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Old 07-29-2010, 12:04 AM   #525
Loslote
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
I didn't overlook it, of course. You overlooked that I commented on it.
The fact that you commented on it was meant to be part of the point - you're picking and choosing. You mention it for a matter of wording, then say that I didn't use the argument Day 1.

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Anyway, you said you would look for Nogrod depending on Eonwe's innocence. Eonwe did not get lynched, and your reasons for Nogrod toDay are independent of Eonwe's role, but are founded on Nogrod not voting for him. The case you presented toDay was readily available yesterDay.
No, I said that if Steve was proven innocent, we really needed to look at Nog. The fact that he wasn't lynched and proven innocent doesn't negate this, it simply makes it less obvious.

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You only picked this one item out of my reasons to suspect you. I usually do that when I'm a wolf: picking the few things I can defend myself against to discredit a whole analysis.
Alright:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Loslote

I suspected her, but without really knowing why, so here's the analysis. She also seems to have been forgotten by everyone, so I hope this might change it a little.

She's the first to make actual points, which one could interpret as a wolf trying to look helpful and not banter too much. However, her following posts are rather "light" in points. A lot about roles etc. and a lot about people's possible hints.
Yeah, that's me. I'm rather silly. I'm rather okay with this.

Quote:
Her first actual suspicion is only on page 4 - erroneously thinking Nerwen's hint might point to her being Persephone. She believes the theory that Eonwe is the cursed, but doesn't want to lynch him (sensible opinion, I think).
Wait, by "only" do you mean I should have waited longer? Like, for instance, Nog, The Phantom, and you did?

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Makes a list which has everybody innocent except for slight suspicions towards me and Autume. (Not stepping on too many people's toes. However, it's just a mid-Day1 list.) Disagrees with me about Zeus's almightiness. (Being the most mighty and being almighty is not the same.) She agrees with me that we shouldn't lynch BG, and suggests me instead (and Autume). She keeps on stating to want to lynch me and her multiple times, and that I find very suspicious. In her list, Tum and me stood out as most suspicious, but it looked more like we were 2/10 in a sea of 1/10. Looking at #231, #234, #260, it really seems to me like she used the list to be able to justify singling out two and then being able to keep those around as prime suspects without having to answer any more questions about it.
I was partly trying to remind Tum that there were other options, something she adamently denies existed.

Could you explain the bold? I'm afraid I don't follow your argument or your example.

Quote:
She votes Eonwe since Tum and I are not going to be lynched, Eonwe is probably the cursed, and everybody else is still innocent. She notes that BG-voters need to be looked at. Sensible, but also convenient for a wolf who voted someone else. She covers the case of Eonwe being lynched by saying if he's innocent, we need to look at Nogrod (the unpicked cursed villager is an ordo in the tally. If the theory is right, we definitely would have lynched an innocent).
I was under the impression that he would be labled "Dionysis." The BeiGei voters, especially later on, were suspicious. Convenient? More like I thought that particular bandwagon was very ill-advised and wanted no part in it.

Quote:
ToDay she starts with suppressed anger and a new list, which looks suspiciously like the old one, except that Nogrod is suspicious now, too. She backs off me a little bit. She suspects Nogrod because he didn't vote for Eonwe. Not exactly a great argument, but alright, except that she could have made the same point yesterDay, after his vote, already. But yesterDay she was content to carry only Tum and me around.
Supressed anger, yes. Could have made the same point, yes. As it happens, I did.

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There are several things that could be both evil or good, but the way she handled her suspicions of Autume and me, talks about the BG-waggon and Eonwe's possible innocence (each on its own fine, but in combination it looks bad), and the reason for suspecting Nogrod look rather bad. Prime suspect now, since I lack other strong suspects at the moment.
Why is the combination particularly bad?

If I'm alive toMorrow, I'll have analysis, don't worry. I was pressed for time toDay, as I had stated explicitly more than once.
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