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Originally Posted by Paranoia
To Shasta: Your overwhelming attempt to shifting your focus on the bear today seems to indicate to me that you don't care about hunting morphs; indeed, the primary danger is still the morphs, no matter how diminished the traitor is in effect. Their numbers still give them a leg up on everyone else.
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If the Morphs had more than one member remaining, I'd agree with you. As they don't, I respectfully disagree.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Paranoia
7- 3 (the lynch and the night kill) = 4. If we hit right, assuming traitor. 7-3 = 4. We still lose, unless the assassin strikes true tonight. Assuming we hit the morph. 7-2 = 5. Pretty good odds, with the traitor basically stuck with no way to win, and the bear having to survive two rounds. Hitting the bear leaves us at 7-2 = 5, and assuming the traitor isn't hit, leaves us in a dire position with only one more mistake costing us the game.
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If you'd like me to mention all the factors that I can think of that affect this total, I will. Let's see...
1. We lynch the Bear, and the Assassin kills the Morph. Village wins.
2. We lynch the Morph, and the Bear kills an innocent. Village is down to five, with one baddie.
3. We lynch the Traitor, the Assassin kills the Morph, and the Bear kills an innocent. Village is down to four, with one baddie.
4. We lynch the Traitor, the Morph kills an innocent, and the Bear kills an innocent. Village is down to four, with two baddies. Village loses.
5. We lynch the Traitor and the Morph and Bear kill each other. Village wins.
7-9. Replace "Traitor" with "Innocent".
10. We lynch the Bear, and the Morph kills an innocent. Village is down to five, with one baddie and the Traitor remaining. At least one villager knows the identity of the Traitor.
So you see, there are plenty of ways for things to turn out, but the best situations all revolve around killing the Bear
first.