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Old 08-05-2010, 08:09 AM   #1101
Nerwen
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So, I thought I'd look at Kath-Hestia on Days Four and Five (others are irrelevant), with a view to working out whether she was a true Seer, and if so, who she might have dreamed. I'd not like to make any guesses either way based on her single, very confused post on Day Two.

Kath, Day Four

#923. Missed Day Three "due to busyness and ... ahem ... drunkenness." Assures Zil she will not risk modfire because
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
I'm not about to cause the player list to drop any further after toDay's happenings with a Shirriff AND our true Seer gone.
Is bewildered by Zeus's actions. Votes Rikae.

Comment: By Zeus! That "drunkeness" remark was unfortunate! There's not much to get out of this post, except that the reference to "our true Seer" may have been meant as a clue that Kath herself was false. (She should have known by then whether she was or not.)


#925. Lists roles and players.


#925 and #931. Analyses on various players– no really strong opinions and goes back and fourth quite a bit; sees Lalaith, Sally and I as most likely villains, and will look at us closer toMorrow. Doesn't think phantom is Zeus; thinks I or Lalaith might be, while Lalaith also might be Dionysus. Between these two posts she lists a total of eight(!) players as potential wolves, with no-one at all definitely innocent.

Comments: I don't think there are Seer-hints in here. It looks more like someone trying to puzzle things out, based on general impressions. She doesn't sound like she knows who anyone is.


#932. Banter: tells Sally she's beaten her at making a role-list.


Kath, Day Five

#991. Denies her drunkenness comment was a hint. Explains to Folwren how we know Hestia chose a Seer. Sally might be Zeus. Jokes about lynching tp. Foley, if a wolf, deserves to win; Mira doesn't. Doesn't think Foley and I are packmates.


#996. Tells Folwren the phantom (#994) was just kidding.


#1000. Lalaith, Shasta, Sally and Foley might be wolves, though Sally is more likely Dionysus or Zeus. She has no idea about Nienna. Mira is too uninvolved to be a wolf.


#1005. Analyses votes. Concludes Lalaith and I are the most likely wolves, based on our votes. Also thinks Mira could be a wolf, because of her "sudden burst of energy on Day 3".

Comments: This is going to sound petty, but I'm still annoyed at how careless and inaccurate Kath's analysis was– see my response at #1034 for details. Yes, I'm sorry we went and lynched her, but all the same...

Last post: Votes Lalaith.


General Comments: That Lalaith, Sally and Folwren show up more than once in Kath's "might be a wolf" category is slightly eyebrow-raising; however she also lists the first two as likely Zeuses and Dionysuses, while she's just lukewarm about Folwren. Besides, Hestia wasn't forbidden to reveal. (Also, she has me as a wolf-suspect, and I happen to know I'm not one– but that's of course arguing from my own point of view.) Consistent about phantom's non-Zeus-hood (says this twice, and never changes her mind). Those are the only possible hints I can see there, and they're pretty thin.



Conclusion: I don't think Kath picked tum to dream. There's nothing that looks to me like a real Seer-hint, and in fact I think she deliberately left at least one to the contrary (#923).

EDIT: X'd with Foley.
EDIT: Changed "Like a Seer-hint" to "like a real Seer-hint".
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Last edited by Nerwen; 08-05-2010 at 08:24 AM.
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