[A Little Green]

As usual in my analyses, I have not a) mentioned all his posts (eg. clarifications on stuff said before or otherwise stuff I have nothing to comment on) or b) full quotes of all the posts I quote. So, in short, I've gathered here what I found noteworthy in going through Skip's posts.

Day 1

56: Long IC and the following:

Right then. Time to hunt some wolves.

I'm always unnerved when people say that, but since innocents do it as much as wolves one can't really hold it against him..

57 (in full):

Well then, I've read the thread and all this cobbler-talk obviously stands out. Some of it strikes me as silly, and some of it strikes me as right sinister, as it is strictly theoretical at this point without any cobbler suspects and is therefore a distraction from more important business, that is, deciding on a name. I fear that what we are hearing are the treacherous tongues of Sauron.

Some other impressions.

Green is being captain obvious.

Nerwen is the one most determined to stay in character whatever that means...

Boro chides people for posting too long then promptly posts a long, rather pointless and somewhat irrational post that in many ways repeats things already stated more than once.

I also agree with Legate that Nogrod's reasoning seems a bit dull toDay. Is the old master-hunter losing his touch, or is he no longer himself. Hard to say...

As it stands I might vote Shasta toDay for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point... But I'll vote closer to the DL...

A question to Legate. What makes you single out Wilwa as especially reasonable?

Hmm. I don't like the manner of this. Of course it's almost impossible to have more than vague uneasinesses (not proper English probably but since I like the sound of that I had to write it..) on Day 1, but Skip's vagueness is fishy - he's very careful not to say he suspects the people he mentions but rather leaves it at "this might be a bit odd, or might not be..."

82 (in full):

hm, have been getting phone-calls all night, uhm Osanwe Kenta calls I mean, and never really had time for a closer look at people... Would rather see Shasta than Lottie go though...

94 (in full):

You know, I'm fine with ...

++Shasta

Easy, though innocents did that too. Don't like the phrasing.

Day 2

124 (in full):

Oh dear. Has the Power of the Lord of Waters withdrawn from the Great River that flows beside this accursed isle at last? We have slain the one who could've been most useful for all of us!

But onwards, forwards!

I gotta sleep now but two things I leave for you to discuss if you will.

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point. A mistake, obviously.

But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.

Another thing. I suppose that had Shasta dreamed an innocent the first Night we'd find no clues as to who that was. But if he did dream a wolf, wouldn't he have left something for us should he chance to die? And Shasta's main suspect seem to have been Pitch. Could he have dreamed of him?


Aurë entuluva!

The first paragraph strikes me as false - but then again could be only IC so I wouldn't read too much into it. The latter part is what interests me more. He "leaves things to discuss" while he's away. His demand of explanation from Lottie is reasonable, though could also be read as a wolf sniffing an easy lynch-candidate. Especially when coupled with the second "thing to discuss", Pitchie as Shasta's possible dream. Now there's nothing wrong with that, but what worries me is the same I pointed out in his Day 1 post of impressions: he is careful not to say he himself suspects somebody, but rather encourages others to. I don't like it. Also, this post looks a bit like the wolves have plotted at Night that getting either Lottie or Pitch lynched, and Skip starts the work. I'm not convinced a Skippywolf would be so obvious though.

172: Answering a question about why he didn't see Shasta's Pitch-suspicion as a possible sign of Seerism if he considered Lottie's Shasta-suspicion as such.

Why not? I suppose that although Shasta's accusation of Pitch also did seem weak (something almost unavoidable on a Day 1 unless a wolf makes a very foolish and blatant mistake I think), Lottie's motivation to attack Shasta was just plain ridiculous if she had honest intentions and as she, as we now know, isn't the Seer.

I mean, what in the name of Eru Illuvatar could been seen as suspicious in that? Not sure if a wolf would be so careless though...

Not convinced by this reasoning, but that's about differing opinions and not about innocent/guilty.

192 (in full):

But okay, you do have a point too. It's better to have some alternatives, more might be learned from that.

So as the votes are now piling up in Pitch I'll go for:

++Legate

he says a lot but isn't really helpful (that theoretic Cobbler-talk is a prime example)

I - don't - like this. He was among the very first to point out the obvious scenario that Pitch was Shasta's dream - he left it for us to discuss at the very beginning of the Day - and yet he doesn't vote Pitch when the voting time comes but instead makes an odd vote for Legate. If he truly considered it was a real possibility Pitch was Shasta's dream, where did this vote come from? There is a reason, sure enough, but it doesn't look as convincing as "potential Seer-dreamed wolf". And we can't assume Skip disagreed with the "Pitch was dreamed of" -theory since he was among the first to bring that up.


Day 3

228 (in full; underlining mine):

Man, this has been a very unfortunate start to the game. First the Seer, and with him he takes an innocent, and now our ranger! I'm not too happy about how Shasta singled out someone he didn't know the role of, that made Day 2 an all too easy ride for the wolves.

What Nogrod says pretty much mirrors my spontaneous thoughts of how things have played out.

Agreed that the wolves would have had no need to push the lynching of Pitch. Nor would they stand out for participating in it, mind you. Seeing how our Seer had singled him out on Day 1, The noose was tightening around Pitch's neck pretty much from the start.

I also agree that Legate is beginning to look bad. Will review his actions now...

A few things I dislike in this post. First off, the tone of the first paragraph doesn't look genuine. That could be just my imagination though so I'm not giving too much weight to that. The rest is, once again, more noteworthy. I'm especially concerned about the underlined part. It doesn't only look like latching onto Nog supporting the same suspicion he had yesterDay in a very fishy manner, but also I'm wondering how come Legate is only beginning to look bad - considering that Skip found him bad enough yesterDay to vote over someone he himself had pointed out as a possible Seer-dreamed wolf.

He then proceeds to analyse Legate (lost the post numbers, too lazy to check), this being his conclusion:

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

Again, understandable if he's innocent, clever if he's a wolf: backing off a little but being "still worried" leaves a nice open door both ways, depending on what others think of Legate.

236 (in full):

Have had a quick look at Inziladun too. Funny thing, when looking through his posts there's precious little that seem worth quoting. He, if anyone, has been threading very carefully. Not posting much, sort of poking around, now and then raising slight concerns about people without pressing it too hard..

ToDay he focusses on why Glirdan was targeted. Why is this so important to us now, Inzil?

This strikes me as slightly odd. To me it looks more or less like he's describing the usual Inzil, who's always careful and slippery regardless of role, and again, he's raising slight doubts without openly suspecting. Talking about treading carefully...

237 (in full):

Yeah but didn't pretty much everyone vote Shasta anyway? And I wouldn't discount those first couple of votes either. Especially since the circumstances around Lottie's vote really was what set the whole thing in motion.

I don't like this either, the way he offhandedly discards the validity of suspecting him based on his Shasta-vote because everyone did it anyway, and then goes off to turn the suspicion instead to Lottie and the other first voters (for voting Shasta).


And that's it. The early parts are the things that made me vote Skip yesterDay, only organised. I have to say he hasn't exactly improved since then. Quite the contrary, after looking through his posts he looks even fishier than before. The major things I have against him are a) his easy yet crucially placed bandwagon-vote for Shasta and the easy discarding of any possible suspiciousness therein; b) his pointing out Pitch being a possible dreamed wolf, yet still voting Legate for lynch with rather weaker reasons; and c) his general manner of encouraging others to suspect instead of openly suspecting himself.


EDIT: wow, x'ed since Nerwen's 245. This took longer than I thought..