I'm looking at
Nogrod here on the assumption that the wolves thought he was the Seer, which as we'll see he hinted at very heavily– with a view to working out who the wolves might have
thought his dreams were. I've included his thoughts on dead players, because a "Seer" talking about players with known roles in the same terms as unknowns can be a clue about whether he's actually hinting. (Does that make sense?)
Nogrod, Day 1, first half.
#57.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog.
This Sally - Lottie - tp triangle looks just a bit too obvious to be true. But the moral highground of Shasta - Nerwen - Lommy trio is kind of too neat as well. And the carefulness of Legate -Zil - Glirdy looks soo suspicious...
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Suspicious of
tp's promise not to lynch those who elect him.
#87. Discusses voting strategy. Wants multiple reps.
#88. Ditto.
#89. Ditto.
#102.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog.
So how is it... tp has two votes (enough) and Lommy and Nerwen have one each?
I have nothing against those three ending up as representatives. Basically I have nothing against more or less ayone becoming a representative at this stage of the game: it would be interesting to learn more about everyone.
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Rep-votes
Izzy.
#104. Voting strategy. Frustrated at
Mira.
#219. Very suspicious of
phantom. Boro is "odd" and
Legate's posting "makes him nervous".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
But I can say right now that you reps should have very strong reasons if you would lynch Shasta. It's not the fact that he argues against tp (tp might be innocent anyway), but it's the way he does it. I'd be almost as assured of Foley's innocence, but not just that much.
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#244. Considers lynching
phantom. Suspicious of
Sally and
Lottie. Doesn't like me, both for "attacking"
Mira and "defending"
Boro. Disputes
Lommy's belief that SoE among the reps would be bad. Suspicious of
Boro.
#246.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
Great udders of relief! Kath is here, naturally - on technical terms - missing D1...
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#250. Highly critical of phantom's explanations for his conduct.
#255. List. Suspects
me, Boro, Lottie and the
phantom. "50-50" about
Sally; torn about
Izzy; tends to trust
Wilwa and
Rune. Is slightly more suspicious of
Shasta than before and less so of
Legate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Mira I think was clearly someone who didn't read the thread - and as such not someone I would vote for a representative (another promise here) - and where Nerwen's attack on her looks like reeally bad.
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257. Lists
Celuien, Glirdy, Greenie, Kath, Steve and Inzil as those of whom he has little to say.
Comments: Who, then, could his "Night One dream" have been? It's difficult to say, and in fact it's possible the wolves didn't look too hard at Day One, since the hints on Day Two would likely have been enough to make them jump on him, as long as there was no glaring anomaly, such as proclaiming one of them an innocent. At a guess, it could be
Lottie (Elf, obviously) or
Mira (innocent)– this based on the way he overreacts to my very mild "attack" on her. He is, of course, also very suspicious of
the phantom.
Nogrod, Day 2, first half.
#386. "I'm here".
#391. Sally posts suspiciously, but probably not an Elf because of
Lottie's actions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be. Also, if I'm right in what he is doing he makes perfect sense in his own way we all should be used to.
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#393.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
phantom: Just a question. What if your initial premise is wrong? I'm somehow getting more and more worried it might be... I mean you have a decent quess there but the world might work differently.
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#400. Virtually a repeat of #391. Again argues that
Sally is innocent because of
Lottie's vote, and says of
phantom:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
phantom's actions just cry for the seer to dream of him. And looking at the mess he has managed to make - two Days more or less talking only about him - would make the seer more or less irresponsible if s/he didn't dream of him and check him.
If you think you are bored to talk about tp then let him be and leave him to the seer.
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#405. Considers who to vote for rep. Would have liked
Rune, except that his drunkenness would give him an "alibi", making his lynch-vote hard to read.
Legate "observant" but hard to read. Tends to trust
Lommy for her vote and because "her frustrations felt genuine".
#407.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green
I'm still suspicious of Sally - I totally get the argument for her innocence, but her every post screams elf.
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Welcome to the club!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
It's Day 2 and I'm still not suspecting Nog , wonder if that's because he's actually an elf this time! (!!!)
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I could actually return the amazement... and the implications.
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#410. Votes
Legate for rep.
Nogrod, Day 2, second half.
#454. Thinks
Sally and
tp innocent, wants to check
Lottie's other contacts.
#469. After checking, agrees with me that she didn't really have any. Explains belief that Sally and tp should be left to the Seer in vague terms:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Well, so far (from the mid of D1 about) I have been guided by an interpretation of the general situation that points it being wiser to check them and not lynch them right away.
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Makes a case for
Wilwa's being an Elf.
#475.
Wilwa suspicious.
Rune's composure might be Elvish. "Needs to look" at
Zil and
Cel.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Sally I would leave to the seer as I said before. Someone actually noted that it might take a few Days before the seer comes out - that's just the better, for that would mean more information.
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#480. Analyses Cel. Finds her less worrying than before. Replies to Shasta:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
I've noted several things to comment on, not least of which is Nogrod and his insistence on leaving everything to the Seer. He's mentioned it at least twice now - "Leave Phantom to the Seer! Leave Sally to the Seer!" - and I call shenanigans. Nogrod, you're being absurd.
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Tell me Shasta, why not to wait for the seer and be cool with it? Give me one good reason. And first of all think...
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#485.
Quote:
phantom: stop that "I'm the known orc and everyone's having a conspiracy to lynch me" -parade, please.
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#489. Agrees with
Shasta that there is a possible bandwagon on
Wilwa, but still finds her the best option.
#491. QUotes rules about the OoUA, bolding the following passage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nog
Quote:
Originally Posted by The rules
The orc of unknown allegiance appears as as such to the seer, should xe be dreamt of. If the seer dreams of xim before xe chooses sides, the seer will be updated as to xer side once xe has
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You all know the choice has been made toDay.
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#492. Votes to lynch
Wilwa. (Wilwa 2)
Comments: Based on this, it looks as if his supposed Night 2 dream was either
Sally (innocent) or
the phantom (innocent)– the latter would be the most logical, especially given how much
Nogrod had suspected him the Night before (although the same is true of
Sally to a lesser extent).
By innocent here I just mean "non-Elf", since I am trying to look at this from the Elvish point of view, and they of course only know who
they are. (As a little side-note, though, if I'm right in guessing the wolves think or thought of phantom as a possible OoUA,
Nog's cryptic post at #491 might have been taken as confirmation of this.)
There
is one point against all this:
Nogrod's post at #485, where he tells
phantom to stop saying he's a known Orc– is that something a Seer would say to a person he'd dreamed?
The other, very outside possibility is that he "dreamed"
Greenie as an Elf– see #407. However, the fact that
Nog said no more of this, and was more than happy to lynch someone else should have tipped the Elves off, not to mention the fact that his actual "hint" posts (#391, #400, #469, #480) were all about the
phantom and
Sally. Still, Elves do panic sometimes.
EDIT:X'd since my last post.