of people, however, are on that list... actually, everyone except Nessa, me, Legate and Agan is either "under the radar", "pinging my radar", and/or needs to be "looked at today". We four are the only ones he gives a clear opinion on. He also flipflops from his stance of the day before on Nessa without much reason.

List

As much discussed already, me, Agan and Legate in the "green" list. Green-yellow has Nessa at the top. Too ambiguous if he dreamt her, or does he just want to avoid making his change of opinion to obvious? Wilwa and Cailin here too, Skip, Ed & Mac yellow, Boro,
Greenie, Pitch & Manwe yellow-orange. Doesn't seem like a good idea for a seer to put a dreamed wolf in such a big group. As mentioned, no red.

Manwe-analysis

I don't agree with those who say this analysis looks like it's designed to back up his conclusion, but this:

"I think Manwe is the first person to enter my 'Red' category."

does look meaningful. It would make sense as a way to slightly obscure/justify his dream, but how, then, to explain his change of opinion on
Nessa? Not because of Manwe being a wolf, certainly, as he voted for Ed - possibly just to prepare for a shift to going after Manwe.

Analysis of Cailin

"Also, re: Agan - if you're 'green' it means I don't plan to vote you - and I wouldn't plan to vote the cobbler in any case."

Regarding his Agan/cobbler comments: she was generally considered cobblerish, and calling her innocentish would have made both her and Shasta
more conspicuous. I still think she's a dreamed innocent.

"I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though."

By itself, doesn't support the Mänwe dream - he did go after Legate pretty intensely. The best cases for a Mänwe-wolf I can see are the "red category" line and Mänwe's own behavior toDay, which is wolfish enough without any seer hints involved.

Defends his suspicions to Mänwe

"I don't believe I mentioned it at all, actually, but nice job at subtle suspicion-hopping."

(to Pitch)

"While I don't necessarily agree with lynching Nessa today, her one post so far today, in which she votes, doesn't make me very comfortable at all."

Ok, didn't dream Nessa.

"To be honest, this attitude is starting to irritate me. If you happen to be suspected by Mac, you can't do anything without being suspicious, apparently. And apparently analyzing someone whom no one else has even bothered to consider is suspicious. Shoot me now."

I know what he means, though I'm not suspected by Mac (and why not?)

"Honestly, I think more people have said Skip looks like a better choice."

(To Legate, on Cailin)

"That's a shame. I don't feel like voting you at all. "

(to Legate)

"Also, Pitch - "more and more creepy"? You need to explain yourself, considering that the last time you mentioned me you were agreeing with me about Mac."

(votes Skip)

"To put him up there. I don't really like the Elronhubbard vote or the Legate vote and I don't agree with the Nessa vote today."

Yeah, likely dreams: Me/Agan, Agan/me, Legate, Mänwe. Not totally sure, but if Mänwe is innocent, he is also the wolfiest looking innocent under suspicion
I have ever seen, so:

++Mänwe

Even if Shasta didn't dream him, he's still a good bet for a wolf.