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satansaloser2005 · 08-05-2010, 04:38 PM

So if we want to know who to vote we need to know who not to vote for, toDay at least. However, I think I have toMorrow's lynch sealed.

Nerwen is probably not Hephaestus because she could have saved BG on Day One, but instead put in a throwaway vote for Nog which basically ensured that BG was lynched.

Shasta could be Hephaestus, for the opposite reason. He voted to bring Steve to three votes (to BG’s five at the time) and after that more people started to vote for Steve. This was almost certainly a bandwagon vote to save BG, and why else would he save her? She was his lover.

Phantom could be Hephaestus, but I don’t think it’s very likely. He voted to close Steve’s vote gap with BG but to be honest I think we all knew she was doomed at that point, so it could have been just for show, so that if Steve was lynched later and was the cursed, Phantom could do his shiny ‘I told you so’ dance or whatever. He does rather like to do that.

Mira, based on Day One....she was one of the deciding votes. Probably not Hephaestus. Of course it’s possible she was counting on the entire “Steve is cursed” discussion to save BG’s hide, but I think it’s highly unlikely she would take such a high risk as BG’s lover.

Lal voted soon enough that I can’t find a voting connection strong enough to affect my opinions. The same goes for Foley.

I’m not Hephaestus because....well, I’m not. Derp.

So right now my favorite choice for Hephaestus is Shasta, seconded possibly by Lal or Foley. Everyone else (with the exception of Phantom) had a major part in dooming BG, and I can’t see Hephaestus doing that right at the start of the game.

(Note: I removed most of my meta-reasoning before I posted this, because some facts and RL opinions of other villagers was influencing my opinion on people’s votes. Thus, I draw these conclusions from the likelihood of someone acting a certain way based solely on their role.)

ETA: Awwww, he just left. Where's the fun in that?

08-05-2010, 04:38 PM	#1127
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	So if we want to know who to vote we need to know who not to vote for, toDay at least. However, I think I have toMorrow's lynch sealed. Nerwen is probably not Hephaestus because she could have saved BG on Day One, but instead put in a throwaway vote for Nog which basically ensured that BG was lynched. Shasta could be Hephaestus, for the opposite reason. He voted to bring Steve to three votes (to BG’s five at the time) and after that more people started to vote for Steve. This was almost certainly a bandwagon vote to save BG, and why else would he save her? She was his lover. Phantom could be Hephaestus, but I don’t think it’s very likely. He voted to close Steve’s vote gap with BG but to be honest I think we all knew she was doomed at that point, so it could have been just for show, so that if Steve was lynched later and was the cursed, Phantom could do his shiny ‘I told you so’ dance or whatever. He does rather like to do that. Mira, based on Day One....she was one of the deciding votes. Probably not Hephaestus. Of course it’s possible she was counting on the entire “Steve is cursed” discussion to save BG’s hide, but I think it’s highly unlikely she would take such a high risk as BG’s lover. Lal voted soon enough that I can’t find a voting connection strong enough to affect my opinions. The same goes for Foley. I’m not Hephaestus because....well, I’m not. Derp. So right now my favorite choice for Hephaestus is Shasta, seconded possibly by Lal or Foley. Everyone else (with the exception of Phantom) had a major part in dooming BG, and I can’t see Hephaestus doing that right at the start of the game. (Note: I removed most of my meta-reasoning before I posted this, because some facts and RL opinions of other villagers was influencing my opinion on people’s votes. Thus, I draw these conclusions from the likelihood of someone acting a certain way based solely on their role.) ETA: Awwww, he just left. Where's the fun in that? __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.