Interesting analysis, Agan. One of the best I've read in a while. Doesn't mean you're right or wrong, mind; I just enjoyed the style.
My problem, which I've been struggling with for a couple of hours, is that I suspect Loslote more, but fully expect there to be more support for lynching Sally (I'm talking about my two main suspects here).
Still, in my opinion, Loslote deserves to die. She made, to my mind, a vague gifted hint to make critics (skip & myself) back off - to back off from fairly legitimate questioning of her playing style, may I add. A style which seems to have changed since then (as the village has grown smaller and her role thus more prominent, I will concede).
She obviously survived this gifted hint.
She then made another vague gifted hint, saying that she was a thousand times more sure of my guilt than Aganzir's (that could be a paraphrase but those were basically the words). If she says that about any other villager, I'm voting for him/her, because that looks seerish to me. However, I'm in the privileged position of knowing that she is either making absurd claims about a blind guess, or actually lying.
Because of the stakes, I think she's lying. That's why she gets my vote.
But I do guess that Sally's the other wolf.
++LOSLOTE
And now bedtime.