[Paranoia]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

On Paranoia - An analysis of Bear-ery

Now, this analysis will be shaded a bit differently than my previous ones. Given that bears are much harder to catch than wolves, this analysis will concentrate more on underlying attitudes than hard cold data.

Before I even start with the post-by-post analysis, Paranoia has the least amount of posts of any player, living or dead, save Mira who was modkilled for not being able to participate. That seems to be a point against him already, since bears are likely to not want to draw attention to themselves.

And I had the least amount of posts last game too; post count != bear or Morph, Tanner.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

#30 - IC banter. In it, he scolds Eomer for his baseless accusations against BG, mentions that BG's alignment will be known "sooner or later", and IC-accuses Rikae.

#99 - Kind of comes down hard on BG here.



Also claims Eomer's vote is "OMGUS" (translated as "Oh my gosh, you suck" and is commonly used to denote a vote for personal reasons rather than game-related ones... i.e. revenge votes), but it's not, not really. Explains that he "didn't have much time", which may be true, but it also offers a reason for a wereBear not to be as active as he/she might be normally. Puts suspicion on Sally's vote. Ends up voting BG, and does a list. Puts myself and Izzy both in the "Mostly Harmless" category. This is slightly meta and possibly a disregardable point, but I can't help but wonder if a Bearanoia wasn't making an attempt there to butter up the two people he knows outside BD.

In case you hadn't noticed by the nice little note next to Eomer's name, I was basing a whole lot of my suspicions based on BG's roleflip; bg flipped town. People shifted spots.

Originally Posted by Shasta

#105 - Continues explaining why BG's explanation of her list isn't satisfactory. I can't say much about this, given that I did the same thing, but I've noticed that a commonly-used Bearish tactic is to concentrate on one subject to the exclusion of all else to give the appearance of being helpful.

Uh, I did a whole lot more than just explain why BG's explanation was unsatisfactory. I explained what else about her I found suspicious. read things through before condemning me on one point.

Originally Posted by Shasta

#211 - Mega-post, defending himself against Pitch and condemning Wilwa. He didn't do too much else during this day, and this was an awfully zealous defense... over-zealous, maybe? Were-Bears can't afford to gather too much suspicion - they're their only chance to win, after all. Maybe Noia was trying to defuse suspicion of him at the root. He also is "very much inclined to think" Lottie innocent. Lottie was a pretty clear discussion leader, given how much she posted - possibly more buttering-up?

Well let's see. Of course it's going to be a zealous defense, considering I am my only 'for sure' innocent. Who else can I rely on to defend myself except myself? Again, defending oneself is all well and good; if you have an issue with me, pick out how I was suspicious in defending myself. And yeah, I was. Based primarily on interactions with her and how she was handling herself this round rather than the last one just made me instinctively think she was innocent.

#217 - Helps winty with coding.

#222 - Helps winty with coding.

#248 - Several things here, so let me quote:



First off, I get what Rikae said about the "smugness". It's almost as if a bearaNoia is congratulating us for getting rid of threats to him.
[/quote] Why yes, I am congratulating you on getting rid of threats to the, you know. town.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Secondly, the "oh the bear's not a threat" tone of his second line.

I said there was still the issue of what killed Sally. I, however, believe the potential for the traitor to meet up with the morph to be a more pressing threat. Which it is.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Thirdly, how he asks Pitch, myself, and Rikae for such-and-such. This is a tactic I've used before myself - it's a way to look like you're participating, but actually you're getting others to act as your smokescreen.

Fun fact. I work from 8 until 4:30. I leave my apartment at about 7ish in the morning. I usually don't get time to get online until late. I asked pitch to respond to my accusations at the end of day 2. I asked you and Rikae to keep it up because I liked what you were doing.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Conclusion - well, I can't see any reason for Noia to not be the bear, and I've got a pretty good feeling based on what he's said that he is... so I'm thinking I'll probably vote him today and Pitch tomorrow.

You could at least wait for me to respond, you know; your points are all really based on taking me out of context and using one post, and moreover, one line in specific to condemn me as the bear.