Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya
We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.
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I concur with calculations of our chances of lynching a wolf + there's about 4% of getting a cobb.
But Wolves kill 2 of 20. (this presumes worst case scenario) There are 3 gifted in that number = 15% of "non-wolves".
Therefore I belive, that Furries have twice 15% chance of hitting a gifted. With twice 5% chance of wasting a cobbler. This is only approximate calcul, making precise ones would be way past my abilities. I always sucked at math, but the way my calculations go, we are way more screwed, than according to yours,
Nessa.
Hey, I actually invented a way to lessen wolves chance of murdering one of gifteds, we can lynch one of them ourselves!
![Big Grin](http://forum.barrowdowns.com/ubb/biggrin.gif)
Has anyone seen
Shasta?
Ok, quite insane, better go to sleep.
See you later.