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Old 10-12-2010, 08:46 AM   #354
Boromir88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwarin538 View Post
Oh, and one more thought before people come on and start voting. Let's say there hadn't been any Hunter reveals today, which out of me and Skip would have more likely been lynched? I haven't gotten very much suspicion this whole game, Skip has, perhaps there's a reason for that?

I won't be able to come on again for a few more hours because of classes and such, but I'll be on to vote (likely for Skip, unless something more crazy happens) in about 3 hours.
I'm staying back from who to trust for now until I see what Skip has to say 'bout all this...

I will say the hints you've left aside, your argument that "Nog you know I'm a smart wolf, ergo I'm not a wolf and I've failed at a cobbler before. I would not try fake reveals as a cobbler again, ergo I'm not a cobbler. Means I must be hunter" isn't all that convincing. In the very least doesn't look anymore convincing than Skip's reasons for revealing. Different situation this time mah dear, simply because you've had a bad go your previous time as cobbler doesn't mean you aren't playing it brilliantly this time around. We all know your brilliance as a villain.

With that being said, the Legate hint you left in your post does speak in your favor (unless now seeing as the hunter was the only gifted left yesterday you decided to plant hints as the cobbler for a situation like this). Plus your self-vote on Day 1 could still be a signal to the wolvsies. And your general attitude today with the combined frustration of everything looks genuine, as opposed to Skip's more defeatist attitude of "Well this is a mess, I've got no choice now."

As to whether I'm happy you still revealed? Yes, because if you're the hunter this means Skips the baddie and we can lynch him. If you're not this means you're the baddie and we lynch you. If Skip's not the hunter, and you left his claim uncontested, with the wolves advantage in voting today, if we proceeded to lynch an innocent today it's all over.

Ok. Say if Skip is the cobbler here and his claim was not contested by hunter-Wilwa. The wolves wouldn't know which one of you is the cobbler or not and with the wolves numbers today could easily steer it towards an innocent we still lose 1 in the innocent count. Meaning we go into the night with 3 wolves, 5 innocents (one being the unknown hunter). Let's then Wilwa you are the hunter, and not having to reveal, the wolves picked you to kill at night, and you took one of them down. We're still in a must lynch wolf the following day, because at this point, your gift would just balance it. This would just make it 2 wolves to 4 innocents (no hunter). It's still a must lynch wolf the following day or, during the night it goes to 3 to 2, and then the wolves make it 2-2 with their night kill.

If you're the real hunter you made a good choice. If you left Skip's claim uncontested, we likely wouldn't lynch him, but the wolves + cobbler-Skip could have steered it toward another innocent. Where even if you stayed hidden, and they by chance killed you and you killed a wolf with you, the next day is still, lynch a wolf or it's over for the village. I hope you can follow that jumbled bit of math. If you're the hunter, I never said it wouldn't be a headache to come forward and see who's telling the truth, but now we know at least one of you is false.
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